is this amount of alcohol dangerous it's a serious question in 2023 the World Health Organization issued this guidance that said no level of alcohol consumption is safe for our health

這麼多酒精危險嗎？這是一個嚴肅的問題。2023年世界衛生組織發布了這個指導方針，說沒有任何程度的酒精攝入對我們的健康是安全的。

that's a pretty strong statement pretty strong statement then just last week the US Surgeon General called for warning labels on drinks meanwhile Australia has revised their drinking guidelines down a

這是一個相當強烈的聲明。相當強烈的聲明。然後就在上週，美國衛生總監呼籲在飲料上加上警告標籤。同時澳大利亞也修訂了他們的飲酒指南，一個

sobering warning just in time for the silly adults should have a maximum of 10 standard drinks a week and Canada went even further new recommended guidelines for Canadians advis no more than two

發人深省的警告正好趕上這個愚蠢的季節。成年人每週最多應該喝10個標準杯，而加拿大走得更遠。加拿大人的新建議指南建議每週不超過兩

drinks a week two drinks a week well that's just not uh feasible not in this country seems like uh there's different study out every couple years for a long

杯。每週兩杯？這在這個國家是不可行的。似乎每隔幾年就有不同的研究出來。很長

time there was this guidance out there that a little bit of alcohol could actually be helpful for your health yeah I remember seeing that especially about

一段時間以來，有這個指導說一點點酒精實際上可能對你的健康有幫助。是的，我記得看過，特別是關於

red wine a glass of red wine is just as good as spending an hour at the gym da beer or a wine with friends can actually

紅酒。一杯紅酒和在健身房鍛煉一小時一樣好。和朋友喝杯啤酒或葡萄酒實際上

be good so what's going on why is there all this contradictory information is moderate drinking good or bad here at howtown we investigate where information comes from and this week we're going to

可能是好的。那麼發生了什麼？為什麼有這些矛盾的資訊？適度飲酒是好還是壞？在howtown，我們調查資訊的來源，這週我們要

dive into Decades of alcohol research to try and figure out just how dangerous this is in 1991 60 Minutes ran a segment that basically asked why don't French people

深入研究幾十年的酒精研究，試圖弄清楚這到底有多危險。1991年，60 Minutes播出了一個節目，基本上問為什麼法國人

have more heart attacks if they eat so much cheese the answer to the riddle the explanation of the Paradox May lie in this inviting glass and they're saying

吃這麼多起司卻不會有更多的心臟病發作。這個謎題的答案，這個悖論的解釋可能就在這誘人的杯子裡，他們說的是

that if you're going to eat cheese you should be eating cheese with wine that's right wine and cheese is the perfect pairing the evidence for this protective

如果你要吃起司，你應該配著葡萄酒吃。沒錯，葡萄酒和起司是完美的搭配。這個飲酒保護力量的證據

power of drinking came from a bunch of different studies here's one from 1981 where they looked at 8,000 people from the San Francisco Bay area and divided them into groups based on the amount

來自一堆不同的研究。這裡是1981年的一項研究，他們觀察了舊金山灣區的8000人，根據他們報告的飲酒量分成幾組。

they reported drinking each group had the same number of women and men black people and white people people living in San Francisco versus Oakland they had the same age

每組有相同數量的女性和男性、黑人和白人、住在舊金山和奧克蘭的人。他們有相同的年齡

distribution the goal was to make the groups as similar as possible so any difference in health could be associated with their drinking habits and then they watched and waited to see who got

分布。目標是使這些組盡可能相似，這樣任何健康差異都可以與他們的飲酒習慣相關聯。然後他們觀察並等待看誰會

sick and who died after 10 years the 6 Plus group saw the most deaths followed by the 3 to 5 group that's not at all surprising there's no disagreement that

生病、誰會死亡。10年後，6杯以上的組死亡人數最多，其次是3到5杯的組。這一點都不令人驚訝。沒有人不同意

binge drinking and heavy drinking are really bad for you but the people who drink one to two drinks per day actually saw less death than the people who

酗酒和重度飲酒對你真的很不好。但每天喝一到兩杯的人實際上比完全不喝酒的人

didn't drink at all diving deeper into the data deaths from accidents liver disease and cancer were highest for heavy Drinkers and lowest not for non-drinkers but for moderate Drinkers

死亡率更低。深入研究資料，事故、肝病和癌症的死亡率在重度飲酒者中最高，最低的不是不喝酒的人，而是適度飲酒者。

and when it came to heart problems non-drinkers actually had the worst outcomes there's this sweet spot where you're not having all the cancer and and disease of a heavy drinker but you're

而且當涉及到心臟問題時，不喝酒的人實際上結果最差。有這個甜蜜點，你不會有重度飲酒者的所有癌症和疾病，但你

getting the protection for of your heart from being a moderate Drinker that was just one study but the pattern was seen over and over over and over combining

從適度飲酒中獲得對心臟的保護。這只是一項研究，但這種模式被一次又一次地觀察到。結合

the results from 34 of these studies and what's called a metaanalysis you get this graph with this so-called J curve this is the number of drinks per day at

34項這類研究的結果，在所謂的統合分析中，你會得到這個有所謂J曲線的圖表。這是底部每天的飲酒量

the bottom plotted against the relative risk of death so that would suggest that your best case for your health or your risk of not dying is is is not to

對應死亡的相對風險。這表明你健康的最佳情況或不死亡的風險不是

abstain completely but to drink a very little bit exactly a little is better than none is sort of the the takeaway wine consumption in the US had been

完全戒酒，而是喝一點點。沒錯，喝一點比不喝好，這是大致的結論。美國的葡萄酒消費在

falling in the'80s but then right around the time of all this coverage the Trend reversed there has been for years the belief by doctors that alcohol reduces

80年代一直在下降，但就在所有這些報導的時候，趨勢逆轉了。多年來醫生一直相信酒精可以降低

the risk of heart disease now it's been all but confirmed it was just assumed to be so it was a reality it was a fact nobody questioned it and if you did question it

心臟病的風險。現在這幾乎已經被證實了。這被認為是理所當然的。這是事實。沒有人質疑它，如果你質疑它，

you pillared in the early 2000s Tanya secretes was one of the scientists pointing out some issues with the J curve most of these observational studies misclassify people in terms of their

你會被批評。在2000年代初，Tanya Secretes是指出J曲線一些問題的科學家之一。大多數這些觀察性研究在

exposure to alcohol how do they Define a non-drinker that Bay Area study just asked people in the past year did you drink any alcohol some studies just ask

酒精暴露方面對人們進行了錯誤分類。他們如何定義不喝酒的人？那項灣區研究只是問人們在過去一年中是否喝過任何酒精。有些研究只問

about the past week or the past 3 days and most people who go into those studies claiming that they are a non-drinker actually were drinkers back in their 20s and 30s nobody would

過去一週或過去三天。而且大多數在這些研究中聲稱自己是不喝酒的人實際上在20多歲和30多歲時是喝酒的。沒有人會

publish a tobacco study where they called somebody who had a history of one pack a day for 25 30 years and they' given up in 5 years they would never call that person

發表一項煙草研究，把一個每天一包抽了25、30年然後戒了5年的人叫做

non-smoker but we do it with alcohol resid all the time and the reason why that's a problem is because ex drinkers tend to be unhealthier there is a big

非吸菸者。但我們對酒精的研究一直這樣做。這是一個問題的原因是因為前飲酒者往往更不健康。有很大一

group of people who used to drink a lot then their health started deteriorating so they stopped and even among the people who are actual lifetime abstainers many of them may have avoided drinking because

群人曾經喝很多，然後他們的健康開始惡化所以他們停止了。即使在真正終生不喝酒的人中，很多人可能是因為

of health conditions they already had lumping all these people into the non-drinkers column has the potential to push up the death rate of that whole group and that's just the first issue

他們已經有的健康狀況而避免飲酒。把所有這些人歸入不喝酒的一欄可能會推高整個組的死亡率。這只是第一個問題。

did you see this this Tik Tok from Hank Green that was about Hank's Razer M if I die anytime soon I want you to I want

你看過這個來自Hank Green的TikTok嗎？是關於Hank的剃刀。如果我很快死了，我想讓你

one just one favor I want you to call it Green's razor no Hank's Razer for anything that can be explained by socioeconomic status it's probably that rather than the thing that you're

幫我一個忙。我希望你把它叫做Green's剃刀。不，是Hank的剃刀。對於任何可以用社會經濟地位解釋的事情，可能就是那個原因，而不是你正在

measuring I'm not going to die anytime soon I don't think but if I do I'm hoping that he lives for a long time but I also want to invoke Hank Razer uh in

測量的東西。我不打算很快就死。我不這麼認為。但如果我死了——我希望他能長命百歲——但我也想在這一集中引用Hank的剃刀，

this episode and apply it to these studies the first question is could your level of drinking be connected somehow to your wealth and it turns out that it

並把它應用到這些研究上。第一個問題是：你的飲酒水平能否與你的財富有某種關聯？事實證明

can be lower income was associated with higher odds of abstinence and of heavy drinking relative to light/ moderate drinking which means that in this moderate drinking group there's probably

確實可以。較低的收入與更高的戒酒和重度飲酒機率相關，相對於輕度/適度飲酒。這意味著在這個適度飲酒組中可能

a disproportionate amount of rich people and there's lots of ways being rich can help your health more time for exercise access to better doctors better medicine better food less exposure to pollution

有不成比例的富人。而富有可以通過很多方式幫助你的健康——更多時間鍛煉、獲得更好的醫生、更好的藥物、更好的食物、更少暴露於污染，

Etc that Bay Area study noticed that moderate drinkers had higher educational attainment and may therefore tend to have a healthier lifestyle and all that could pull down the death rate of the

等等。那項灣區研究注意到適度飲酒者有更高的教育程度，因此可能傾向於有更健康的生活方式。所有這些都可以降低

moderate drinking group in other words these studies might not be picking up the benefits of moderate drinking but the benefits of being rich so is this jcurve just a mirage scientists have

適度飲酒組的死亡率。換句話說，這些研究可能不是在捕捉適度飲酒的好處，而是富有的好處。那麼這個J曲線只是海市蜃樓嗎？科學家們

tried to figure that out in a bunch of different ways and we'll get to that in a minute but first I want to talk about a service that helps you navigate a

試圖用很多不同的方式來弄清楚這個問題，我們馬上會講到，但首先我想談談一個幫助你導航

different kind of complexity today's sponsor ground news ground news is this website an app that gathers news headlines from 50,000 sources around the world and categorizes them based on

不同類型複雜性的服務。今天的贊助商Ground News。Ground News是這個網站和app，它從全球50000個來源收集新聞標題，並根據

their political bias how factual the publication tends to be and who owns them so this could be a way to browse headlines um and also get this additional metadata about where it's

它們的政治傾向、出版物的事實性傾向，以及誰擁有它們來分類。所以這可能是一種瀏覽標題的方式，同時也獲得關於它來自哪裡的額外元數據。

coming from one of my favorite features is this blind spot feature where you can see what stories are being covered way more by one side or the other this leak

我最喜歡的功能之一是這個盲點功能，你可以看到哪些故事被一方或另一方報導得更多。這個司法部的洩漏

from the Department of Justice was much more heavily covered on the right the rise of the super wealthy on the left it seems like right now we're in our own

在右翼被報導得更多，超級富豪的崛起在左翼被報導得更多。現在似乎我們處於自己的

silos of news and so it's easy to sort of lose track of what other people are experiencing and how how that's informing their worldview so I think that's really a valuable thing if you

新聞孤島中，所以很容易忽略其他人在經歷什麼以及這如何影響他們的世界觀。所以我認為這真的很有價值。如果你

want to sign up for this service and get the Vantage plan that that I use you can go to ground. news/ town and get 40% off now back to booze and interrogating

想註冊這項服務並獲得我使用的Vantage計畫，你可以去ground.news/town獲得40%的折扣。現在回到酒精和質疑

that famous J curve in 2023 a research team took raw data from 107 papers that looked at drinking habits and mortality risk and they saw that familiar pattern

那個著名的J曲線。2023年，一個研究團隊從107篇關於飲酒習慣和死亡風險的論文中獲取了原始資料，他們看到了那個熟悉的模式。

but when they adjusted that data to try and account for lifestyle differences between groups and the way abstainers were defined that benefit of moderate drinking shrank it was no longer

但當他們調整資料，試圖考慮組間生活方式差異和戒酒者定義方式時，適度飲酒的好處縮小了。它不再是

statistically significant it's hard to say if these studies were picking up on some slight cardiovascular benefit or if confounding factors were still playing a role or maybe both you can never

統計上顯著的。很難說這些研究是否捕捉到了一些輕微的心血管益處，還是混淆因素仍在起作用，或者兩者都有。你永遠

completely get rid of confounding in an observational study it's just not possible here's another giant metaanalysis where they again tried to minimize the influence of confounding factors and it's pretty amazing they got

無法完全消除觀察性研究中的混淆因素。這是不可能的。這是另一個巨大的統合分析，他們再次試圖最小化混淆因素的影響。令人驚訝的是，他們獲得了

data from 195 countries and a total study population of 28 million people when they looked at heart disease they still saw a bit of a J curve but the

來自195個國家、總研究人口為2800萬人的資料。當他們看心臟病時，他們仍然看到一點J曲線，但

slight benefit to the heart from a daily drink was more than canceled out by an increased risk of cancer put it all together and the risk from disease looks

每天一杯對心臟的輕微好處被癌症風險增加所抵消。把所有東西加在一起，疾病風險看起來

like this you don't see any net benefit from moderate drinking and if you weigh that up why on Earth would you recommend somebody to drink for heart health makes

像這樣。你看不到適度飲酒的任何淨好處。如果你權衡這一點，為什麼你要建議某人為了心臟健康而喝酒？

no sense at all most of the science we've talked about so far comes from observational studies that look for associations between drinking habits and health outcomes if you want to prove

這根本沒有意義。我們到目前為止談論的大部分科學來自觀察性研究，尋找飲酒習慣和健康結果之間的關聯。如果你想證明

causation the ideal setup is a randomized control control trial in a randomized controlled trial the amount subjects drink isn't influenced by their background or wealth it's assigned by

因果關係，理想的設置是隨機對照試驗。在隨機對照試驗中，受試者喝的量不是受他們的背景或財富影響，而是由

the researcher chosen by the flip of a coin and so you'd be comparing two truly random groups can you randomly select people to drink five drinks a day for a

研究人員分配，由擲硬幣決定。所以你會比較兩個真正隨機的組。你能隨機選擇人每天喝五杯酒

long period of time right so you're hitting on some of the the challenges of creating a randomized control trial for alcohol there's ethical concerns you'd be making people drink something that

持續很長一段時間嗎？對，所以你正在觸及創建酒精隨機對照試驗的一些挑戰。有倫理顧慮——你會讓人們喝可能

might harm them then there are practical concerns to catch the long-term effects of alcohol you'd really want to start the trial very early in someone's life and follow them for decades despite all

傷害他們的東西。然後有實際顧慮——要捕捉酒精的長期影響，你真的需要在某人生命早期開始試驗並跟蹤他們幾十年。儘管有這些

these challenges in 2015 this big group of researchers set out to do the first big randomized controll trial it would last 6 years with one group not drinking

挑戰，2015年這個大型研究團隊著手進行第一個大型隨機對照試驗。它將持續6年，一組完全不喝酒，

at all and the other drinking about one drink a day the plan was to end up with a sample size of about 8,000 people 8,000 people for 6 years like that's a

另一組每天喝大約一杯。計畫是最終有大約8000人的樣本量。8000人6年——這是一個

huge effort especially for a randomized control trial you know observational studies regularly have thousands of people in them because they're looking at a whole population but to actually do

巨大的努力，特別是對於隨機對照試驗。你知道，觀察性研究經常有數千人參與，因為他們在觀察整個人群，但要真正做

an experiment where you're giving one half alcohol this is this is huge they were all set to go and then the New York Times sort of blew the lid off the whole

一個你給一半人喝酒精的實驗——這是巨大的。他們都準備好了，然後紐約時報揭露了整件事。

thing the study was partly funded by the alcohol industry which is not uncommon in this field but what raised eyebrows is that two of the lead researchers met with industry reps beforehand and

這項研究部分由酒精行業資助，這在這個領域並不罕見。但引起關注的是，兩位主要研究人員事先與行業代表會面，並且

strongly suggested that the study's results would endorse moderate drinking as healthy the study was cancelled oh so our chance for a randomized control trial uh was dashed bomber but we're not

強烈暗示研究結果將認可適度飲酒是健康的。研究被取消了。哦，所以我們進行隨機對照試驗的機會破滅了。真可惜。但我們還有

out of tools yet if researchers can't randomly assign drinking habits maybe genetics can do it that's the premise behind a relatively new research method called mandalian randomization this is

其他工具。如果研究人員不能隨機分配飲酒習慣，也許基因可以做到。這是一種相對較新的研究方法——孟德爾隨機化——的前提。這是

the guy with the peas right that's the guy with the peas Czech frier Gregor mle worked out the basics of genetics by obsessively studying pea plants he found that genes are randomly distributed

那個研究豌豆的傢伙，對吧？那就是研究豌豆的傢伙。捷克修士Gregor Mendel通過痴迷地研究豌豆植物弄清楚了遺傳學的基礎。他發現基因在後代中是隨機分布的。

among Offspring and the first step of a mandalian Rand iation study is looking for a few genes that are associated with the behavior you're interested in we can

孟德爾隨機化研究的第一步是尋找幾個與你感興趣的行為相關的基因。我們可以

find genes that at a population level are going to predispose you to you know drink more one of the genes that they use is the flushing Gene that you have

找到在人群水平上會使你傾向於喝更多的基因。他們使用的基因之一是你之前報導過的臉紅基因，

covered before the one that I have it um codes for an enzyme that metabolizes alcohol and your version of this Gene means less of this enzyme for that

就是我有的那個。它編碼一種代謝酒精的酶，你的這個基因版本意味著這種酶更少。因此

reason this toxic substance builds up in our bodies and makes us turn fuchsia in my case like so red it's very uncomfortable I get a terrible headache

這種有毒物質在我們體內積累，讓我們變成紫紅色——在我的情況下非常紅——這非常不舒服，我會頭痛得厲害。

and so that's why I never picked up drinking but my sister doesn't have it so like you know there you go it's per perfect example of like flipping a coin

所以這就是為什麼我從來沒有養成喝酒的習慣。但我姐姐沒有這個基因，所以你知道，這就是這樣。這是擲硬幣的完美例子——

these two daughters of the same family one has it one doesn't now globally the drink less version of a gene might be more common in some populations but within a specific subpopulation your

同一個家庭的兩個女兒，一個有這個基因，一個沒有。現在在全球範圍內，「喝得少」版本的基因可能在某些人群中更常見，但在特定亞群體中，你

chance of carrying that variant should be random not influenced by your social class and certainly not your lifestyle that doesn't mean that people with this drink more variant are destined to be

攜帶該變體的機會應該是隨機的——不受你的社會階層影響，當然也不受你的生活方式影響。這並不意味著有這個「喝得更多」變體的人注定會成為

become heavy drinkers or even drinkers at all it just means that averaged across the entire population people with this version of the gene will tend to

重度飲酒者或根本喝酒。這只是意味著在整個人群中平均而言，有這個版本基因的人會傾向於

drink more we can think of these as sort of random tickets telling people you're more likely to drink say an extra glass a day that's why we sort of described mandelian randomization as Nature's

喝更多。我們可以把這些想成是告訴人們「你更有可能每天多喝一杯」的隨機票。這就是為什麼我們把孟德爾隨機化描述為自然的

clinical trial in 2022 Kieran B ander's colleagues published a mandalian randomization study of 370,000 people in the UK with European ancestry and looking at that entire group they found

臨床試驗。2022年，Kieran Bander的同事發表了一項針對英國37萬歐洲血統人士的孟德爾隨機化研究。看整個群體，他們發現

on average if you were to drink more that's bad across a bunch of measures of heart health people with the drink more Gene variants were worse off and with a

平均而言，如果你喝更多，這對一堆心臟健康指標都是不好的。有「喝得更多」基因變體的人情況更差。通過

bunch more statistical analysis they could see how outcomes changed at different levels of drinking more alcohol seems to cause increased risk of cardiovascular disease no matter where you are on the Alcohol Spectrum there's

更多的統計分析，他們可以看到在不同的飲酒水平上結果如何變化。更多的酒精似乎會增加心血管疾病的風險，無論你在酒精光譜的哪個位置。有

a significant amount of doubt that's been cast around this protective effect so at the very least we can question this prior consensus that drinking a little bit is better than drinking

相當多的懷疑被投射到這個保護效應上。所以至少我們可以質疑之前的共識——喝一點比不喝好。

nothing you're recently of drinking age is that right like you're in the midst of This research but you're also in college how how do you think about this as someone who's recently come with

你最近剛到喝酒年齡，對吧？你正在進行這項研究，但你也在上大學。作為一個剛到

drinking age I think over the course of a lifetime cutting back on your alcohol intake is healthy but having a drink every now and then also isn't going to

喝酒年齡的人，你怎麼看待這個問題？我認為在一生中，減少你的酒精攝入是健康的，但偶爾喝一杯也不會

kill you there's harms to to a lot of stuff that we do there's tons of things that if you didn't do them you'd be safer like go outside yeah go outside

要你的命。我們做的很多事情都有害處。有很多事情，如果你不做它們，你會更安全——比如出門。是的，出門，

leave your house drive for a lot of people people die and car crashes it doesn't mean that we're going to not drive our cars so what's the best way to

離開你的房子，開車。很多人死於車禍。這並不意味著我們要停止開車。那麼最好的方式

put the risk of drinking in perspective let's go back to that giant Global meta study that looked at a bunch of different diseases that can be caused by alcohol in high-income countries the

來看待飲酒的風險是什麼？讓我們回到那個巨大的全球統合研究，它研究了一堆可能由酒精引起的不同疾病。在高收入國家，

most common one is cancer in low-income countries it's tuberculosis because alcohol hurts your immune system and there are 21 other diseases on the list of course you can get those diseas even

最常見的是癌症，在低收入國家是肺結核，因為酒精會傷害你的免疫系統。名單上還有21種其他疾病。當然，即使你不喝酒，你也可能得這些疾病。

if you don't drink the authors found that out of a population of 100,000 non-drinkers in a given year 914 people will come down with one of these diseases so that's the Baseline risk a

作者發現，在10萬名不喝酒的人中，在一年內有914人會得這些疾病中的一種。所以這是基線風險——

little less than 1% chance of getting any of these diseases in one year but what happens if everyone starts drinking one drink a day that number Rises but

一年內得這些疾病中任何一種的機率略低於1%。但如果每個人開始每天喝一杯呢？這個數字上升了，但

only to 9919 just five more people come down with one of these diseases at two drinks a day another 60 people get sick every year that doesn't seem so bad

只上升到919。只多了五個人得這些疾病中的一種。每天兩杯，每年多了60人生病。這似乎沒那麼糟，

doesn't seem so bad I mean that's across one year so obviously the absolute numbers increase over time and as you get into heavy drinking the risk Rises

似乎沒那麼糟。我的意思是，這是一年的情況，所以顯然絕對數字會隨時間增加。當你進入重度飲酒時，風險上升

faster plotting this risk on a graph you can see that even at two drinks a day it stays pretty low it's not a j but it's not that steep of a line

更快。在圖表上繪製這個風險，你可以看到即使每天兩杯，它也保持相當低。它不是J形，但也不是一條很陡的線。

either so just how dangerous is this well there's still a frustrating amount of uncertainty around that question we need more good data but there's growing agreement that even a little bit of

那麼這到底有多危險？好吧，關於這個問題仍然有令人沮喪的不確定性。我們需要更多好的資料。但越來越多的人同意，即使一點點

alcohol can increase your risk of cancer and other diseases but at moderate doses it doesn't increase that risk by that much the World Health organization's announcement the surgeon general's

酒精也會增加你患癌症和其他疾病的風險。但在適度劑量下，它不會增加太多風險。世界衛生組織的公告、衛生總監的

warning they're all part of a kind of course correction Decades of headlines left people believing that moderate drinking was practically medicinal that it was actually really good for your

警告——它們都是一種修正。幾十年的標題讓人們相信適度飲酒幾乎是藥用的，它對你的

heart even as lots of new studies called that into question Public Health officials who are really publicizing these study results aren't trying to make everyone stop drinking people

心臟真的很好，即使很多新研究對此提出質疑。真正宣傳這些研究結果的公共衛生官員並不是在試圖讓每個人都停止喝酒。人們

assume I'm to no fun pant especially when you're an alcohol research you just don't get invited to new Z parties and stuff like that these days I'm what you

認為我是個無趣的人，特別是當你是酒精研究人員時。這些天你就是不會被邀請參加新年派對什麼的。我是你

call an occasional Drinker they just want to make sure everyone knows that there is some risk and it's important to say that risk is different for every individual you might have a family

所說的偶爾飲酒者。他們只是想確保每個人都知道有一些風險，而且重要的是要說風險對每個人都不同。你可能有癌症家族

history of cancer that raises your Baseline risk alcoholism could push you up that curve and there are a bunch of impacts this graph doesn't capture you might find that alcohol messes up your

史——這會提高你的基線風險。酗酒可能會把你推向曲線更高的位置。還有一堆這個圖表沒有捕捉到的影響。你可能發現酒精會搞亂你的

sleep your mental health your decisions your relationships on the flip side you might feel like drinking is an important part of your social life or Community it does seem like there's possibly a

睡眠、你的心理健康、你的決定、你的人際關係。另一方面，你可能覺得喝酒是你社交生活或社區的重要部分。似乎公眾可能有一種

tendency for the public to accept one of two answers good for me bad for me and like these Shades of Gray that you're painting maybe were naive about um how

傾向接受兩個答案中的一個——對我好或對我不好。而且，你正在描繪的這些灰色地帶，也許我們對

people might register that it's either can't do it or all clear you know for anything right right it's messy it's difficult I'm not sure how to finish this episode with in a satisfying way

人們可能如何理解這一點太天真了。要麼不能做，要麼全部可以。你知道，對任何事情都是這樣，對吧？對，這很複雜，很困難。我不確定如何以令人滿意的方式結束這一集。

yeah uh it'll come to you to your health if you're interested in how we know what we know you can join us on patreon where we just started hosting a

是的，它會來到你的...為你的健康乾杯。如果你對我們如何知道我們所知道的感興趣，你可以在Patreon上加入我們，我們剛開始主辦

monthly science paper book club we love talking to our patreon subscribers and we really couldn't do this without them we're also supported by the Alfred P Sloan foundation in association with IMI

每月的科學論文讀書俱樂部。我們喜歡和我們的Patreon訂閱者交談，沒有他們我們真的做不到這個。我們也得到Alfred P. Sloan基金會與IMI的支持，

The Independent Media initiative the Sloan Foundation is enhancing public understanding of science and technology in the modern era

獨立媒體倡議。Sloan基金會正在增進公眾對現代科學和技術的理解。