Fertility rates are falling around the world, and most people think human reproduction will soon slip below the so-called replacement rate, where the number of babies born can't keep pace

全球的生育率正在下降，大多數人認為人類繁殖很快就會降到所謂的替代率以下，也就是出生的嬰兒數量無法跟上

with the number of people who are dying.

死亡人數的速度。

That means the world's population will level out and then start to fall, which has some people worried.

這意味著世界人口將會趨於穩定，然後開始下降，這讓一些人感到擔憂。

>> If people don't have more children, civilization is going to crumble. But others argue population decline is exactly what the world needs.

>>如果人們不多生孩子，文明將會崩潰。但其他人認為人口下降正是世界所需要的。

>> Human beings have overrun the world. >> So, do our societies, does our species need more babies or fewer? To explore this question, we randomly assigned ourselves sides? I have a coin here.

>>人類已經佔領了整個世界。>>那麼，我們的社會，我們的物種需要更多嬰兒還是更少？為了探索這個問題，我們隨機分配了立場。我這裡有一枚硬幣。

>> Oh, good. >> If it's heads, I argue that we need more people. If it's tails, I argue that we need less people.

>>哦，好的。>>如果是正面，我主張我們需要更多人。如果是反面，我主張我們需要更少人。

>> Gotcha. Okay. >> All right. I got tails. Okay, >> now we got to go find support for those arguments.

>>明白了。好的。>>好的。我得到反面。好的，>>現在我們得去找支持這些論點的論據。

>> Let's do this. >> We spend the next 3 weeks reading papers and talking to experts to prepare for the fact check debate you're about to watch. Get ready

>>開始吧。>>我們接下來三週閱讀論文並與專家交談，為你即將觀看的事實查核辯論做準備。準備好

for a town showdown. They're facing up with facts so that you get the low down.

迎接知識的衝擊吧。

Today, Adam will be arguing for the proposition that there are too many people in the world, and Joss will be arguing that there are not enough. This sound, that's the timer. And this

>>我們與Riverside合作製作這一集。Riverside是一個一體化的播客和視頻錄製平臺。

sound, that's for when there's a visual on screen for you if you want to see it.

>>如果你曾經想過錄製播客或YouTube視頻，Riverside讓這變得非常容易。你只需在瀏覽器中點擊開始錄製。

There'll be seven rounds, and at the end, you can vote for which side won on Patreon. And you can also head over there to hear Adam and Joss debrief the debate.

>>是的，最棒的部分是它在本地錄製你的音頻和視頻，所以即使你的網路不穩定，錄製仍然清晰。

>> Round one. Adam, you have two minutes to make your first argument. Great. I just want to start by taking a real hard look at some of these numbers. When our

>>然後，你可以使用他們的AI工具自動創建短片、轉錄和字幕。

parents were born, there were about 2 1/2 billion people on this planet. All of human history, we'd grown to 2 1/2 billion. But to add the next 2.5 billion

>>如果你想試試，你可以使用我們描述中的鏈接和代碼howtown獲得10%的折扣。

took just one generation. By the time you and I were born, there were nearly 5 billion people on Earth. And that's going to double again. The UN's median

>>好的，讓我們開始辯論。Joss將主張我們需要更少的人，Adam將主張我們需要更多的人。

projection says we're going to max out around 10 billion. And even their lowest fertility projection says we're going to keep growing to 9 billion people.

>>計時器會提醒我們每輪還剩多少時間。讓我們開始吧。

There's really no denying that this huge population explosion has hurt the ecosystems that we're part of, that we rely on. And Joss is arguing that somehow 9 billion is not enough. That we

>>第一輪：開場陳述。Joss，你先開始。

need more human beings on this earth. But I'm going to show over the course of this debate that a smaller population is actually a good thing. It's better for

>>好的。我的立場是世界需要更少的人。讓我解釋為什麼。

the future of our our civilization. It's better for the health of the planet and we can get there without crippling our economies. But before we dive into that,

首先，我們來看看數字。地球上現在有大約80億人，比一個世紀前多了三倍。

I just want to say that everyone should be able to have the number of children that they want. No government should be coercing people to have more babies or fewer babies. Government should be

>>是的，這是一個驚人的增長。

removing obstacles and empowering their citizens to pursue their choices. And the reality is that right now people are choosing to have fewer babies. Every few years the CDC interviews thousands of

>>對。這種人口爆炸對地球造成了巨大的壓力。我們正在耗盡自然資源，破壞生態系統，加劇氣候變化。

American women and ask them if they want children and how many children they intend to have. And a growing share of women say they don't want kids at all.

>>這些都是有記錄的事實。

And if you add up all the intended kids, the average comes out to 1.8 children per woman. So that's below replacement rate. That's means a declining population. And if you ask women under

>>沒錯。研究表明，人口規模是環境影響的主要驅動因素之一。更多的人意味著更多的消費，更多的污染，更多的碳排放。

25, that number falls even further. It's 1.5 children per women. I'm arguing that we shouldn't fight that trend. We shouldn't fight these people's choices.

>>但有人可能會說，問題不是人口數量，而是消費模式。

We should embrace it because this is an opportunity to restore the population down to what it was when our parents were growing up. And that can only help

>>這是一個公平的觀點，我稍後會回來討論。但現在，讓我指出的是，即使我們改變消費模式，更少的人仍然意味著更少的總體影響。

us solve some of the world's trickiest problems.

>>好的。Adam，你有90秒回應。

>> Okay, Joss, you have 90 seconds to respond.

>>謝謝。我的立場是世界實際上可能需要更多的人，或者至少我們不應該太擔心人口下降。

>> Okay, you really need to look at the total population numbers charted alongside the population growth rates.

>>有趣。告訴我更多。

And that's where it really becomes clear that our growth rates peaked in the 1960s. So in this way, demography is kind of like spacetime where we are looking at the stars and we're seeing

>>好的。首先，生育率正在全球範圍內下降，這意味著人口增長已經在放緩。

what they looked like hundreds of years ago because of the lag. The population boom that you just talked about reflects achievements that have happened mostly in the past. In the past 75 years, what

>>是的，這是事實。

we're really talking about are about 4 billion African and Asian babies who lived instead of died. This is an incredible achievement that should be celebrated. And now as our fertility

>>對。事實上，許多國家已經低於替代率，這意味著他們的人口將開始縮小。

rates decline, that is a result of improvements in education, equal rights, and freedom, which we should also celebrate. But then we have to decide where we want to go from here. you've

>>這對環境來說可能是好事。

already kind of won this debate. We are on track to see declining population.

>>也許。但這也帶來了一些嚴重的經濟和社會挑戰。當人口老齡化和縮小時，你會面臨勞動力短缺、養老金危機、以及創新的減少。

That is going to happen. And the people who are young today will decide how far and how fast we decline. Um you're right that the number of children people want

>>這些都是合理的擔憂。

has gone down. But when you ask most people, they would say the ideal number of children is two. But all around the world, fertility rates are dropping below that. So, it's not obvious that

>>是的。而且，歷史上，人口增長一直與經濟增長和技術進步相關聯。更多的人意味著更多的想法，更多的創新，更多的問題解決者。

every additional decline in fertility once we have societies with equal rights and freedom are a result of free choices rather than new barriers that societies have put up that are keeping people from

>>好的。第二輪：證據對決。你們各有60秒出示你們最好的證據。Adam先開始。

living the lives that they want. >> Yeah. I mean, we definitely want to remove any barriers to what people want.

>>好的。讓我談談人口與創新之間的關係。

But I do I I I'm curious about that uh that those surveys that say they ask the question, what do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?

有研究表明，在歷史上，人口較多的社會往往有更多的技術創新。這被稱為規模效應。

And most people say two or three. Um, but I think that they're asking the wrong question because that those answers are skewed by sort of cultural norms, nostalgia. Every sitcom has two

>>有趣。你能給出一個具體的例子嗎？

to three kids in a family. And so you might just say that as as sort of describing what you're observing. But you know, in those surveys, I saw one recently that asked, "What do

>>當然。看看工業革命。它發生在人口快速增長的時期，而人口增長推動了對新技術的需求和創造新技術的人才庫。

you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?" Only 2% said that the ideal size is zero. But when they ask people if they want kids,

>>但相關性不一定意味著因果關係。

nearly 10% say no. So, how do you square that number? A tenth of people say they don't want kids. Only 2% think that's the ideal number. I think that's because

>>這是真的。但還有更多的證據。經濟學家Michael Kremer的一篇著名論文顯示，在整個人類歷史上，技術進步的速度與人口規模成正比。

ideal family size is like this idealized notion. And so those surveys don't really reflect what people really want.

>>那是一個強有力的發現。

>> Well, the thing is that what people want is completely shaped by the societies that we build, right? So we decide whether we have societies that make parenting easy and friendly and

>>是的。而且，看看現代世界。世界上一些最具創新性的國家，如美國和中國，也是人口最多的國家之一。

desirable. Um and so I what I hope to show in this debate is that we should build those kinds of societies and question whether we are.

>>好的。Joss，你有60秒出示你的證據。

>> Okay, Jos, you now have two minutes for your first argument. Most people are not aware of how much fertility rates have fallen around the world. So this is a

>>好的。讓我談談人口對環境的影響。

trend that has obviously been happening for decades, but the past 10 years have shown that we don't go from like six births per woman to two and then just

科學是明確的：人類活動是氣候變化的主要驅動因素，而人口規模是這種活動的關鍵決定因素。

hold there, right? We're not holding there. And what we really need to talk about here is the statistic of total fertility rate. You hear this a lot in media and conversations about this. It's

>>你能具體說明嗎？

not the same thing as birth rates. So the total fertility rate is a statistic that imagines a hypothetical woman and how many babies she would have over the

>>當然。更多的人意味著更多的能源消耗、更多的食物生產、更多的交通運輸——所有這些都會產生溫室氣體排放。

course of her life. This is because we can't just wait and see how many kids a 20-year-old today ends up having. We don't have 20 years to find that out. So

>>但技術進步不能幫助減少這些影響嗎？

they use this statistic to try to capture fertility rates at the moment.

>>是的，可以。但研究表明，技術進步的收益往往被人口增長所抵消。這被稱為反彈效應。

The replacement rate is around 2.1 to 2.2. And right now 2/3 of humanity lives in countries that are below that level.

>>有趣。你能舉個例子嗎？

This is not just a rich country issue anymore. So, we're talking about Tunisia, Mexico, Turkey, Iran, Thailand.

>>當然。看看能源效率。我們的汽車、電器和建築物都變得更加節能了。但因為有更多的人在使用它們，總能源消耗仍然在上升。

These are all countries that have lower fertility rates than the United States right now. The Financial Times has a great series of charts showing how demographers keep overestimating what

>>那是一個好觀點。

the fertility rates will be. One example is Colombia. The UN thought that there was going to be 700,000 births in 2024.

>>第三輪：反駁。你們各有60秒反駁對方的論點。Joss先開始。

what we actually got there was 450,000 and still the UN thinks that birth rates are going to stabilize. So those projections that you were saying they're based on the expectation that birth

>>好的。Adam認為人口增長與創新相關。但讓我指出幾點。

rates will stabilize for reasons that are a little unclear. It's just as likely that countries will enter what's called a low fertility trap. So if you have a total fertility rate of one,

首先，創新不只是數量的問題。質量也很重要。一個受過良好教育的小群體可能比一個未受教育的大群體產生更多創新。

which is like Spain or China right now, that means that each generation is half the size of the one before it, which means half the potential mothers, they can't just return to replacement rate.

>>這是一個公平的觀點。

They need to actually overshoot it for a long period of time to avoid depopulation. So this is going to unfold slowly. And you know, at the scale of our individual lives, it seems slow.

>>第二，在現代世界，知識的傳播不再受到地理的限制。互聯網意味著好的想法可以從世界任何角落傳播。

Takes 20, 30 years for a generation to go by, but it's very hard to change course, especially if we can't get on the same page and recognize that this is happening.

>>那是真的。

>> Adam, you have 90 seconds for your rebuttal.

>>第三，歷史上的模式不一定適用於未來。在一個資源有限的世界裡，我們可能需要不同的創新模式——一種專注於可持續性而不是無限增長的模式。

>> Well, I'll just start by saying that I think that this declining population is a good thing, right? So, I am inherently less worried about that than maybe some

>>好的。Adam，你有60秒反駁。

people might be. Um, but I also think that it's really hard to predict uh population decline. It's hard to predict fertility rates. People have been bad in the past and I'm sure they're they're

>>好的。Joss認為更少的人對環境更好。但讓我質疑這個假設。

we'll struggle with it now. And so drawing a line from a trend we see in the last couple decades to sort of the inevitable end of the human race or a

首先，環境問題的核心是消費，而不是人口本身。一個美國人的平均碳足跡比一個印度人大約十倍。

dwindling to some unfortunate size. That doesn't make sense to me. I think that's silly to try and predict that far out.

>>這是真的，但...

And I'm glad you mentioned that it is it is it will seem slow because this is a slow process. Like I just want to put that in perspective for people. You

>>等等，讓我說完。這意味著減少碳排放最有效的方式是改變消費模式，而不是減少人口。

know, we we've already been in this period of population decline in many places. The US birth rate first fell below replacement rate in 1971. So we've been living in this world where things

>>但為什麼不能兩者兼顧呢？

are changing in this way. Um but you know, it's shifted up a little bit. It shifted down. It hasn't been an unstoppable plunge so far. We don't know

>>因為關注人口可能會分散我們對更重要問題的注意力。而且，它可能會導致有害的政策，比如強制計劃生育。

what's going to happen in the future. And it seems incredibly unlikely that the population decline will be faster than the population rise. Even the most aggressive low fertility scenarios that I've ever

>>那是一個嚴重的擔憂。

seen are saying that by the end of this century when the majority of people watching this will be dead, there still will be more people on Earth than when

>>是的。歷史上，人口控制政策往往侵犯人權，尤其是女性和少數族群的權利。

we were born. It's just a slower process than than some sort of sudden shock. Um, and I think that gives us a lot of room to adapt and change.

>>第四輪：最難回答的問題。你們各有30秒問對方一個最難回答的問題。Adam先開始。

>> I would like to add that with regard to the US fertility rate, yes, it went down in the 1970s, it came back up. That bump was because of a change in the

>>好的，Joss。如果你是一個政策制定者，你會如何減少人口而不侵犯人權？

composition of the population, not because of a change in behavior. Um, it's entirely a result of uh the higher fertility of foreignb born women of immigrants. And that bump is now gone.

>>這是一個好問題。我的回答是，我們不需要強制措施。研究表明，當女性獲得教育和經濟機會時，生育率自然會下降。

They uh their fertility rates have gone down. and the countries that they came from have fertility rates that have dropped. So that's one point. But when you say that like this happens slowly,

>>所以你的解決方案是賦權而不是強制？

that doesn't mean that you know like anything could happen to change it, right? We we know how many kids are going to enroll in college 20 years from

>>正是如此。投資女性教育和醫療保健是減少人口增長最有效和最道德的方式。

now. Like that's been decided by the people who decided whether to have kids right now or not. And population decline is subject to the the same exponential math that population growth is subject to.

>>好的。Joss，你的問題？

>> Right? We can we can see a little ways into the future, but I think every decade you travel into the future, it becomes harder to predict. And if if

>>Adam，如果人口真的開始大幅下降，你認為我們應該如何應對勞動力短缺和養老金危機？

we're worrying about something that the math predicts in 200 years, I think that's plenty of time to upend the assumptions that those equations are making and give us a different result.

>>好問題。我認為有幾個可能的解決方案。

So, I'm just thinking that in the short term, yes, but in the long term, no. We can't predict. Okay, we'll move on to round two.

首先，自動化可以填補一些勞動力缺口。機器人和AI可以做很多人類目前做的工作。

>> Before we get too far into it, let's talk about today's sponsor, which is Sockdoc. So, I was reading a really interesting study recently, and it was about what they call continuity of care,

>>但這會帶來自己的問題，比如失業。

which basically means seeing the same doctor over time. It turns out that having that relationship is associated with lower mortality rates. It's really important, but the challenge is often

>>這是真的。第二，我們可以重新思考退休。人們可以工作更長時間，或者採用更靈活的退休模式。

finding that doctor in the first place. And that's where Zachdoc comes in. They exist to remove any of the friction that is keeping us from getting the health

>>這可能對一些人有效，但不是所有人。

care that we need and that we're often already paying for when we buy insurance. Polls have shown that when you put off seeing a doctor, your health often gets worse. So,

>>第三，移民可以幫助填補勞動力缺口。許多發達國家已經這樣做了。

booking a doctor's appointment should be easier than ordering a burrito in the middle of the night. And with Zockd, it actually is. You don't have to call five different doctor's

>>好的。最後一輪：結案陳詞。你們各有60秒。Joss先開始。

offices just to be told that they aren't taking new patients or that they don't accept your insurance. You don't have to call anyone at all. You can do

>>好的。讓我總結一下我的論點。

it all online. Get in the same week, sometimes the same day. They have more than 100,000 providers from primary care to dental health, eye care, urgent care, and more. So go to zdock.com/howtown.

我們生活在一個有限的星球上。地球的資源是有限的，它能支持的人口也是有限的。

Book a top rated doctor today. If you use our link, which I'll put in the description, that makes us look good. But again, this is a totally free

>>這是一個基本的物理現實。

service. And what really matters is that you stop putting off seeing the doctor and get the care that you need.

>>是的。人口增長一直是環境破壞的主要驅動因素之一，包括氣候變化、生物多樣性喪失和資源耗竭。

>> In this round, Adam and Joss each get to present a stat. Adam, you're up first.

>>這些都是嚴重的問題。

You have 1 minute. Great. My statistic is 1.6 births per woman. I'm quoting from a paper entitled, "Is low fertility really a problem?" In this paper, they studied the economic dynamics in 40

>>減少人口，或至少穩定人口，可以減輕這些壓力，給地球一個恢復的機會。

wealthy countries and found that fertility below replacement and modest population decline favor higher material standards of living. So a shrinking population was better for standards of living than a growing one. How can that

好消息是，這已經在發生了。全球生育率正在下降，這是一個積極的趨勢，我們應該接受而不是恐懼。

be? Well, what they found is basically that when you have a slowly shrinking population, you can invest more per kid and that means each kid has more resources, better education. They end up

>>好的。Adam，你的結案陳詞。

being more productive. An example they use a lot in this paper is Japan, which is the oldest country, the country with the oldest population on Earth. They have a total fertility rate of about

>>好的。讓我提出一個不同的觀點。

1.1. But from 1995 to 2024, as its population declined, its GDP shrank by 27%. When you look at the human development index, a common measure of well-being, Japan's rating rose 6%. So

人口不是我們最大的問題——消費和不平等才是。

with a below replacement fertility rate, they actually saw an increase in well-being. Joss, your response?

>>有趣。

>> Yeah, I wouldn't say Japan is a hell hole, but I would note that Japan's public debt to GDP ratio is getting a little out of hand, and at some point

>>世界上最富有的10%的人產生了大約一半的全球碳排放。解決氣候變化的關鍵不是減少人口，而是改變我們的經濟系統和消費習慣。

that may become a problem for them. The paper that you're talking about, it's an interesting thought experiment. Um, they're looking for like what Goldilocks fertility rate maximizes consumption,

>>這是一個重要的觀點。

like balancing the size of the pie and the number of slices, but it's just not the real world. Like this analysis ignores the transition period, right?

>>而且，人口下降帶來的挑戰是真實的。勞動力短缺、養老金危機、創新減緩——這些都可能損害我們應對氣候變化的能力。

They run forward several generations till they have a steady age structure, which means that they're kind of abstracting out a lot of the pain that we're going to experience with an aging

>>那是一個有趣的悖論。

population. They also assume that an aging population doesn't affect the productivity of the labor force, which is another big assumption. And this paper was published 10 years ago. So I

>>是的。所以，與其擔心人口太多，我們應該專注於建設一個更公平、更可持續的世界——一個可以支持無論多少人的世界。

went and looked at the fertility rates of all of the 40 countries in their analysis, and 36 out of 40 of of them have fertility rates that have dropped

>>好的。辯論結束了。你們兩位都提出了很好的論點。

in the decade since this paper was published. We just don't get to choose an optimal fertility rate and hold it there.

>>謝謝。這是一個複雜的話題，沒有簡單的答案。

>> I would dispute that this is not looking at the real world. I mean it is it is modeling uh possible scenarios but based on observations of what's happening in

>>同意。讓我們回顧一下雙方的主要論點。

the real world. And when you look at Japan which is very much the real world you do see that over the past 30 years they've managed to increase standards of

>>好的。Joss主張人口對環境的影響是一個主要問題，而人口下降可以幫助減輕這種影響。

living with one of the most dramatically aged populations in the world. And they've done that by increasing the workforce participation among seniors among women. They've been very good at incorporating news technologies. They

>>是的。而Adam主張人口下降帶來的經濟和社會挑戰可能同樣嚴重，而我們應該專注於消費而不是人口。

have these very specific immigration visas that they give to help with the workforce. So, they're they're sort of a pilot program for a lot of tools that will make these transitions, which are

>>對。那麼你們現在的看法是什麼？辯論有沒有改變你們的想法？

going to be rough. I'm not denying that, but they'll make them more easy to bear and survivable.

>>對我來說，這強調了問題的複雜性。沒有一個簡單的解決方案。

>> Is there like a end point to this analysis or can the population shrink down to like very very small and it's still supposed to apply? Well, in this

>>同意。我認為真相可能在中間某處。人口和消費都很重要，我們需要同時解決這兩個問題。

paper that you could basically continue to have these dividends to well-being if you just stayed at 1.6 indefinitely.

>>是的。而且，最重要的是要尊重個人的選擇權，不強迫任何人生或不生孩子。

Um, you know, it's but that again is like getting so far in the future that >> other other factors will come to play, >> right? All right, why don't we move on?

>>絕對同意。好的，讓我們聽聽專家的看法。

Uh, Joss, you now have one minute to present your stat. My stat is that in France it took around 115 years for their population above the age of 60 to

>>是的。我們在研究這個話題時採訪了幾位專家，讓我們聽聽他們怎麼說。

double from 7% to 14%. More than a century. In Vietnam that same change will take just 15 years. So if you look at charts of population aging, you see

>>首先是人口學家Sarah Harper教授。

these really steep lines in large parts of Asia and Latin America. And the reason why that's really important is that a lot of these countries didn't have the time or the economic growth

>>她指出，人口增長已經在放緩，而且在許多國家已經開始下降。

that like Japan had to build robust public pension systems and health care systems for their populations to have a lot of private retirement savings. U Vietnam has a social security system but

>>是的。她說這是人類發展的自然結果，而不是什麼需要恐慌的事情。

the the majority of seniors do not have access to it because they worked in the informal sector. So this is what economists call getting old before

>>她還強調了適應變化的重要性，而不是試圖扭轉這些趨勢。

getting rich and it is a threat to the continued development of low and middle inome countries and at the same time right rich countries will need immigrants to address their own uh

>>有趣。我們還與環境經濟學家交談了。

population challenges and labor shortages to care for our aging populations. So already the US healthare system and um long-term care system is highly reliant on immigrants and that's

>>是的。他們強調，雖然人口是一個因素，但消費和技術是更重要的驅動因素。

only going to become more the case and those workers are exactly the same workers that are going to be needed everywhere.

>>他們說，減少碳排放最有效的方式是轉向可再生能源和改變消費模式，而不是減少人口。

>> Adam, your response? >> A lot in a lot to respond to in both of those stats. I think that um when it comes to Vietnam, its population is

>>這與Adam的論點一致。

still growing. It's not declining yet. And its working population, more importantly, is still growing and will continue to grow for for a little while.

>>是的。但他們也承認，在長期內，人口穩定對可持續發展是有益的。

And so that gives you a window of a couple decades really where you have time to prepare the economy and to implement systems that will help with

>>這與Joss的論點一致。

that transition. And in terms of the way that that immigration can kind of smooth out some of these transitions, it doesn't have to be a completely extractive exchange. There are already

>>所以，專家們似乎同意這是一個複雜的問題，需要多管齊下的方法。

sort of pilot programs in a lot of countries where there's an exchange of training and labor. One example is the NHS in the UK where they offer a residency program for doctors to come

>>是的。好的，讓我們討論一些我們在辯論中沒有深入探討的話題。

from other countries, work in the NHS for a couple years and then they can go back home and they bring that training back to their home countries. So there's

>>好的。我想談的一件事是人口老齡化。

a way to set this up so that you actually increase the global supply of skilled workers everywhere.

>>是的，這是一個重要的話題。當人口縮小時，它往往也會老齡化，因為年輕人比老年人少。

>> When you say that they have this time to set up these systems and prepare their countries like yeah they they need time but really they need economic growth for

>>這對醫療保健和社會服務帶來了挑戰。

that to happen. It's just it's it's always unfortunate when people who live in really rich countries that have benefited benefited from a huge amount of economic growth like look at these

>>是的。但也有一些積極的方面。老年人可以貢獻智慧和經驗，而且他們往往是志願服務和社區參與的主力。

countries and and and don't allow them or encourage them to have the same trajectory and experience that led to the the lifestyles and the standard of living that we have.

>>這是一個好觀點。我們不應該只把老齡化看作一個問題。

>> Yeah, it's a problem. But I think you also have to ask, will adding more babies be part of the solution? And I think that if there was a baby boom in Vietnam tomorrow,

>>對。另一個我們沒有深入討論的話題是移民。

those babies are going to be dependent for the next 15 to 20 years, right? And so you're just adding a another a bolus of of of dependence on both ends of the

>>是的。移民是許多國家應對人口下降的方式之一。

population that now you have to invest in.

>>但這也帶來了自己的挑戰，包括文化整合和政治阻力。

>> Why don't we move on to round three?

>>是的。這是一個複雜的話題，值得單獨討論。

>> Showdown. Third round. >> Joss, you have 2 minutes to make your next point. a smaller human population will be less able to solve the big and small problems that we face. That's

>>同意。好的，讓我們回到觀眾。在Patreon上，你們可以投票選出你們認為誰贏了這場辯論。

because people are the source of good ideas. Uh this is obviously the case in areas like science and technology, but it's also the case everywhere. Wherever people are doing things, they are

>>是的。如果你想加入我們的Patreon並獲得投票權和其他福利，鏈接在下方說明中。

learning from the things that they're doing. They're figuring out ways to do it better. They're sharing that knowledge with everybody else and adding to the cumulative intelligence which is our most precious natural resource.

>>好的。這就是這一集的內容。我希望你學到了一些東西。

Right? If you look back through human history, it was the land mass that had the highest population that created the most innovation, right? Like the the land mass of Europe and Africa and Asia.

>>是的。這是一個重要的話題，值得更多的討論。

Whereas more isolated populations in the Americas, in Australia, they didn't have as many people to accumulate and iterate on ideas. And so let's that's the supply side, but let's also not forget the

>>同意。好的，感謝收看，我們下次再見。

demand side. So if you take How town for instance, our channel, we decided to take the risk to launch this thing with the assumption that there were enough

>>再見！

people in the world who would want this very specific kind of video that we make to pay back the cost of, you know, starting the channel of uh the cost of

讓我們討論一些關於這個話題的常見誤解。

making every single video, which is like pretty big cost upfront. And that's the same, you know, across the economy, you know, when the chef is deciding whether to open a restaurant that sells like

>>好的。第一個誤解是人口增長是無限的。

Korean, Mexican, vegetarian food or, you know, someone's deciding whether to make a movie or write a book or or, uh, you know, invest in the technology to create

>>是的。事實上，聯合國預測全球人口將在本世紀末達到峰值，然後開始下降。

a gadget that's going to make our lives easier. Um, there's this big fixed upfront cost that needs to be justified by a substantial market. There was a study of the pharmaceutical industry in

>>第二個誤解是人口減少會自動解決環境問題。

the US which showed that a 1% increase in the market size led to four to six% more new medicines, right? And this is really relevant for things like rare

>>對。雖然更少的人意味著更少的總體影響，但這不會自動解決問題。我們仍然需要改變我們的消費和生產方式。

diseases where if there's not enough humans with the condition, the condition is not going to be addressed. So bigger markets encourage problem solving. It just really benefits all of us for there

>>第三個誤解是人口政策總是侵犯人權。

to be large pools of people who want the same things that we want. Okay, Adam, and you now have 90 seconds for your response.

>>是的。雖然有些歷史上的人口政策確實是強制性的，但現代的方法強調賦權和選擇。

>> Totally agree that population size is one of the drivers of innovation, but I can think of a bunch of other forces that can also drive innovation. One is just investment, public investment.

>>投資女性教育和醫療保健是一種不侵犯人權的方式來影響人口趨勢。

We've just seen the US slash a bunch of investment into research. Restoring that or doubling it even would definitely improve the amount of innovation that's happening, the amount of creativity that

>>對。好的，讓我們總結一下今天討論的主要觀點。

we can we can harness. Another factor you mentioned like communication being an important part and how if you're a more diffuse population it's harder to have those conversations but you know we

>>好的。首先，全球生育率正在下降，人口增長正在放緩。

can concentrate people into institutions and and with increased connectivity throughout the world that kind of communication can still happen and then another thing is we can just increase

>>是的。這是一個全球趨勢，在大多數國家都在發生。

the number of people who are part of those conversations by making sure more people have good education. If you don't ever get to go to high school, it's harder to be part of these

>>第二，這對環境和社會都有影響，既有正面的也有負面的。

conversations. So, we can raise the education standard for the whole world and actually increase the population of people who are innovating while the population is decreasing. We can do this kind of

>>對。更少的人可能意味著更少的環境壓力，但也可能意味著勞動力短缺和養老金危機。

innovation with a few billion less people. We went to the moon when the population was 3.6 billion people.

>>第三，解決這些挑戰需要多管齊下的方法，包括改變消費模式、投資技術和適應人口變化。

Fleetwood Mac recorded rumors when the population was 4.1 billion. So we don't need 10 million people for great acts of creation.

>>是的。這不是一個簡單的選擇更多人還是更少人的問題。

>> Well, the population going that direction had a larger number of young people than the population will going the other direction. So there is some some relevance to that I think and

>>對。好的，這就是今天的內容。

you're totally right that increasing investment in research, increasing education, those are all things that are going to increase innovation. But like where does that you have to really think

>>感謝收看。如果你喜歡這個視頻，請訂閱我們的頻道。

about where that money comes from? And the question is whether a bigger or smaller population is likely to provide the tax base to support that kind of investment. And when and when you have

>>我們會在下次見到你。再見！

an aging population, we're going to see a a bigger and bigger amount of our public budgets going into health care.

>>再見！

It's very expensive. older folks spend, you know, maybe several times more on health care, and we're going to have to pay for that, which is going to force some tough decisions about where our

好的，讓我們談談這場辯論中我們沒有時間涵蓋的一些要點。

governments can invest elsewhere. >> All right, moving on. Adam, you now have two minutes for your next argument.

>>好的。你有什麼想法？

>> I don't think Jos can deny that human population growth so far has put a huge strain on natural resources and the environment. You can sort of take your

>>嗯，我認為我們沒有充分討論不同國家面臨的不同挑戰。

pick of whatever metric you want. Groundwater is being depleted. 40% of fisheries are being overfished. We're losing a Denmark sized patch of forest every year. Of course, there's CO2

>>是的。一些國家，如日本和意大利，已經面臨嚴重的人口老齡化。

emissions. That is a big focus. The latest IPCC report says the GDP per capita and population growth remain the strongest drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the last decade, which they

>>而其他國家，如尼日利亞和印度，仍在經歷快速的人口增長。

put in parenthesis, robust evidence, high agreement. So, we're really sure about that. So, every person we add to the population adds to that strain. But I want to focus on one particular corner

>>這意味著沒有一刀切的解決方案。

of this this impact and that's the loss of other forms of life. It's it's not that complicated of a picture. Every extra human needs more space to live.

>>對。另一個我們沒有深入討論的話題是技術如何改變我們對這些挑戰的應對方式。

And that space includes all the area that's need to needed to grow and raise the food they eat. And so we've taken over the habitats of other species, taking their resources. This graph here

>>是的。自動化和人工智能可能會改變我們對勞動力的需求。

sort of is a snapshot of that. This shows the biomass of mammals in the world. And you can see the familiar uptick of humans, that orange space, but

>>而可再生能源和其他綠色技術可能會改變人口與環境之間的關係。

that comes along with it this huge population of domesticated animals, mostly livestock, that are taking habitat from other animals. And then you can see the wild mammals have declined.

>>這些都是值得更多討論的話題。

If you look at vertebrate populations across the board, their populations have fallen on average by 73% in the last 50 years. Hundreds of thousands of species are facing extinction and that's the

>>同意。好的，讓我們結束吧。

direct result of our actions. Part of it is pollution, part of it is climate change, but the biggest part is just the amount of land that we need. And so what

>>好的。感謝收看這次辯論。

population would allow us to successfully share the world with all these other species? That's really hard to estimate obviously because it all depends on how those people live. But

>>我們希望它幫助你更好地理解這個複雜的話題。

every realistic estimate that I've seen says it's less than the number of people we have right now. And there's they sort of tend to land around the 34 billion uh

>>如果你有任何問題或評論，請在下方留言。

level which again is sort of between the population when our parents were born and when we were born. Okay, Jos, you now have 90 seconds for your rebuttal.

>>我們會在下次見到你。保重！

>> I want to use my tag team here.

>>再見！

>> Tag team. >> It's from Dean Spears, who's an economist and uh author of a book called After the Spike. When China's particle air pollution was off the charts in

讓我分享一些我在研究這個話題時學到的有趣事實。

2013, it got international attention and was called the air apocalypse. In the decade after that, the size of the Chinese population grew by 50 million people, but particle air pollution in

>>好的，說吧。

China fell by more than half. And it's not just China. The population of the world as a whole grew by 750 million people over that decade. And particle air pollution fell, but not everywhere.

>>首先，你知道全球生育率在過去50年裡下降了一半嗎？

It didn't fall in India. And that's because leaders in India didn't make the policy decisions that China did to shut down coal plants or regulate industries.

>>真的？那是一個驚人的變化。

When I was a kid in the 80s, the big famous threat was the hole in the ozone layer. But my kids don't add to the hole in the ozone layer because the Montreal

>>是的。在1970年代，全球平均生育率是每名女性約5個孩子。現在是大約2.4個。

Protocol in 1987 banned the use of chlorofluorocarbons. Before that, it was leaded gasoline, but the Clean Air Act addressed that. The thing is we could we could list every environmental challenge

>>那真的是一個巨大的下降。

and there are many and they are serious and they are real and we must confront them. But whenever we've confronted humans destructive environmental activity before it's always been not by

>>第二，你知道人口最多的國家不一定是人口密度最高的國家嗎？

reducing the number of humans but by confronting the destructive activity that humans do. You know, this is the same reason why you don't see environmental organizations advocating for policies that would somehow

>>有趣。你能給出一個例子嗎？

drastically cut the human population as if there was any way to do that that wasn't like fully evil. And Spears also has an analysis where they looked at climate specifically and they showed

>>當然。印度和中國是人口最多的國家，但像新加坡和摩納哥這樣的小國人口密度更高。

that population decline that's going to happen is just too slow to be any part of a solution to climate change. We need to decarbonize in the next couple of

>>那確實很有趣。

decades. And when you look at the two population paths, one declining and one stabilizing, um, you just don't see a difference. What we need are technologies and policies, and you need

>>第三，你知道有些國家正在積極鼓勵生育嗎？

people to push for both of those. >> I'd say a couple things to that. One is that another big difference between China and India is that China's population did fall. Obviously, that was

>>是的，我聽說過。像俄羅斯和匈牙利這樣的國家提供生育獎勵。

because of policies that that we would think of as unethical. But right now, we don't have to resort to those policies to see a population decline. we can just embrace the trend that's already

>>對。他們擔心人口下降對經濟和國家安全的影響。

happening and let people make those choices and the population will decline.

>>但這些政策的效果似乎有限。

It it's not that it won't have any effect. I think his analysis found that it had a small effect, too small to solve all the problems. But if you look

>>是的。研究表明，經濟激勵對生育率的影響通常很小。

at the analysis of the technology, the the decarbonization efforts that we've made, they're also too small. All of these pieces on their own are too small, but together they can have an impact. So

>>好的，這些都是有趣的事實。謝謝分享。

why not try all of them at once? And that's actually I'm going to use my tag team because a bioethicist that I interviewed made that point pretty well.

>>不客氣。好的，我們真的要結束了。

I thought >> tag team. >> Let's get some of our uh ecological improvements from smart technologies and let's get some of our ecological improvements from getting rid of unnecessary superfluous consumption and

>>好的。感謝收看！

then let's get some from gradually and humanely shrinking our numbers. I think that's the way to go. put that all together. Let's give ourselves the best chance to come through the next hundred

>>訂閱我們的頻道以獲取更多類似的內容。

years without disaster. Uh and not just not without disaster, but with with a good future where everyone has enough food and and we still keep some of the

>>我們會在下次見到你。再見！

the beauty and vibrancy in the natural world, too.

>>再見！

>> He seems nice, but I would say if you if you look at things that need to be done, like there is some cost to cleaning up after ourselves, right? the stock of CO2

好的，在我們真正結束之前，讓我問你一個問題。

emissions that's already in the atmosphere. We will have technologies that can remove it. We will have to pay for them because they'll be expensive and the bigger tax base that you have,

>>好的，問吧。

the more we can share that cost among ourselves. So, it's not obvious that there's just you can just decline the population and you get a net only a net

>>如果你必須用一句話總結這場辯論的教訓，你會說什麼？

benefit for the environment there. What I would also say is that if policies matter um and they do like you mentioned uh the cost of livestock right right now lots of countries

>>嗯，我會說：人口問題比我們通常認為的更複雜，需要權衡多種因素。

actually subsidize the beef and dairy industries they're lowering the prices we're not getting the signal of their actual cost and so that's a policy question and we need people to push for

>>那是一個很好的總結。我會說：無論人口增加還是減少，關鍵是如何可持續地適應變化。

that change of policies and the fact is that environmentalists should make more environmentalists So Donald Trump, our president, he believes climate change is a hoax famously. If you look at the birth rates

>>那也是一個好觀點。好的，現在我們真的結束了。

of the counties that supported him, they are substantially higher than the birth rates of the counties that voted against him. And you see similar trends in Europe, there is some indication that

>>好的。感謝收看這次辯論。

decline in fertility among people with progressive values has contributed to the rightward turn of politics on that continent. That's just something for, you know, environmentalists to keep in

>>我們希望你學到了一些東西，並對這個話題有了新的理解。

mind that if they want to transmit their values and their priorities to the next generation, uh, they are going to need to produce the next generation.

>>如果你喜歡這種辯論格式，請在評論中告訴我們。

>> It makes me nervous to think about population engineering as a way to address some of these policy uh, problems. But to your earlier point, I actually think that there there

>>我們可能會在未來做更多類似的內容。

obviously needs to be investment to solve these problems. It's going to take a lot of work and money and resources to solve them. But there are signs that some aspects of lowering population do

>>好的。我們會在下次見到你。保重！

cost us nothing and lead to better outcomes. Not so much in the decarbonization space, but in this other problem that's that's sort of uh a different one of land use. You've seen

>>再見！

countries like Croatia that have had their population decline like 20% in the last 30 years and they've just pulled back from farmland and very naturally that farmland has become wilderness

讓我們最後談談你，觀眾，可以從這個話題中學到什麼並應用到你的日常生活中。

again and you've seen a rebounding of native populations of wolves and ibicks and their native antelopes and that happened without too much human intervention at all. It was sort of a

>>好的，這是一個好想法。

natural progression where agriculture became wilderness again. But I think you have to also recognize the solutions that that can only come out of technology and policy. And the fact is

>>首先，你可以更加意識到你自己的消費習慣及其環境影響。

that we've seen a lot of countries once they, you know, get out of poverty, they meet their the needs of their citizens, they start to care about uh paying for

>>是的。每個人都可以通過減少浪費、選擇可持續產品等方式做出貢獻。

protecting the environment, they do make progress. We've brought species back from the ex the brink of extinction. You know, we have decoupled uh emissions from population in lots of countries.

>>第二，如果你正在考慮是否要孩子，這是一個非常個人的決定，應該基於你自己的情況和願望。

Actually, a lot of countries have decoupled economic growth from carbon emissions because of this shift to clean energy, which is happening faster than people predicted.

>>對。不要讓任何關於人口的大敘事影響這個非常私人的選擇。

>> All right, let's move on to round four.

>>第三，你可以參與到關於這些話題的公共討論中，並支持基於證據的政策。

>> In this round, you each dare to ask one another a question. Joss is up first.

>>是的。作為公民，我們有責任就這些重要問題做出明智的決定。

Okay, so in 1968 uh Paul and Anne Erlic published the population bomb which predicted you know widespread famine and unrest due to overpopulation. It has gone down as one of you know history's

>>好的，這些都是很好的建議。

most famous bad takes because their predictions were false. They couldn't foresee how innovation would allow us to feed more people with less resources. So my question is uh what do

>>好的。這就是今天的全部內容。

environmentalists and what should we learn from the mistakes that they made and how do we avoid making the same mistakes as we consider population issues going forward?

>>感謝收看。別忘了訂閱和點讚。

>> Well, I think the lesson from the Erlics is that it's really hard to predict the future. It's hard to predict what advances technology will do and you can predict things incorrectly in both

>>我們會在下次見到你。再見！

directions. You might not anticipate some technology that is making going to make population growth okay, but you also might not anticipate some technology like for example AI that might make labor shortages okay. New

>>再見！

technology could also improve our economies by increasing productivity in the future and making some of these concerns about an aging population and a lowering workforce kind of moot. The

好的，最後一件事。我想感謝我們所有的Patreon支持者。

lesson is not to try and change people's choices to meet some imagined future that you've constructed with your models, but rather to see what people's choices are in this moment and try to

>>是的。沒有你們的支持，我們無法製作這樣的內容。

build a world that works with those choices. Right now, people are choosing to have fewer children, and so we should try to build a world that works with

>>如果你想加入我們的Patreon社區，鏈接在說明中。

that. All right, Adam, you drop your question. So you're saying we need to reverse population decline, but my question is how can we do that? Can you

>>你會獲得額外的內容、投票權，以及對這個頻道方向的發言權。

name a single policy out there in the world that has raised fertility rates where the population is declining back up to replacement levels? No, we have not seen that any government has figured

>>好的。再次感謝你們的收看和支持。

out how to return uh the society's above replacement rate. But I think that doesn't mean that we can't do anything about it. Actually, if you look at some

>>我們會在下次見到你。保重！

of the research that's been done that really considers the counterfactual quite closely, you do see sort of marginal improvements when you make child care more affordable and you expand parental leave. So, it's really

>>再見！

hard for me to believe that uh governments are all that pro-atal if the costs of child care and housing have grown faster than wages. That's kind of the biggest thing um that probably

好的，我有一個最後的想法想分享。

affects people's decisions about whether they are going to have families and how big their families will be. And um I just don't think that there's any evidence that we've done much at all on

>>好的，說吧。

those fronts. >> Well, this segus really well into my pet peeve.

>>無論我們對人口問題的看法如何，我認為最重要的是尊重每個人的選擇和尊嚴。

>> In this round, you'll each call out a common talking point that gets on your nerves. Adam, go ahead. I think that that a lot of people, especially politicians, think that there's going to

>>同意。這不應該是一個關於強迫任何人做任何事的討論。

be some magic wand they can wave policywise that magically makes their populations grow again. And when you look out, like you said, we haven't seen that working yet. Maybe there's things

>>對。這應該是關於創造一個世界，讓每個人都能繁榮，無論世界人口是增加還是減少。

we can do, but they're most likely to cause marginal gains. You look at countries that are what I would call pretty pro-atalist in the way that you're describing social democracies in

>>那是一個美好的願景。

Scandinavia where they have a lot of support for parents and you know they they're working on cost of living all these things and the population is still declining. There's still a low fertility

>>是的。好的，這就是今天的全部內容。

rate. So, I just don't think that there's that many levers that we can push that don't become coercive or or creepy um to raise the population. And

>>感謝收看。我們會在下次見到你。

to me, that means that we should be focusing on a whole suite of solutions that include adapting to a lowering population versus just trying to force the population back up. And right now, I

>>再見！

see a mismatch in where the energy and thought is being focused.

>>再見！

>> So, the pet peeve is is that people are proposing family-friendly policies. The pet peeve is that a lot of politicians are really focused on increasing fertility rate in a way that

讓我回顧一下我們今天討論的主要論點。

is impossible that we've seen is impossible. Some of those policies I think should be implemented anyway. Um some of them are are are less less good

>>好的。Joss主張人口減少對環境有益，因為更少的人意味著更少的資源消耗和污染。

I think for the fabric of society. But I think that by focusing on them and believing that somehow they'll have this effect. they're not having a a cleareyed

>>對。而Adam主張人口減少帶來的經濟和社會挑戰可能同樣嚴重，而且問題的核心是消費，不是人口。

view of the future and making the other changes they need to make in their societies.

>>是的。兩種觀點都有道理。

>> Yeah, that seems fair to me. I mean, I think uh perhaps the area is worth more research and study to try to figure out what might be possible. Uh I'm not

>>對。這就是為什麼這是一個如此有爭議的話題。

convinced we've tried everything, but yeah, some of this may be out of the reach of policy and may be more in the hands of cultural factors. And there's an economist who's doing some really

>>好的。我希望這場辯論幫助你更好地理解這些複雜的問題。

interesting work on this. Her name is Claudia Golden. Um, and she's looked at a subset of wealthy countries, all of which are below replacement rate. And she charts them by their fertility rate

>>是的。感謝收看。我們會在下次見到你。

on one axis and then how imbalanced um the household labor is. So on one side you have countries like Korea, Japan and then southern Europe like Italy, Greece,

>>再見！

Spain where the men do way less housework and child care than the women and their fertility rates are lower than countries like Sweden, Norway, Canada, France where the gender relations are

好的，錄製結束。你怎麼看？

more egalitarian and you see that their um fertility rates are higher. Again, they're still below replacement, but it's worth interrogating these small differences. You know, why what is the difference between France's society and

>>我認為那很好。我們涵蓋了很多內容。

Korea's society? We have a lot to look at culturally just because, you know, giving people cash might not convince them to have a kid. You know, there may

>>是的。這是一個複雜的話題，但我認為我們做得很好地呈現了雙方。

be other barriers that are cultural that can explain why those pronatal policies aren't necessarily working.

>>同意。好的，讓我們結束錄製。

>> Jos, your pet peeve. Okay, so my pet peeve is that it's really common to hear these days that now is a uniquely bad time to bring children in the world. I

>>好的。謝謝所有收看的人。

think this is pretty wrong. Um, I certainly empathize with anyone who is dissatisfied with the state of the world, who feels a lot of uncertainty about the future. These are confusing

>>是的。別忘了訂閱！

times. The challenges are big and real, but the thing is that they always have been. So you know you go back a couple hundred years and 30 to 50% of babies

>>我們會在下次見到你。

did not survive the first five years of their lives right um they didn't have any uh defenses against infectious disease they didn't um they they fought

>>再見！

in world wars you know just uh in the recent past chunks of the US population did not have access to equal rights are we to believe that all of our ancestors

好的，這是我們今天的最後評論。

were foolish for bringing us into the world. Like I'm personally very happy to have been born when I was. And I think the issue here is a lot of media

>>好的。說吧。

incentives and social algorithms that encourage widespread negativity, nihilism, and that kind of can have distorting effects. So there was a poll that showed that half of Democrats in

>>我只是想說，無論你在這場辯論中站在哪一邊，重要的是繼續學習和思考這些問題。

the US believe that climate change is going to render the earth uninhabitable.

>>同意。這些是影響我們所有人的全球性挑戰。

It's very hard to find um an actual climate scientist who agrees with that.

>>是的。通過了解事實和考慮不同的觀點，我們可以做出更好的決定。

So I I this really bothers me. There have always been horrors and injustice and I think the question is whether there are going to be people to fight those problems and fix them.

>>作為個人和作為社會。

>> Totally. I I totally agree with this actually and I think that there you see these incentives at play on both sides where you can sell more books if you

>>對。好的，這就是今天的全部內容。

portray something as a catastrophe but there are really hard problems ahead and I think that they'll be made marginally easier in an important way with fewer people. All right, let's move on.

>>感謝收看。保重！

>> In this round, you'll each have to concede a point. Joss, you're up first.

>>再見！

Okay. So I will concede that we are not good at predicting the future. It will be many decades before we notice substantial declines in our population

等一下，我還有一件事想說。

and in that time you know a lot could happen. You mentioned AI. The thing that people always fail to anticipate is technological change. So we're gonna

>>好的，說吧。

have to keep an eye on that. It could go either way. you know, if if AI plays out in the utopic vision and we all um don't

>>如果你是這個話題的新手，想要了解更多，我建議你閱讀一些我們在研究中使用的資源。

need to work anymore and we get a big check from like a limitless source of wealth, um great. If AI wipes out jobs and doesn't return anything to the

>>是的。我們會在說明中放一些推薦閱讀的鏈接。

people in return, um that's just going to push birth rates lower. I can tell you that. The other thing I'm keeping an eye on is in vitro gamattogenesis.

>>包括學術論文、書籍和文章。

So they are figuring out how to make eggs from skin cells which would remove the age constraint on female fertility.

>>這些是了解更多關於人口、環境和經濟之間關係的好方法。

And so um it's this is being done in rodents but it's totally possible to imagine a future where you know women have all the time in the world to

>>好的。現在我們真的結束了。

establish their lives to shop around for the right partner um and then start having babies in their 40s and 50s instead of their 20s and 30s. So all of

>>好的。感謝收看！

which is to say it's hard to know exactly what the right level of alarm is about falling birth rates. Um and that is the point that I would concede.

>>我們會在下次見到你。再見！

>> All right. And Adam, your point to concede. I would concede that there is reason for some alarm about um some of these programs like social security in

>>再見！

the US. an aging population is going to result in some strains on these programs and the the promise that these programs are making to to people who are going to

好的，錄製真的結束了。你覺得怎麼樣？

retire in 20 years, they're not going to be able to keep those. That's just a mathematical impossibility at this point. There are things that we can do to redesign those programs. There are

>>我覺得很好。我們做了一個紮實的辯論。

tweaks that a lot of economists talk about that could basically erase most if not all of the shortfalls that these programs are facing, but those changes are pretty politically unpopular. And we

>>是的。我學到了很多關於這個話題的東西。

don't really have a politician yet who's come along and said, "I'm brave enough to really take this on and make those changes." >> Okay, onto the final round. Joss will be

>>我也是。這就是做這些辯論的價值。

up first. You'll have 90 seconds to make your final point.

>>對。它迫使你真正深入研究一個話題。

>> The truth is, Adam, you already won this issue. Our most likely future is one of smaller aging populations. And the question is, should we do anything to

>>好的。讓我們休息一下，然後開始後期製作。

slow or stop that? You make the case that more people are more problems. And while that's true in a lot of ways, it's less than half the story. I think more

>>聽起來不錯。好的，這就是今天的全部內容。

people are also more solutions. And actually there are more solutions because more people create more problems. So it's more people, more problems, more people to notice and study those problems, more people to

>>感謝收看。我們會在下次見到你！

look for solutions, more people to pay for solutions, more progress, and then sometimes more progress means more problems, and we start the cycle all over again. That's the human project.

>>再見！

It's an unfinished one. It's messy, but we clean up our messes. And the story of the last 200 years when we've had this huge population boom is one of humans

>>再見！

conquering diseases, of feeding more people, finding better sources of energy, and then finding even better sources of energy. We're here because of people who fought for rights for the education of women, for scientific

好的，最後的最後。記得訂閱和點擊小鈴鐺。

advances that keep babies alive. Are we really just going to drop the baton now in a whimper of negativity and seed the future to authoritarians and digital

>>是的。這樣你就不會錯過我們的下一個視頻。

people? No. I do not think that it is anyone's responsibility to reproduce.

>>好的。我們會在下次見到你。保重！

But I do think it is our responsibility to really interrogate all of the ways that we have made parenting seem like a bad deal. You know, the costs are public

>>再見！

spaces friendly to families are workplaces friendly to families. Are we teaching people to be good partners? In what ways are we judging people's parenting all the time? You know, what

好的，現在我們真的完全結束了。

it all really boils down to is are we making sure that mothers can have the lives and relationships that their daughters would want for themselves? I think that's the whole ball game.

>>是的。感謝每一個看到這裡的人。

>> All right. And this way, Adam, you got the last word, so your final argument. I don't think that the human project is inextricably linked to a need to just

>>你們是最棒的觀眾。

keep growing, to get bigger and bigger all the time. I don't think that Joss has shown that we need more than 9 billion people or that a gently declining population is a catastrophe.

>>好的。我們會在下次見到你。

The restoration to historic population levels started decades ago and it's going to continue for generations. It's not some sudden shock. Even if the global fertility rate fell to 1.5 over

>>再見！

the next decade, which is way faster than the most extreme low fertility predictions, we would still not reach the population of our birth around 5 billion people for a century. And with

>>再見！

that amount of time, we can adjust policies and programs and adapt to changing economic conditions. We can improve health. We can share labor and knowledge between countries. We can

好的，讓我做一個最終的總結。

deploy technology in ways that make up for labor shortages and all that is a good idea anyway. Right now, people around the world are deciding to have fewer children and we can't change that.

>>好的。

In some cases, those choices are motivated by a very rational concern about the problems that our species cause. Um, and that's what really what this is all about. Our collective

>>今天我們討論了一個重要的問題：世界需要更多人還是更少人？

decision is bringing the population size down to a level that will do less damage to the environmental systems that we rely on. This isn't a crisis.

>>是的。這是一個複雜的問題，沒有簡單的答案。

It's an opportunity to create a world where every child that's born can thrive.

>>對。但通過考慮不同的觀點和證據，我們可以更好地理解這個問題。

Who was right? Who was wrong? Who won the fight? Was it Adam or Jos?

>>同意。好的，這就是今天的全部內容。

Go and vote on our Patreon where we'll discuss what we really thought about this. I'm going to count down and I want you to say who you think won the debate. 3 2 1

>>感謝收看。我們會在下次見到你！

Showdown. We're glad you stuck around so you could get the low down.

>>保重！

Town showdown. Town showdown.

>>再見！