Hi everyone, I'm Gunjen Banerjee >> and I'm Telis Demos. Welcome back to another episode of WSJ's Take on the Week. We've got a busy show today. We're going to talk government unshut. We're

大家好，我是 Gunjen Banerjee，我是 Telis Demos。歡迎回到《華爾街日報》週報的另一集。今天節目很忙。我們將談論政府停擺。我們

going to talk economic data or or are we TBD? Um and we're going to have a big conversation about AI, not from the stock market point of view, but from the

將談論經濟數據，或者我們會嗎？待定。我們還將進行一場關於 AI 的大對話，不是從股市的角度，而是從

bond market point of view, which I think is going to be a big story in 2026. And speaking of which, we'd like your help, listeners and audience, for our upcoming

債券市場的角度，我認為這將是 2026 年的一個大故事。說到這，我們想要你們的幫助，聽眾和觀眾，為我們即將到來的

episodes. We'd like you to send us a question about what you think will be the big topics and questions in 2026.

節目。我們希望你們發送一個關於你認為 2026 年的大話題和問題會是什麼的問題。

>> We want to hear what's on your mind right now as we head into 2026. So, if you have a big question about markets, finance, the economy, we want to hear

我們想聽聽你現在進入 2026 年時在想什麼。所以，如果你有關於市場、金融、經濟的大問題，我們想

it. So, send us a note at take on the weekwsg.com >> or drop in something in the comments in your venue of choice. So tell us, it seems like the government shutdown is over.

聽到。所以，發郵件到 take on the weekwsg.com 或在你選擇的平臺上留下評論。那麼告訴我們，看來政府停擺結束了。

>> It is officially over in the sense that the Senate, the House, and the president have all agreed on a legislation to keep funding the government. But is the

從某種意義上說，它正式結束了，參議院、眾議院和總統都同意了一項繼續為政府提供資金的立法。但

economic impact over? I think that's the big question for markets. Whether or not and how quickly SNAP benefits, those food stamps, government assistance come back because that relies on states kind

經濟影響結束了嗎？我認為這是市場的大問題。SNAP 福利、那些食品券、政府援助是否以及多快會恢復，因為這取決於各州重新

of restarting those payments. Economic data, when are economic data reports going to start coming out? When will we have updates on inflation? Are there going to be periods of time where we

啟動這些支付。經濟數據，經濟數據報告什麼時候開始發布？我們什麼時候會有通脹更新？會不會有一段時間我們

just really never know what the official government answer was because there was no one there to collect that data? I think that is still TBD and is certainly

真的永遠不知道官方政府的答案是什麼，因為沒有人在那裡收集數據？我認為這仍然待定，肯定是

something that markets are going to be looking for in the weeks ahead. Then of course the can that was kicked as part of this agreement was on subsidies for

市場在接下來幾週將會關注的事情。然後當然，作為這個協議一部分被踢走的問題是關於

the affordable care act market. The Democrats want a vote on that.

平價醫療法案市場的補貼。民主黨想要對此投票。

Republicans are promising a vote by December. We'll see how that all works out. But again, that's a big economic uncertainty for a lot of people who are participate in that market. And of

共和黨承諾在十二月前投票。我們會看看這一切如何發展。但同樣，這對很多參與那個市場的人來說是一個很大的經濟不確定性。而且當然，

course, the the the resolution only keeps the government funded until January. So, we'll be here again in this seat in 2026. There's one thing on 2026 story, but what do you think? Do you

這個決議只是讓政府資金維持到一月。所以，我們會在 2026 年再次坐在這裡。這是 2026 年故事的一件事，但你怎麼想？你

think the market is ready to to resume its its upward ascent now?

認為市場準備好恢復上漲了嗎？

>> Yeah, it's not clear to me how much the shutdown has impacted markets even though we haven't gotten jobs data. We haven't gotten inflation data. We don't

是的，我不清楚停擺對市場影響有多大，即使我們沒有得到就業數據。我們沒有得到通脹數據。我們不

really know when we're going to get that data in the coming weeks u because the government hasn't been able to collect that data during the shutdown. But it's fascinating to me, the journal recently

真的知道我們什麼時候會在接下來幾週得到那些數據，因為政府在停擺期間無法收集數據。但對我來說很有趣的是，《華爾街日報》最近

had this piece about how despite this lack of economic data, one thing that's making people feel quite good about the economy right now is the fact that stock

有這篇文章說，儘管缺乏經濟數據，讓人們現在對經濟感到相當滿意的一件事是股票

prices are going up. And you know, the record dash that we've had in in equities has boosted sentiment among many Americans and made them feel more bullish about the economy. So, it's kind

價格正在上漲。你知道，我們在股票上創下的記錄提升了許多美國人的情緒，讓他們對經濟感到更加樂觀。所以，這

of a reverse feedback loop, right? I think a lot of people think of the stock market as this indicator of the economy, but it's actually become something that's driving how people feel about the

有點像是一個反向反饋循環，對吧？我認為很多人把股市看作是經濟的指標，但它實際上已經成為驅動人們對

economy because people have such a large exposure to the stock market these days.

經濟感受的東西，因為現在人們對股市有如此大的敞口。

>> Well, there you go. You're doing something patriotic every time you buy stocks and send the prices up higher.

好吧，就是這樣。每次你買股票並把價格推高時，你都在做愛國的事情。

We've talked about this a little bit before, right? But I think it's important to put some numbers around this wealth effect. And you know, for every,000 that your portfolio goes up,

我們之前談過這個，對吧？但我認為重要的是把一些數字放在這個財富效應上。你知道，你的投資組合每漲 1000 美元，

that can boost your spending by, say, $30. So there is a direct impact there.

可以讓你的消費增加大約 30 美元。所以那裡有直接的影響。

>> There's one group of people though who seem quite uncertain and they're very important and that is the committee of the Federal Reserve, the open market committee of the Federal Reserve. WSJ's

但有一群人似乎很不確定，他們非常重要，那就是聯準會委員會，聯準會公開市場委員會。《華爾街日報》的

chief economic correspondent, Nick Timmeros, kind of the Fed whisperer.

首席經濟記者 Nick Timmeros，算是聯準會耳語者。

what he's been writing is that there's really less certainty than ever and less agreement than ever and the lack of e economic data has not helped.

他一直在寫的是，確定性比以往任何時候都少，共識比以往任何時候都少，而經濟數據的缺乏也沒有幫助。

>> Of course, >> it seems like there's a really wide disagreement and you have people who feel like we've already pushed it enough. You have people who feel like we

當然，似乎有非常大的分歧，有些人覺得我們已經推得夠了。有些人覺得我們

haven't gone nearly far enough. So that getting economic data will be critical, I think, to to making a Fed consensus and then therefore giving investors some sense of where interest rates are going

還遠遠不夠。所以獲得經濟數據將是關鍵的，我認為，對於達成聯準會共識，然後給投資者一些關於利率將

to be. But until we're past that, I don't think the market's really going to have the the fuel to to to rally significantly. That would be my expectation for the next few weeks.

如何變化的感覺。但在我們過了那個階段之前，我不認為市場真的會有燃料大幅上漲。那是我對接下來幾週的預期。

>> It feels like the economic outlook is unusually murky heading into 2026, especially with this data issue. Another thing that's really going to hold the market back, I think, is that we seem to

感覺進入 2026 年經濟前景異常模糊，尤其是有這個數據問題。另一個真的會拖累市場的事情，我認為，是我們似乎

have hit, at least for now, some kind of ceiling on the AI trade. A couple of weeks ago, we had a pretty significant fallback in a number of AI stocks.

已經達到了，至少目前，AI 交易的某種上限。幾週前，我們在一些 AI 股票上有相當大的回落。

Nvidia, I think one day, fell 7%. uh those have come back a little bit but our colleagues uh Dan Gallagher and Asa Fitch recently took note of all the

Nvidia，我認為有一天下跌了 7%。那些已經回來了一點，但我們的同事 Dan Gallagher 和 Asa Fitch 最近注意到了所有

price equity ratios of the big kind of AI tech MAG7 companies and what they found that not one of them was trading at the high valuation levels. So it

大型 AI 科技 MAG7 公司的價格股權比率，他們發現沒有一家在高估值水平交易。所以

seems like investors have started to peel back some of those bets and the big uncertainty that's hanging around those AI stocks is the expenditures, the spending. But Genin, you know, I know

似乎投資者已經開始撤回一些賭注，而圍繞這些 AI 股票的最大不確定性是支出、開支。但 Genin，你知道，我知道

you look closely at retail investors and and kind of talk to a lot of different different investors. What's your sense of like how the AI trade is doing at this very moment?

你密切關注零售投資者，並與很多不同的投資者交談。你對 AI 交易目前的狀況有什麼感覺？

>> I think people keep piling in. I mean, people keep piling into the stock market, right? Even over the volatility that we've seen over the past few weeks,

我認為人們一直在持續買入。我是說，人們一直在持續買入股市，對吧？即使在過去幾週我們看到的波動中，

US fund flows have still been really strong and a lot of that is dependent on on big tech.

美國基金流入仍然非常強勁，其中很大一部分取決於大型科技。

>> Well, the question is how much more does this trade have to go and how much more money is it going to put in people's pockets? And of course, we have Nvidia

問題是這個交易還有多少上漲空間，還會給人們口袋裡帶來多少錢？當然，我們有 Nvidia

earnings this coming week, which are an event not just to talk about Nvidia's numbers, but to talk about what's going on with the AI economy. And interestingly, we did see the giant

下週的財報，這不僅是談論 Nvidia 數字的事件，也是談論 AI 經濟正在發生什麼的事件。有趣的是，我們確實看到了巨頭

Japanese investor Soft Bank sell a big chunk of its Nvidia stock recently and actually to fund a bigger investment in Open AI. So, it's in that sense shifting

日本投資者軟銀最近出售了大量 Nvidia 股票，實際上是為了資助對 Open AI 的更大投資。所以，從某種意義上說，它正在

some of its bet from the chips themselves to the applications like chat GBT which is what open AI makes. So, that's an interesting trend that I think people are going to be wondering where

把一些賭注從晶片本身轉移到像 Chat GPT 這樣的應用程式，這是 Open AI 製造的。所以，這是一個有趣的趨勢，我認為人們會想知道

is the money heading just within the AI trade. What stocks might benefit from here? Maybe it's less chip makers and more applications. So, the AI trade might continue, but what form it takes

錢在 AI 交易中往哪裡去。哪些股票可能從這裡受益？也許是少一些晶片製造商，多一些應用程式。所以，AI 交易可能會繼續，但它會採取什麼形式

might be really the big question >> and what does it look like in the bond market?

可能真的是大問題，那它在債券市場看起來怎麼樣？

>> Well, let's lay out some of the numbers that I think people need to to wrap their heads around when it comes to financing. You flip through analyst

好吧，讓我們列出一些我認為人們需要理解的數字，當涉及到融資時。你翻閱分析師

notes from, you know, big banks, you see numbers like, you know, the price tags for the AI buildout, and that includes not just the data centers, but the power, the chips, everything that goes

大銀行的筆記，你會看到像，你知道，AI 建設的價格標籤，這不僅包括數據中心，還包括電力、晶片、所有進入

into it. three, five, seven trillion. And even though tech companies are very big, rich companies with lots of cash, that's so much money that even for those companies, it it's a it's a question

其中的東西。三、五、七兆。雖然科技公司是非常大、富有、現金充裕的公司，但那是如此多的錢，即使對這些公司來說，這也是一個問題

mark of how they're going to get there.

如何達到那裡。

And so, you've seen a bunch of different things happening. You've seen these what people call kind of circular financing deals where uh if you want to buy chips

所以，你已經看到了一堆不同的事情正在發生。你看到了人們所說的循環融資交易，如果你想從我這裡買晶片

from me, why don't I lend you some money and then you can do that. That might be a nice cheap way to get some debt. The

為什麼我不借你一些錢，然後你就可以做到。那可能是一種獲得一些便宜債務的好方法。

person who wants to sell it to you might be willing to lend to you at a low rate, but that's also kind of a wonky arrangement that raises questions of,

想賣給你的人可能願意以低利率借給你，但那也是一種奇怪的安排，引發了一些問題，

okay, is this is this bubble just fueling itself? Uh is it profitable for companies to do this, >> right? And it's also stoked a lot of comparisons to what happened during the com boom.

好的，這個泡沫是不是在自我膨脹？公司這樣做有利可圖嗎？對吧？而且這也引發了很多與網路泡沫時期發生的事情的比較。

>> So, it looks like there's going to be a lot of other financing that's needed.

所以，看起來還需要很多其他融資。

And one of the places that companies will be getting that from is the bond market. And by the bond market, I mean really like the mainstream what they call investment grade or high-grade bond

公司獲得這些融資的地方之一就是債券市場。說到債券市場，我指的是主流的、人們所說的投資級或高級債券

market. And so that's the market that probably will fund a good portion of this because that's one of the biggest credit markets in the world. Uh there again, the numbers there are quite big.

市場。所以那是可能會為這其中很大一部分提供資金的市場，因為那是世界上最大的信貸市場之一。同樣，那裡的數字相當大。

Uh you have JP Morgan saying that they think the high-grade markets could absorb $300 billion of AI and data center related paper over just the next year. They think that that could be a

你有摩根大通說，他們認為高級市場在接下來一年可能吸收 3000 億美元的 AI 和數據中心相關債券。他們認為那可能是

trillion half dollars of funding from that bond market over the next five years. And so the question is what does this mean for bond investors that there's all this new paper as they say

未來五年從那個債券市場獲得一兆五千億美元的資金。所以問題是，對於債券投資者來說，所有這些新的債券，如他們所說的

coming their way? Is that good for them?

向他們襲來意味著什麼？這對他們有好處嗎？

Is that a lot more stuff to invest in?

這是不是有更多東西可以投資？

Or is the same worry that's been the conversation about stocks, oh the S&P 500 is basically just a big bet on AI, is that going to happen to your bond

還是同樣的擔憂，就是關於股票的對話，哦，標普 500 基本上只是對 AI 的大賭注，這會發生在你的債券

funds as well? And is that a good or a bad thing? Well, they say the bond investors are the smart money, right?

基金上嗎？這是好事還是壞事？好吧，他們說債券投資者是聰明的錢，對吧？

>> Well, and so we called one of the smarties in the bond market. Uh he's a fixed income guru, I dare say. Uh his name is Gee Labos. I had a conversation

好吧，所以我們打電話給債券市場的一位聰明人。他是一位固定收益專家，我敢說。他的名字是 Gee Labos。我本週早些時候和

with him earlier this week. He is the chief fixed income strategist at Wealth Manager Janney Montgomery Scott. We had a wide-ranging conversation about AI bonds, the bond market, what does the

他進行了對話。他是財富管理公司 Janney Montgomery Scott 的首席固定收益策略師。我們進行了廣泛的對話，關於 AI 債券、債券市場、

Fed and interest rates mean for all this? And we're going to have that conversation after the break.

聯準會和利率對這一切意味著什麼？廣告後我們將進行那個對話。

Welcome back. We're joined by Gee Labos. He is the chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery. Scott Gee, welcome to the show.

歡迎回來。我們邀請到了 Gee Labos。他是 Janney Montgomery 的首席固定收益策略師。Scott Gee，歡迎來到節目。

>> Thank you for having me. >> So, Gee, why don't you tell us about what's going on in the credit markets with AI? Is that having a big effect on

感謝邀請。那麼，Gee，你為什麼不告訴我們信貸市場與 AI 正在發生什麼？這是否對

things like bonds the same way it is on stocks?

債券產生像對股票一樣大的影響？

>> Well, we talk about AI oftentimes in uh in today's financial markets. I I really want to recast that a little bit and describe the concrete need for building

好吧，我們在今天的金融市場上經常談論 AI。我真的想稍微重新構建一下，把具體需要建造的東西描述為

and investing stuff as data centers at large. And it's not just the AI oriented companies or software companies that are that are using the storage, but it's corporations too who are seeking to have

大規模的數據中心投資。這不僅僅是面向 AI 的公司或軟體公司在使用存儲，還有企業也在尋求將

their data colllocated with some of the processing power to speed things up.

他們的數據與一些處理能力放在一起以加快速度。

Tech companies usually you think of you know their main asset are the the people who work for them and the things they code right but now it's kind of about

科技公司通常你會想到他們的主要資產是為他們工作的人和他們編寫的代碼，對吧，但現在也是關於

physical assets too having those data centers and the computer processing necessary for AI that's a big change >> there's a physical location where this data is stored and kept and that

實體資產，擁有 AI 所需的數據中心和計算處理能力，這是一個很大的變化。有一個物理位置存儲這些數據，那個

physical location requires all sorts of construction infrastructure >> and so even though tech companies are known for having lots of cash at the scale of the investment they're talking

物理位置需要各種建設基礎設施。所以儘管科技公司以擁有大量現金著稱，按照他們談論的投資規模

about right some estimates are you know let's Morgan Stanley analyst recently said they foresaw like a $3 trillion sort of financing need for AI by 2028 and they thought that you know cash flow

對吧，一些估計是，你知道，摩根士丹利的分析師最近說他們預計到 2028 年 AI 大約需要 3 兆美元的融資需求，他們認為現金流

could maybe meet about half of that. So that leaves a trillion half dollars and a lot of that might come from the bond markets the markets where you and I and

大約能滿足一半。所以剩下一兆五千億美元，很多可能來自債券市場，你我和

pension funds and everybody go to buy the corporate bonds that provide that yield part of our portfolio. So what's it doing to the bond market to be seeing and anticipating all that issuance? So

養老基金和每個人去購買提供投資組合收益部分的企業債券的市場。那麼看到和預期所有那些發行對債券市場有什麼影響？

the issuance within what we traditionally call the bond market meaning intermediate to longerterm bonds that are purchasable as as you referenced by individuals by corporations etc. That's relatively

所以在我們傳統上稱為債券市場的範圍內發行，意思是中期到長期債券，可以被像你提到的個人、企業等購買。那是相對

recent, right? So, so I think we need to go back a little bit to kind of the origins of the cloud build out 2010ish to 2015ish or so. Now, originally these

最近的，對吧？所以，我認為我們需要回顧一下雲建設的起源，大約 2010 年到 2015 年左右。現在，最初這些

uh physical locations where data was kept and companies like what we call today the hyperscalers, they were often built by REITs, real estate investment trusts, and there's a handful of them.

保存數據的物理位置和我們今天所說的超大規模公司，它們通常由 REITs、房地產投資信託建造，有幾家。

For a brief note, I may refer to companies from time to time, but they're really just as examples. I'm not advocating or advising that that one company isn't somehow better than

簡短說明，我可能會不時提到公司，但它們只是作為例子。我不是在倡導或建議某一家公司不知怎的比

another, but just for sake of example, Google might go rent space in one of these data centers. And eventually these projects became large enough that it was significant enough for Google and all

另一家更好，只是為了舉例，Google 可能會去租用這些數據中心的空間。最終這些項目變得足夠大，對 Google 和所有

the other hyperscalers to stop just renting them and start creating their own spaces. Uh then in 2019 there was a kind of esoteric accounting change which basically said that anytime you have a

其他超大規模公司來說，足以停止只是租用它們，開始創建自己的空間。然後在 2019 年有一個有點深奧的會計變化，基本上說每當你有

long-term lease when you're leasing space or leasing a data center in this example you need to bring it on balance sheet >> on balance sheet like they own it

長期租賃，當你租用空間或在這個例子中租用數據中心時，你需要把它放到資產負債表上。放到資產負債表上就像他們擁有它

they're responsible for the debt it's their asset >> and so this change in accounting regulations spurred a change in financing as well. So gradually over time from really that 2019 lease event

他們對債務負責，那是他們的資產。所以這個會計法規的變化也促進了融資的變化。所以從那個 2019 年租賃事件逐漸

all the way through today 2025 these big tech companies have been gradually bringing data centers onto their own balance sheets and that means borrowing money right in order to finance them

一直到今天 2025 年，這些大型科技公司一直在逐漸把數據中心放到自己的資產負債表上，這意味著為了融資它們需要借錢

>> and you tallied up recently you said that you know if you kind of uh extended the recent deals that we've seen from Meta and Google across the sort of hyperscaler so-called hyperscaler sort

你最近統計說，你知道，如果你把 Meta 和 Google 最近的交易擴展到所謂的超大規模

of AI companies that that would be maybe a 20% increase in the size of the investment grade bond market, the kind of the main highquality corporate bond market. That's a pretty huge extension

AI 公司，那可能是投資級債券市場規模的 20% 增長，那種主要的高品質企業債券市場。那是一個相當大的擴展

of the size of the of the bond market.

債券市場的規模。

What does that mean as an investor if just the size of the bond market is growing so much?

作為投資者，如果債券市場規模增長這麼多意味著什麼？

>> Yeah, it's a really big shift. In an average year right now, uh there's about very round numbers $800 billion of new financing. Uh and that means new

是的，這是一個非常大的轉變。在一個平均年份，大約有非常粗略的數字 8000 億美元的新融資。那意味著

borrowings in the bond markets. And so if we just extend those hyperscaler numbers to issuing debt every six months, uh we'd be talking about 20% additional in addition to that $800

債券市場中的新借款。所以如果我們只是把那些超大規模數字擴展到每六個月發行債務，我們將談論除了那 8000

billion of new money. So in other words, the US investment grade bond markets instead of growing by call it 4ish% a year would end up growing by five or 6%

億之外還有 20% 的新資金。換句話說，美國投資級債券市場不是每年增長大約 4%，最終會每年增長 5 或 6%

a year. It doesn't sound like that much, but we're talking about a net 150 to as much as $200 billion of incremental demand for borrowing and somebody's got to be there to lend it.

聽起來不多，但我們談的是淨增 1500 到 2000 億美元的借款增量需求，有人必須在那裡借出。

>> Let me just see if I take your point though about lending. Like you mean people are people are buying bonds, right? Interest rates are relatively high. the the the yields on them are

讓我看看我是否理解你關於借貸的觀點。你的意思是人們正在購買債券，對吧？利率相對較高。它們的收益率

higher than they were in previous years perhaps and there's a lot of people who who essentially want to lock up those yields for a long period of time. So

比前幾年高，有很多人基本上想長期鎖定那些收益。所以

there's enough demand to meet that supply more than enough demand and arguably there's not enough supply, right? So as a result today the additional yield that investment grade bonds pay compared to government bonds

有足夠的需求來滿足供應，甚至超過足夠的需求，可以說沒有足夠的供應，對吧？所以結果今天投資級債券相比政府債券支付的額外收益

pretty narrow. But if supply and demand come into balance and maybe hypothetically the markets get overs supplied from AI issuance uh in a year or two that could

相當窄。但如果供需達到平衡，假設市場在一兩年內被 AI 發行過度供應

cause spreads to widen and the markets to underperform because supply kind of overwhelms the demand.

可能導致利差擴大，市場表現不佳，因為供應有點壓倒需求。

>> What does that mean if I'm an investor?

如果我是投資者，這意味著什麼？

If you say spreads are widening, meaning that the the yield that people want to own a corporate bond versus what they would get on a treasury is is more. Now,

如果你說利差在擴大，意味著人們想擁有企業債券相比他們從國債獲得的收益更多。現在，

I guess if I'm buying new bonds, if I'm just coming into the market, maybe I like that. But what if I already own bonds? How would you say this shakes out

我想如果我在購買新債券，如果我剛進入市場，也許我喜歡那樣。但如果我已經擁有債券呢？你會說這對

for for your typical kind of corporate bond investor?

你的典型企業債券投資者來說會怎樣？

>> So, so I'll take your your second point first. If I currently own bonds and spreads widen, that means that bond that I own is not going to perform as well,

所以，我先回答你的第二點。如果我目前擁有債券而利差擴大，那意味著我擁有的那個債券表現不會那麼好，

right? The the nice thing about the bond markets is they do well when absolutely nothing happens. makes lives for people like me a little bit boring sometimes,

對吧？債券市場的好處是當什麼都沒發生時它們表現很好。讓像我這樣的人的生活有時有點無聊，

but that's kind of like what what we like to see as strategists and as fixed income portfolio managers. We like to see not much happen. And so if nothing

但那是作為策略師和固定收益投資組合經理我們喜歡看到的。我們喜歡看到不太多事情發生。所以如果什麼都

happens, spreads remain flat. We get to collect our coupon, we go home, we have a nice dinner. Now, if spreads widen, the market value of that bond that we

沒發生，利差保持平穩。我們可以收取我們的票息，回家，享受一頓美好的晚餐。現在，如果利差擴大，我們

own, which has its seen spread widening, it declines relative to other stuff within the bond markets. Um, so it's not the number one source of returns within the fixed income markets, but it's an

擁有的那個債券的市場價值，它看到利差擴大，它相對於債券市場內其他東西下降。嗯，所以它不是固定收益市場中收益的第一來源，但它是一個

important one and it's one of the biggest determinants of credit, meaning corporate bond market returns. But what about the just the credit risk implied by these bonds? Are there any risks that

重要的來源，也是信貸、企業債券市場回報的最大決定因素之一。但這些債券所暗示的信用風險呢？有沒有

as an investor you're thinking about that it might be different for companies financing AI? We talk a lot about whether there's an AI bubble. Are people over optimistic about the demand for AI?

作為投資者你正在考慮的風險，對於為 AI 融資的公司可能有所不同？我們談論很多是否有 AI 泡沫。人們是否對 AI 的需求過於樂觀？

What would that mean for for bond holders if say you know the AI kind of revolution doesn't turn out to be as advertised? Is there a kind of credit

如果說 AI 革命沒有像宣傳的那樣實現，這對債券持有人意味著什麼？這是一種人們應該考慮的信用

risk that people should be thinking about here too?

風險嗎？

>> Yeah, that that's an excellent question. So I'm going to separate it out into two pieces. One is going to be the financings that many companies have issued to uh complete prior data centers

是的，那是一個很好的問題。所以我要把它分成兩部分。一個是許多公司為完成之前的數據中心所發行的融資，

call it before 2025. In many cases, what these hyperscalers have done has been to partner with other entities to co-own and co-barorrow on a data center. Generally where they've

稱為 2025 年之前。在許多情況下，這些超大規模公司所做的是與其他實體合作共同擁有和共同借款一個數據中心。通常他們

done that through is private lending and these private lenders they take a range of investors money and pension funds money mostly institutions but some individuals and they provide for loans.

通過的是私人借貸，這些私人貸方接受各種投資者的錢和養老基金的錢，大多數是機構但也有一些個人，他們提供貸款。

And in the case of many of these, the data center or the entity to which they're lending to is sort of a standalone project. And if that project

在許多情況下，數據中心或他們借給的實體是一個獨立的項目。如果那個項目

does well and becomes useful to its sponsoring company, that's wonderful. If it doesn't, well, then you've got sort of this asset that might have credit problems down the road and not have a

做得好並對其贊助公司有用，那太棒了。如果沒有，那你就有了一個可能在未來有信用問題並且對其最終

lot of use to its end uh sponsor. And then maybe there's some questions that this this this thing this unit this joint venture this lending project could fail. I think those risks are pretty

贊助商沒什麼用的資產。然後也許有一些問題是這個東西、這個單位、這個合資企業、這個貸款項目可能會失敗。我認為這些風險

modest right now. Now the other piece I wanted to mention briefly is what we call the unsecured borrowing from a company. So when a hyperscaler goes out and uses its own creditworthiness to

現在相當小。現在我想簡要提到的另一部分是我們所說的公司無擔保借款。所以當超大規模公司用自己的信用去

borrow in the bond markets, generally that's called an unsecured loan or an unsecured bond. basically the company promises to pay it back and so that that portion so far is is pretty small but

在債券市場借款時，通常那被稱為無擔保貸款或無擔保債券。基本上公司承諾會還款，所以那部分到目前為止相當小，但

hypothetically that could be what's growing in the coming years and it really could change the profile of the corporate bond markets by quite a bit if hyperscalers are genuinely issuing 100

假設那可能是未來幾年增長的部分，它真的可能相當大地改變企業債券市場的面貌，如果超大規模公司真的每年發行 1000

or even 200 billion dollars a year of borrowings because the the markets right now don't have a lot of tech companies in them but if that is the case over

甚至 2000 億美元的借款，因為現在市場上沒有很多科技公司，但如果真是那樣，經過

multiple years all of a sudden theor Corporate bond markets would end up filled with tech borrowers as well.

多年，突然企業債券市場也會充滿科技借款人。

>> Yeah. Tech companies generally haven't been big borrowers just because they've they've been so profitable. They've generated such enormous kind of cash flows. What would it mean if the bond

是的。科技公司通常不是大借款人，只是因為他們一直非常盈利。他們產生了如此巨大的現金流。如果債券

market started to feel like the equity market? I mean, we talk all the time about the concentration of the stock market in big tech companies. Would that be something problematic for investors

市場開始感覺像股票市場會意味著什麼？我是說，我們總是在談論股市在大型科技公司中的集中度。這對投資者來說會是問題嗎

or like the stock market? Would people just sort of say, well, that's where we want to be. We want to be in these big tech companies.

還是像股市一樣？人們會說，好吧，那就是我們想要的地方。我們想要在這些大型科技公司。

>> Well, ironically, the bond markets already have a pretty big concentration uh in one industry, which is banks. So, banks have been prolific borrowers in the bond markets for practical reasons

好吧，諷刺的是，債券市場已經在一個行業有相當大的集中度，那就是銀行。所以，銀行幾十年來一直是債券市場的多產借款人，出於實際原因

for for decades. And they do represent about round numbers about 30% of the US corporate bond markets. Tech companies represent uh at the 7% range.

而且他們確實代表了美國企業債券市場大約 30%。科技公司代表大約 7% 的範圍。

So again, hypothetically, if this trend of borrowing from tech companies continues, that portion could double pretty readily. And so, ironically, you'd probably have a little bit more of a diverse corporate bond market. It

所以同樣，假設如果科技公司借款的這種趨勢繼續，那個比例可能很容易翻倍。所以，諷刺的是，你可能會有一個更多元化的企業債券市場。它

would be a little bit less concentrated in the banks like it is today.

會少一點像今天那樣集中在銀行。

>> How would you sort of talk to an investor about how to think about these markets over the next years ahead as tech companies really begin to take take

你會如何與投資者談論在未來幾年如何看待這些市場，因為科技公司真的開始在

their rightful place uh in the bond market as as as bigger issuers?

債券市場中佔據他們應有的位置，作為更大的發行者？

right now it's not that big of a concern. Um, and the reason is that pricing in the corporate bond markets, we kind of think about it uh as individual companies and maybe a little

現在這不是一個很大的擔憂。原因是企業債券市場的定價，我們把它看作是個別公司，也許有點

bit as industries but mostly broken down by credit ratings, right? So whether an issuer is a tech company or say an industrial is arguably less important for their pricing than whether they are

按行業劃分，但主要是按信用評級劃分，對吧？所以一個發行者是科技公司還是比如說工業公司，對於他們的定價來說可能不如他們是否

rated double A or triple B. If we look at where corporate spreads have trended uh right now they're they're historically pretty tight. They're in about the 11thish percentile of all

被評為雙 A 或三 B 重要。如果我們看看企業利差的趨勢，現在它們在歷史上相當緊。它們大約在所有

history. So for that reason uh we don't think the corporate bond markets are very attractive right now. But if there is an increase in issuance and spreads widen to call it about the 30th

歷史的第 11 百分位左右。所以出於那個原因，我們認為企業債券市場現在不是很有吸引力。但如果發行量增加，利差擴大到大約歷史的第 30

percentile of history which would be about 90 basis points.9% over government bonds that would be moderately attractive.

百分位，大約是 90 個基點，0.9% 高於政府債券，那會是中等有吸引力的。

>> What role does the Federal Reserve play in in these dynamics? We know that interest rates set by the Fed are you know on the relative high side right now

聯準會在這些動態中扮演什麼角色？我們知道聯準會設定的利率，你知道，現在在相對高的一邊

but coming down. We've seen cuts. People are anticipating more cuts. What does it mean for the bond market and for issuers if the Fed is cutting as as people expect right now

但正在下降。我們已經看到了降息。人們預期更多降息。如果聯準會像人們現在預期的那樣降息，這對債券市場和發行者意味著什麼

>> as the Federal Reserve lowers their target for overnight interest rates?

當聯準會降低他們對隔夜利率的目標時？

Interest rates in the market at large will generally come down all else equal.

市場整體的利率通常會下降，其他條件不變。

So when interest rates come down that benefits bond prices today it's not specific to corporate bonds or treasury government bonds or high yield bonds. It kind of benefits everything. So if the

所以當利率下降時，這有利於今天的債券價格，這不是特定於企業債券或國債政府債券或高收益債券。它對一切都有好處。所以如果

Fed cuts, does that make corporate bonds more appealing?

聯準會降息，這會讓企業債券更有吸引力嗎？

>> Yeah, I'm going to answer that a little bit indirectly. So one thing that for sure the Federal Reserve lowering lowering interest rates does is it immediately lowers the income

是的，我要稍微間接地回答這個問題。所以聯準會降低利率肯定會做的一件事是它立即降低了

generation on things like treasury bills, on things like money market funds on >> very short-term money, essentially cash, right?

國庫券、貨幣市場基金這類東西的收益，非常短期的資金，本質上是現金，對吧？

>> Yeah. Things like bank accounts. And so at least on that basis, the really short-term instruments become less attractive. And in general, intermediate to longerterm corporate bonds, their

是的。像銀行帳戶這樣的東西。所以至少在那個基礎上，真正短期的工具變得不那麼有吸引力。而一般來說，中期到長期企業債券，它們的

interest rates will be more stable. Uh and so it does make sense for sure right now to lock in at least a portion of investment portfolios to intermediate to

利率會更穩定。所以現在把投資組合的至少一部分鎖定在中期到

longer term fixed income, whether that's corporates or treasuries. And in part, it's because the Federal Reserve is in the process of cutting interest rates.

長期固定收益是有意義的，無論是企業債券還是國債。部分原因是聯準會正在降息過程中。

All right. Well, we've got one last question for Gee Labs of Janie Montgomery Scott after a break.

好的。那麼，廣告後我們還有一個問題要問 Janie Montgomery Scott 的 Gee Labs。

Welcome back. All right, so Gee, I know on this show we use the word bubble a lot. We talk a lot about a stock market bubble. People can look at the PE ratio

歡迎回來。好的，Gee，我知道在這個節目中我們經常用「泡沫」這個詞。我們談論很多關於股市泡沫。人們可以看看標普 500 的市盈率

of the S&P 500 and decide for themselves if it's historically totally bizarre or if it's justified. What about bonds? How do we know if bonds are in a bubbly market or not?

自己決定它是否在歷史上完全奇怪還是有理由的。那債券呢？我們怎麼知道債券是否處於泡沫市場？

>> So I can say that that bond prices can definitionally never be bubbleishious.

所以我可以說債券價格從定義上說永遠不會是泡沫的。

Why? Because a bond matures. We know its value when it matures. And so there's no infinite future potential in fixed income. So bond prices can't be in a bubble. Bond quantities, meaning like

為什麼？因為債券會到期。我們知道它到期時的價值。所以固定收益沒有無限的未來潛力。所以債券價格不能處於泡沫中。債券數量，意思是

the lending in markets, can be in a bubble. and we saw one in 2005 through 2007.

市場上的借貸，可以處於泡沫中。我們在 2005 年到 2007 年看到了一個。

>> Is there a way though for the stock market bubble to find its way into the bond market as all these tech companies are coming to market? What might

有沒有一種方式讓股市泡沫進入債券市場，因為所有這些科技公司都在進入市場？可能

investors ignore certain risks or not ask for enough yield on AI related bonds because they're they have such firm conviction in that that maybe those bonds become like really not not sort of

投資者會忽視某些風險或對 AI 相關債券要求的收益不夠，因為他們對此有如此堅定的信念，也許那些債券真的變得不是很好的

a good investment. So there's a world in which all the borrowing from hyperscalers and AI companies really gets big and then those investments don't pay off and then there are

投資。有一個世界，所有來自超大規模公司和 AI 公司的借款真的變得很大，然後那些投資沒有回報，然後在

problems down the road. You know as far as borrowing for the AI expansion goes we are in the maybe second inning. So we've got a very long way to determine

未來會有問題。你知道，就 AI 擴張的借款而言，我們處於大約第二局。所以，我們還有很長的路要確定

whether there's bubble risk or not and it's not visible from here.

是否有泡沫風險，從這裡看不出來。

>> All right. Right. So, it sounds like you're saying maybe we should table some of that bubble talk when it comes to the bond market. But what is it that bond

好的。對。所以，聽起來你在說當涉及到債券市場時，也許我們應該把一些泡沫的討論擱置一下。但債券

investors should be thinking about as all these tech companies kind of enter that part of the market to finance the AI revolution?

投資者應該考慮什麼，因為所有這些科技公司進入那個市場來為 AI 革命融資？

>> I think the most important thing and this is for the economy large not just bond investors is whether this investment is both economically and financially but also society productive.

我認為最重要的事情，這對大經濟來說不僅僅是對債券投資者，是這個投資在經濟和財務上以及對社會是否有生產力。

Uh and that last one I think is a particular question mark. there have been no shortage of discussions about the uh the economic and social value of

而我認為最後一個是特別的問號。關於 AI 長期的經濟和社會價值有很多討論。

AI for the long run. I don't know what that looks like. That is far above my pay grade, but that's what I'd be a little bit concerned about.

我不知道那看起來像什麼。那遠遠超出我的能力範圍，但那是我會有點擔心的。

>> All right, Gee. Well, matters of philosophy and society. Yeah, I guess that's uh I guess that's that's a topic for another episode. All right. Well, Gee, thanks so much for joining us.

好的，Gee。好吧，哲學和社會的問題。是的，我想那是另一集的話題。好的。那麼，Gee，非常感謝你加入我們。

>> Thank you. Her question wasn't recorded for exactly. It also like wasn't it wasn't a question. I don't know. And then it was that one guy. There

謝謝你。她的問題沒有完全錄下來。也像是它不是一個問題。我不知道。然後有那個人。

was that one. We got that one guy. We got that one guy who saved us.

有那一個。我們有那一個救了我們的人。