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- Oil markets are muted following the US incursion into Venezuela, the ousted President Nicholas Maduro and that wait and see approach really reflects the amount of uncertainty there is
美國介入委內瑞拉後，石油市場反應平淡，被驅逐的總統馬杜羅。這種觀望態度反映了全球市場對於
within the global market as far as bringing some of that Venezuelan oil production back online.
讓委內瑞拉石油生產重新上線存在多大的不確定性。
This chart shows US oil prices and benchmark US crude futures recently traded for around $58 per barrel.
這張圖表顯示了美國油價，美國基準原油期貨最近的交易價格約為每桶 58 美元。
This is a normal day-to-day fluctuation in the oil market and doesn't really reflect a huge geopolitical shift.
這是石油市場正常的日常波動，並未真正反映重大的地緣政治變化。
Investment decisions in the oil industry often play out over the course of years and take billions of dollars at a time.
石油行業的投資決策通常需要數年時間，每次投入數十億美元。
Meanwhile, you need political certainty to actually take these investment decisions.
同時，你需要政治上的確定性才能真正做出這些投資決策。
I spent the last couple of days speaking to analysts in the oil industry as well as investors on Wall Street and the long and short of it is that
過去幾天，我一直在與石油行業分析師以及華爾街投資者交談，簡而言之，
they say it's too early to tell on how this will all shake out.
他們說現在要判斷這一切會如何發展還為時過早。
- We're gonna rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars.
我們將重建石油基礎設施，這將花費數十億美元。
It'll be paid for by the oil companies directly.
這將由石油公司直接支付。
- Now Venezuela, over the course of time, has become a much less influential oil producer due to years of underinvestment and mismanagement by the state run oil company.
由於多年的投資不足和國營石油公司的管理不善，委內瑞拉已成為影響力較小的石油生產國。
As you can see with this chart, Venezuelan oil imports to the United States totaled more than one million barrels per day at various points in the 1990s and early 2,000s.
從這張圖表可以看出，在 1990 年代和 2000 年代初的多個時期，委內瑞拉對美國的石油進口總量超過每天一百萬桶。
More recently, those imports have flowed to a trickle.
最近，這些進口已經減少到涓涓細流。
Within investing for the energy industry you have geologic factors, you have infrastructural factors, and you also have political factors.
在能源行業投資時，你需要考慮地質因素、基礎設施因素，還有政治因素。
Now Venezuela boasts pretty incredible geology with its oil reserves, but its infrastructure, the actual metal in the ground that you need to mine oil has deteriorated over the course of time.
委內瑞拉擁有相當驚人的地質條件和石油儲量，但其基礎設施，即開採石油所需的地下金屬設備，已隨時間惡化。
Meanwhile, its political institutions have also withered, and those last two buckets of factors are really what investors are keying in on as they're evaluating Venezuela going forward.
同時，其政治制度也已衰退，而投資者在評估委內瑞拉的未來時，正是關注這後兩類因素。
Despite all the uncertainty, investors this week have been fairly optimistic about the outlook for some of these US oil plays in Venezuela, and a part of that was with the actual
儘管存在諸多不確定性，本週投資者對美國在委內瑞拉的一些石油項目的前景相當樂觀，部分原因是
oil producers themselves, Chevron stock, for example, traded upwards on Monday, but the actual bigger benefit might be within the US refining sector.
石油生產商本身的表現，例如雪佛龍的股票週一上漲，但真正更大的受益者可能是美國煉油行業。
You have companies such as Phillips 66, Valero, and others, companies that have some of these assets on the US Gulf Coast that really like Venezuelan crude oil, their stocks have traded higher this week.
像 Phillips 66、Valero 等公司，這些在美國墨西哥灣沿岸擁有資產的公司非常喜歡委內瑞拉原油，它們的股票本週都上漲了。
Over the course of decades, various American companies have operated in Venezuela.
幾十年來，許多美國公司在委內瑞拉經營。
There was ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and of course Chevron.
有埃克森美孚、康菲石油，當然還有雪佛龍。
About 20 years ago the Venezuelan government nationalized some of those assets, particularly those from ExxonMobil and Conoco Phillips.
大約 20 年前，委內瑞拉政府將其中一些資產國有化，特別是埃克森美孚和康菲石油的資產。
More recently, Chevron has continued to operate in Venezuela through a licensing deal through the US government.
最近，雪佛龍通過美國政府的許可協議繼續在委內瑞拉運營。
They're operating around existing sanctions. That history leaves a big question mark for how these companies will operate going forward.
他們在現有制裁下運營。這段歷史給這些公司未來如何運營留下了大大的問號。
Chevron continues to operate of course, but other companies have been very mum on where they go from here.
雪佛龍當然繼續運營，但其他公司對下一步走向一直非常低調。
Oil prices have languished over the last couple of years and recently they've been trading south of $60 a barrel.
過去幾年油價一直低迷，最近交易價格低於每桶 60 美元。
Now, while oil companies are able to make a profit at that price, it doesn't really incentivize the type of massive investments that President Trump is talking about here.
雖然石油公司在這個價格下能夠獲利，但這並不能真正激勵川普總統所談論的那種大規模投資。
And until there is a runup in prices or some other incentive from the US government, it will be a hard sell to get companies to pull the trigger in massive potentially billion dollar investments.
除非油價上漲或美國政府提供其他激勵措施，否則很難說服公司在潛在數十億美元的大規模投資上扣動扳機。
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- Oil markets are muted following the US incursion into Venezuela, the ousted President Nicholas Maduro and that wait and see approach really reflects the amount of uncertainty there is
美國介入委內瑞拉後，石油市場反應平淡，被驅逐的總統馬杜羅。這種觀望態度反映了全球市場對於
within the global market as far as bringing some of that Venezuelan oil production back online.
讓委內瑞拉石油生產重新上線存在多大的不確定性。
This chart shows US oil prices and benchmark US crude futures recently traded for around $58 per barrel.
這張圖表顯示了美國油價，美國基準原油期貨最近的交易價格約為每桶 58 美元。
This is a normal day-to-day fluctuation in the oil market and doesn't really reflect a huge geopolitical shift.
這是石油市場正常的日常波動，並未真正反映重大的地緣政治變化。
Investment decisions in the oil industry often play out over the course of years and take billions of dollars at a time.
石油行業的投資決策通常需要數年時間，每次投入數十億美元。
Meanwhile, you need political certainty to actually take these investment decisions.
同時，你需要政治上的確定性才能真正做出這些投資決策。
I spent the last couple of days speaking to analysts in the oil industry as well as investors on Wall Street and the long and short of it is that
過去幾天，我一直在與石油行業分析師以及華爾街投資者交談，簡而言之，
they say it's too early to tell on how this will all shake out.
他們說現在要判斷這一切會如何發展還為時過早。
- We're gonna rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars.
我們將重建石油基礎設施，這將花費數十億美元。
It'll be paid for by the oil companies directly.
這將由石油公司直接支付。
- Now Venezuela, over the course of time, has become a much less influential oil producer due to years of underinvestment and mismanagement by the state run oil company.
由於多年的投資不足和國營石油公司的管理不善，委內瑞拉已成為影響力較小的石油生產國。
As you can see with this chart, Venezuelan oil imports to the United States totaled more than one million barrels per day at various points in the 1990s and early 2,000s.
從這張圖表可以看出，在 1990 年代和 2000 年代初的多個時期，委內瑞拉對美國的石油進口總量超過每天一百萬桶。
More recently, those imports have flowed to a trickle.
最近，這些進口已經減少到涓涓細流。
Within investing for the energy industry you have geologic factors, you have infrastructural factors, and you also have political factors.
在能源行業投資時，你需要考慮地質因素、基礎設施因素，還有政治因素。
Now Venezuela boasts pretty incredible geology with its oil reserves, but its infrastructure, the actual metal in the ground that you need to mine oil has deteriorated over the course of time.
委內瑞拉擁有相當驚人的地質條件和石油儲量，但其基礎設施，即開採石油所需的地下金屬設備，已隨時間惡化。
Meanwhile, its political institutions have also withered, and those last two buckets of factors are really what investors are keying in on as they're evaluating Venezuela going forward.
同時，其政治制度也已衰退，而投資者在評估委內瑞拉的未來時，正是關注這後兩類因素。
Despite all the uncertainty, investors this week have been fairly optimistic about the outlook for some of these US oil plays in Venezuela, and a part of that was with the actual
儘管存在諸多不確定性，本週投資者對美國在委內瑞拉的一些石油項目的前景相當樂觀，部分原因是
oil producers themselves, Chevron stock, for example, traded upwards on Monday, but the actual bigger benefit might be within the US refining sector.
石油生產商本身的表現，例如雪佛龍的股票週一上漲，但真正更大的受益者可能是美國煉油行業。
You have companies such as Phillips 66, Valero, and others, companies that have some of these assets on the US Gulf Coast that really like Venezuelan crude oil, their stocks have traded higher this week.
像 Phillips 66、Valero 等公司，這些在美國墨西哥灣沿岸擁有資產的公司非常喜歡委內瑞拉原油，它們的股票本週都上漲了。
Over the course of decades, various American companies have operated in Venezuela.
幾十年來，許多美國公司在委內瑞拉經營。
There was ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and of course Chevron.
有埃克森美孚、康菲石油，當然還有雪佛龍。
About 20 years ago the Venezuelan government nationalized some of those assets, particularly those from ExxonMobil and Conoco Phillips.
大約 20 年前，委內瑞拉政府將其中一些資產國有化，特別是埃克森美孚和康菲石油的資產。
More recently, Chevron has continued to operate in Venezuela through a licensing deal through the US government.
最近，雪佛龍通過美國政府的許可協議繼續在委內瑞拉運營。
They're operating around existing sanctions. That history leaves a big question mark for how these companies will operate going forward.
他們在現有制裁下運營。這段歷史給這些公司未來如何運營留下了大大的問號。
Chevron continues to operate of course, but other companies have been very mum on where they go from here.
雪佛龍當然繼續運營，但其他公司對下一步走向一直非常低調。
Oil prices have languished over the last couple of years and recently they've been trading south of $60 a barrel.
過去幾年油價一直低迷，最近交易價格低於每桶 60 美元。
Now, while oil companies are able to make a profit at that price, it doesn't really incentivize the type of massive investments that President Trump is talking about here.
雖然石油公司在這個價格下能夠獲利，但這並不能真正激勵川普總統所談論的那種大規模投資。
And until there is a runup in prices or some other incentive from the US government, it will be a hard sell to get companies to pull the trigger in massive potentially billion dollar investments.
除非油價上漲或美國政府提供其他激勵措施，否則很難說服公司在潛在數十億美元的大規模投資上扣動扳機。