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There's just so much debt. There's so much that has to be financed here over the next 24 months. It's it's eyepopping. Um, you know, the latest estimate is on the order of 5.3 trillion.
有太多債務了。在接下來 24 個月內有太多需要融資的東西。這令人瞠目結舌。最新的估計是大約 5.3 兆美元。
>> Wow. >> So, Miriam, >> yes. Tell us.
哇。那麼，Miriam，是的。告訴我們。
>> Another week, another week to take on >> uh here at WSJ's Take on the Week and >> it's a doozy earnings-wise. We're really in the meat of earning season and so
又一週，又一週的《華爾街日報》週報，這是財報季的關鍵時期。我們真的處於財報季的核心，所以
we've got reports from big names across a bunch of different industries. What's a report that you're looking forward to this week?
我們有來自一堆不同行業的大公司的報告。你這週期待的報告是什麼？
>> I'm looking at Chevron and Exxon um two of the oil majors because of what's been happening in Venezuela. Um, you know, the US has basically taken control of
我在看雪佛龍和埃克森，兩家石油巨頭，因為委內瑞拉發生的事情。你知道，美國基本上已經控制了
Venezuelan oil production and in theory at least, Chevron is the oil major that stands to benefit the most because it already has a presence in Venezuela and
委內瑞拉的石油生產，理論上至少，雪佛龍是最有可能受益的石油巨頭，因為它已經在委內瑞拉有業務，
it wants to have access to that oil. But Chevron has also said it's not ready to just go barreling in, no pun intended, to Venezuela because it needs a few
它想要獲得那些石油。但雪佛龍也表示它還沒準備好就這樣衝進委內瑞拉，無意雙關，因為它需要一些
assurances. First, one is that the government will be stable, which we're not quite to that point yet. And the other is that um oil prices will be high enough that it makes sense economically
保證。首先，一是政府要穩定，我們還沒完全到那一步。另一個是石油價格要高到在經濟上有意義
to invest there. >> Yeah. There seems to be this weird tension where the the point of it is to lower oil prices, right?
才在那裡投資。是的。似乎有這種奇怪的緊張關係，目的是降低油價，對吧？
>> Yeah. Trump has said $50 a barrel is where he wants oil to be, but Chevron's like, "Well, that's not high enough for to make it worth our while."
是的。川普說 50 美元一桶是他想要的油價，但雪佛龍說：「好吧，那還不夠高，不值得我們投入。」
>> Yeah. And I know that there's complexities in the pricing of oil. you know, a barrel here is not necessarily the same price as a barrel there, and it
是的。我知道石油定價有複雜性。你知道，這裡一桶不一定是那裡一桶的價格，這
has to do with the the types of of refining facilities that are in the US Gulf and things like that. But it just overall doesn't seem like Chevron is
與美國墨西哥灣的煉油設施類型等有關。但整體來說，雪佛龍似乎
super keen on this Venezuela opportunity at the moment. But I guess when they report earnings, maybe we'll hear more about maybe they'll give some outlines or just some updates or some some
目前對委內瑞拉機會不是很感興趣。但我想當他們報告財報時，也許我們會聽到更多，也許他們會給出一些大綱或一些更新或一些
economic kind of forecast. I think at the very least there will be analyst questions about it because it's a big, you know, potential factor for Chevron >> and it actually really plays into what
經濟預測。我想至少會有分析師問到這個問題，因為這是雪佛龍的一個重大潛在因素，而且這實際上真的與
has been going on with Chevron's stock and also Exxons over the past year.
雪佛龍股票過去一年的表現以及埃克森的表現有關。
Chevron has been in the process of acquiring Hess, which was a big tricky acquisition that kind of weighed on their stock for a while. They sort of underperformed uh Exxon last year um
雪佛龍正在收購 Hess，這是一個大型複雜的收購，曾經拖累他們的股票一段時間。他們某種程度上去年表現不如埃克森
>> by a lot. Yeah, >> by a lot. And one of the big rationes for acquiring Hess is they have a big opportunity for oil extraction in uh
很多。是的，很多。收購 Hess 的一大理由是他們在
Guyana, which is what Chevron has kind of been talking about as their big opportunity, not Venezuela. So, it will be interesting to see how they put, you know, how they might weigh those two
圭亞那有很大的石油開採機會，這是雪佛龍一直在談論的大機會，不是委內瑞拉。所以，看看他們如何權衡這兩個
different opportunities. Exxon, meanwhile, their stock actually did pretty well in 2025, better than Chevron, and that's because they've really been putting pedal to the metal and doing lots of extraction with some
不同的機會會很有趣。埃克森，同時，他們的股票在 2025 年表現相當好，比雪佛龍好，那是因為他們一直在加大力度，用一些
of their US assets like in the Peran basin. And so despite the fact that oil prices were falling over the course of 2025, Exxon was really producing more
美國資產如 Peran 盆地大量開採。所以儘管 2025 年油價下跌，埃克森真的產量更多
and therefore kind of making more money and their stock did well. and an Exxon executive came out and said basically, you know, what Chevron was Chevron was kind of thinking about Venezuela in and
因此賺了更多錢，他們的股票表現很好。而且埃克森高管出來說的基本上是，你知道，雪佛龍當時在考慮委內瑞拉的事情，
they said it out loud, which is basically, you know, we're not really interested in Venezuela unless we can get stability and pricing to make sense for us.
他們大聲說出來了，基本上是，你知道，我們對委內瑞拉不是很感興趣，除非我們能得到穩定和對我們有意義的定價。
>> Uh it should be a pretty interesting couple of earnings reports. Um but let's not, you know, lose sight of what we've all been talking about forever and ever
這應該會是相當有趣的幾份財報。但讓我們不要，你知道，忽視我們在市場和財報方面一直以來在談論的事情
and ever around here when it comes to markets and earnings, and that's the big tech companies. You've got uh the first couple of the mag seven stocks. We've got Meta and Microsoft reporting, but
那就是大型科技公司。你有前幾個 mag seven 股票。我們有 Meta 和 Microsoft 報告，但
also I want to point out Seagate. Seagate is a company that crushed the market last year. They are one of these memory makers. And so, of course, with
我還想指出 Seagate。Seagate 是一家去年碾壓市場的公司。他們是這些記憶體製造商之一。所以，當然，
all the computing need that comes with AI, not just the data centers and the storage, but also the memory that helps the chips and you know, keeps everything flowing. and Seagate. What's interesting
AI 帶來的所有計算需求，不僅是數據中心和存儲，還有幫助晶片的記憶體，你知道，保持一切流暢。Seagate。有趣的是
about them, Dan Gallagher, our colleague over at Herd on the Street, wrote that Seagate and other memory makers have really benefited from the fact that there's a limited amount of of memory.
關於他們，我們在 Herd on the Street 的同事 Dan Gallagher 寫道，Seagate 和其他記憶體製造商真的受益於記憶體數量有限。
And one reason that these companies have been doing so well is that they're not in any rush to make a lot more. They've been through boom and bust cycles.
這些公司做得這麼好的一個原因是他們不急於製造更多。他們經歷過繁榮和蕭條週期。
>> They kind of control the supply of memory.
他們某種程度上控制著記憶體的供應。
>> Yes. And so interesting. >> They're not interested in necessarily leaning in to like, oh, we're just going to make tons more of these things because they they know that there are
是的。所以有趣的是。他們對必然大量生產這些東西不感興趣，因為他們知道這些週期還有其他
other sides to these cycles. And it's funny because I always think of Seagate as like the little hard drives that you plug into the side of your like those,
方面。有趣的是，因為我總是把 Seagate 看作是你插在側面的小硬碟那些，
you know, little consumer products, but that's not what they do anymore, right?
你知道，小型消費產品，但那不是他們現在做的了，對吧？
>> Old news. Old news with with those companies. It's all about this like big industrial scale uh AI opportunity. And Seagate stock is already up 25% in 2026.
過時了。那些公司過時了。這都是關於大型工業規模的 AI 機會。而且 Seagate 股票在 2026 年已經上漲了 25%。
We're like barely halfway through January. So, that's a company that I think people will be really focused on.
我們才剛過一月的一半。所以，這是一家我認為人們會真正關注的公司。
>> But I want to talk about Meta because we one of our colleagues had a story about how they were downsizing. They were firing some people in their metaverse
但我想談談 Meta，因為我們有同事有一個故事說他們在縮減規模。他們在他們的元宇宙
unit. And you know, remember that's the virtual reality unit which they, you know, created to great fanfare not too long ago, a few years ago.
部門裁員。你知道，記住那是虛擬實境部門，他們，你知道，幾年前大張旗鼓地創建的。
>> The Oculus helmet, these different worlds, there was avatar version of Mark Zuckerberg, right?
Oculus 頭盔，這些不同的世界，有馬克祖克柏的虛擬版本，對吧？
>> The vision for that like never really came to pass. Like it never really became a big deal. And so it kind of makes me think, you know, now they've
對那個的願景從來沒有真正實現。它從來沒有真正成為大事。所以這讓我想，你知道，現在他們已經
shifted all that focus to AI and to building out data centers. But like what is the AI proposition for Meta? You know, they're not a search engine per
把所有注意力轉移到 AI 和建設數據中心。但 Meta 的 AI 主張是什麼？你知道，他們不是
se. They have these platforms. How will AI be integrated into these platforms?
搜索引擎。他們有這些平臺。AI 將如何整合到這些平臺中？
How will it help drive the bottom line for Meta? And I think that sort of remains to be seen. And you know, you could kind of see that in terms of how
它將如何幫助推動 Meta 的底線？我認為那仍有待觀察。而且你知道，你可以從
the stocks perform too. It's actually not done so well uh over the past year.
股票表現中看出。它過去一年表現其實不太好。
>> Before we move on, I want to point out that Microsoft is also reporting this upcoming week. Microsoft is also in this phase of are they going to be a big
在我們繼續之前，我想指出 Microsoft 也在這週報告。Microsoft 也處於他們會不會成為 AI 大
winner from AI? Are they not? They're also like Facebook spending sorry like Meta now Meta spending tons of money on their AI bets. But the conversation around Microsoft is a little bit
贏家的階段？是或否？他們也像 Facebook 抱歉像 Meta 現在在他們的 AI 賭注上花了大量的錢。但圍繞 Microsoft 的對話有點
different because their core business or their existing their past exciting business cloud computing is doing really really well these days and they're making tons and tons of money and that's
不同，因為他們的核心業務或他們現有的令人興奮的業務雲計算這些天做得非常非常好，他們賺了很多很多錢，這
giving them a lot more profit and resources to allow them to to continue to >> a nice cushion that and permission from investors to do more experimentation I guess
給了他們更多的利潤和資源，讓他們能夠繼續，一個好的緩衝，來自投資者的許可去做更多實驗我想
>> right so in this discussion of what software companies because really we're talking about software at the end of the day whether it's online or lives on your
對吧，所以在這個關於哪些軟體公司的討論中，因為說到底我們在談論的是軟體，無論是在線還是在你的
computer or in the cloud. Um, which of those will be hyperscalers, i.e.
電腦或雲端。哪些會成為超大規模公司，即
companies that are experiencing just like tremendous growth rates, you know, 50% 100% growth rates or are they >> powered by AI?
經歷巨大增長率的公司，你知道，50%、100% 的增長率，還是他們由 AI 驅動？
>> Powered by AI, or are they just going to be a company that's really good and profitable, but not quite growing at that level? And I think this will be a critical year.
由 AI 驅動，還是他們只是一家真的很好很盈利的公司，但增長率沒那麼高？我認為這將是關鍵的一年。
>> Uh, and and the the the first earnings report of the year will be really important for both Microsoft and Meta to kind of set the tone. And while we do
而且今年的第一份財報對 Microsoft 和 Meta 設定基調都非常重要。當我們確實
have all these big and important earnings reports, they could all be overshadowed again because, you know, this past week we had so much macro news that like nobody paid attention to
有所有這些大型重要的財報時，它們可能再次被蓋過，因為，你知道，過去一週我們有太多宏觀新聞，沒人注意
anything else. Um, you know, we had the World Economic Forum with uh where Trump made a speech. Um, and leading up to that, he had, you know, threatened to
其他任何事情。你知道，我們有世界經濟論壇，川普在那裡發表了演講。在那之前，他，你知道，威脅要
impose all of these tariffs on uh the European countries that were standing in his way when it came to Greenland. Trump wants the US to take over Greenland because it has, you know, important
對歐洲國家徵收所有這些關稅，因為它們阻礙他獲得格陵蘭。川普希望美國接管格陵蘭，因為它有，你知道，重要的
natural resources that he wants, you know, the US to have exclusive access to. And this was leading to a very uncomfortable situation with some of our biggest allies leading up to his speech
自然資源，他希望美國獨家獲得。這導致了在他在達沃斯演講之前與我們一些最大的盟友之間非常不舒服的局面。
at Davos. Um, but then all of a sudden on Wednesday, he said he was backing down on the tariffs.
但然後週三突然，他說他在關稅問題上退讓了。
>> We talked about this uh on the previous episode with Monica talking about policy and policy volatility and geopolitics and all of that. And we talked about is
我們在上一集和 Monica 談過這個，談政策和政策波動性和地緣政治等等。我們談到是
this the return of the sell America trade? Well, we saw that trade rear its head, right? And what is the sell America trade? Well, I guess I would
這是「賣出美國」交易的回歸嗎？好吧，我們看到那個交易出現了，對吧？什麼是「賣出美國」交易？好吧，我想我會
define it by selling US stocks, selling US bonds, buying gold, buying stocks or bonds in other countries.
定義它為賣出美國股票、賣出美國債券、買黃金、買其他國家的股票或債券。
>> We saw the return of that early in the week when it looked like, you know, Trump was about to essentially blow up NATO uh in order to get control of
我們在本週早些時候看到那種交易回歸，當時看起來川普即將基本上炸毀北約以獲得
Greenland. once it's was clear that he was looking for a deal, right? And obviously we'll see how these things play out. There's lots of twists and turns. You know, that backed off a
格陵蘭的控制權。一旦清楚他在尋找交易，對吧？顯然我們會看看這些事情如何發展。有很多曲折。你知道，那退了一
little bit. You also meanwhile had what was going on in the Japanese bond market where Japanese long-term bonds were plunging in value, yields were rising as what people were saying were kind of the
點。同時你也有日本債券市場發生的事情，日本長期債券價值暴跌，收益率上升，人們說這是
global bond vigilantes really looking at Japan's fiscal situation and saying we don't want to own Japanese debt for the long term. So that raises two interesting points and and really the
全球債券警惕者真的在看日本的財政狀況，說我們不想長期持有日本債務。這引出了兩個有趣的點，而
focus of them is the bond market, right?
它們的焦點是債券市場，對吧？
One is do people want to be long the prospects of the United States for the long-term future, right? Do do they want to fund all the things that we want to
一是人們是否想長期看好美國的前景，對吧？他們是否想為我們想要
spend on whether that's defense uh or otherwise? And also, are there bond vigilantes out there that are really activated about, you know, the long-term debts of the the biggest countries in
花的所有東西提供資金，無論是國防還是其他？而且，是否有債券警惕者真的在關注，你知道，世界上最大國家的長期債務
the world? I want to pause here for a second because when we talk about like the sell America trade and we talk about the importance of micro versus macro,
？我想在這裡暫停一下，因為當我們談論像「賣出美國」交易和我們談論微觀與宏觀的重要性時，
one thing that we on this show are trying to keep in mind is how individual investors might navigate these things.
這個節目我們試圖記住的一件事是個人投資者如何駕馭這些事情。
Do people make big picture decisions in their portfolio that do they switch between being overweight stocks or overweight bonds? Do they buy and sell individual stocks to express these
人們會在他們的投資組合中做出大局決定嗎？他們會在超配股票或超配債券之間切換嗎？他們會買賣個別股票來表達這些
views? Right? like if there's a tariff threat on a certain industry, pharmaceuticals, do they sell pharmaceutical companies and buy some other industry or are people really just sticking with their index funds and
觀點嗎？對吧？比如如果對某個行業有關稅威脅，製藥，他們會賣掉製藥公司並買其他行業嗎，還是人們真的只是堅持他們的指數基金和
maybe buying the index of another country? Right? We've talked a lot about people investing overseas. So, I would really like if people from our audience could come up with some questions or
也許買另一個國家的指數？對吧？我們談了很多關於人們在海外投資的事。所以，我真的想要如果我們觀眾中的人能提出一些問題或
talk to us about how they navigate these big macro situations. We want to hear from you.
和我們談談他們如何駕馭這些大宏觀情況。我們想聽到你的聲音。
>> Yeah, we want to hear from you. We we want to make this show relevant to the way that you invest and think about these things because, you know, we talk
是的，我們想聽到你的聲音。我們想讓這個節目與你投資和思考這些事情的方式相關，因為，你知道，我們
to big-time money managers and things like that who basically have to make moves sometimes, but but if you're, you know, an everyday investor, you don't have to do anything. You could just sit
和大型資金管理者等交談，他們基本上有時必須採取行動，但如果你，你知道，是一個普通投資者，你不必做任何事情。你可以只是坐
tight. You could express your views in any number of ways.
著不動。你可以用任何方式表達你的觀點。
>> And what we don't know is, are you buying individual stocks? Are you buying ETFs? Are you just kind of setting it and forgetting it and listening to our
我們不知道的是，你是否買個別股票？你是否買 ETF？你是否只是設定好然後忘記它，聽我們的
voices and saying, "hm, that's nice." Um, we'd love to know how you're putting this advice into action.
聲音然後說：「嗯，不錯。」我們很想知道你是如何把這些建議付諸行動的。
>> Yeah. So, if you're uh looking at this on, you know, YouTube, you can leave something in the comments, Spotify, other platforms. You can also send us an
是的。所以，如果你在，你知道，YouTube 上看這個，你可以在評論中留言，Spotify，其他平臺。你也可以給我們發
email, take on the week at wsj.com. And, you know, ask us questions, give us feedback about how we talk about these things, tell us how you think about
郵件，take on the week at wsj.com。而且，你知道，問我們問題，給我們反饋關於我們如何談論這些事情，告訴我們你如何
them. We really want to make your approach and the way you think about these investments a key part of the show and really have a try and have a
思考它們。我們真的想讓你的方法和你思考這些投資的方式成為節目的關鍵部分，真的嘗試進行一場
conversation going uh with with with the audience because that's we sit around all day talking about what would be relevant to people. Well, the best way
與觀眾的對話，因為那就是我們整天坐著討論什麼會與人們相關。好吧，最好的
to find out is to actually ask them. So, send us a note, drop a comment. We'd love to see it.
方法是真的去問他們。所以，給我們發消息，留下評論。我們很想看到。
>> We have um some pending Supreme Court decisions. We had hearings um this past week um from the Supreme Court about uh Lisa Cook uh the Fed governor who Trump
我們有一些待定的最高法院決定。上週我們有最高法院關於 Lisa Cook 的聽證會，川普想解僱的聯準會理事
is trying to fire and on whether he has the authority to do so and the justices seemed skeptical of his authority uh to do that. that you know that's a big
以及他是否有權這樣做，法官似乎對他的權力持懷疑態度。這是一個
question that will relate a lot to the question of Fed Federal Reserve independence >> which is a big part of that sell America sort of >> totally feeding into that um and could
大問題，將與聯準會獨立性的問題密切相關，這是「賣出美國」那種的重要部分。完全融入那個，可能
you know be showing up in the bond markets if people really get the sense that you know the Federal Reserve's independence is at risk and that is why
你知道在債券市場中表現出來，如果人們真的感覺到聯準會的獨立性面臨風險，這就是為什麼
we decided to speak with Greg Peters he's the co-CIO for public fixed income at PIM which is the asset management arm of insurance giant Credential Financial and he's kind of a bond expert.
我們決定與 Greg Peters 交談，他是 PIM 的公共固定收益聯合首席投資官，那是保險巨頭 Credential Financial 的資產管理部門，他是一位債券專家。
>> Yeah, I think this is an important conversation because those public markets which include, you know, corporate bonds, uh, government bonds, leverage loans for highly indebted companies, that's where I think a lot of
是的，我認為這是一場重要的對話，因為那些公共市場，包括，你知道，企業債券，政府債券，高負債公司的槓桿貸款，我認為那是很多
the action might really be this year. And it's not just what we were talking about with, you know, big picture about Fed independence. We're also talking about this AI financing wave. I think
今年真正行動可能發生的地方。這不僅僅是我們談論的，你知道，關於聯準會獨立性的大局。我們還在談論這個 AI 融資浪潮。我認為
that's a hugely important market for 2026. >> Definitely. But I just want to note before we hear that that we spoke with Greg before President Trump gave his
那是 2026 年一個非常重要的市場。肯定的。但我只想在我們聽到之前指出，我們在川普總統在達沃斯發表
speech in Davos and before he reversed the tariffs on Europe that he had threatened earlier. So some of this is from an earlier time.
演講之前以及他撤回之前威脅歐洲的關稅之前和 Greg 交談的。所以其中一些是來自更早的時候。
>> It's hard to line these things up.
很難把這些事情排列起來。
They're all they're all so fluid. Uh well, it's a great conversation and we're going to have that after the break.
它們都非常流動。嗯好吧，這是一場很棒的對話，廣告後我們將進行那個對話。
>> Welcome Greg and thanks so much for joining us.
歡迎 Greg，非常感謝你加入我們。
>> Thanks for having me. The next FOMC meeting is this coming week and market expectations are pretty heavily weighted toward no change. Do you agree with
感謝邀請。下次 FOMC 會議是下週，市場預期相當傾向於不變。你同意
that? Um, and if so, what do you think will be the thing that causes the Fed to ultimately make a change?
嗎？如果是，你認為是什麼會導致聯準會最終做出改變？
>> I do agree with that. Uh, that's been pre-baked and I think that was cemented even more given the news flow um around the DOJ investigation. Um, and
我同意。那已經預先定價了，我認為那甚至更鞏固了，考慮到 DOJ 調查的消息流。
>> and that's the DOJ investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
那是 DOJ 對聯準會主席 Jerome Powell 的調查。
>> Yes. and the Fed broadly. Yes. So, um you know, I think that um rightly or wrongly uh the market, you know, priced out any scoch of um of cut uh based on
是的。以及更廣泛的聯準會。是的。所以，你知道，我認為不管對錯，市場，你知道，根據那個定價出了任何降息的可能性
that. That's how the market interpreted it. Uh whether that's right or wrong, I don't know. Uh but just put that on the side. I know it's really hard to do
那就是市場的解讀。這是對是錯，我不知道。但把那放在一邊。我知道那很難做到
that, but uh the data itself um doesn't really support um any cut at this point in time, right? you have uh uh you know growth that's actually quite robust. Uh
但數據本身目前並不真的支持任何降息，對吧？你有增長實際上相當強勁。
you have inflation at least per the latest reading uh you know coming down.
你有通脹，至少根據最新讀數，你知道在下降。
Um and um you know I think the Fed rightfully uh is in wait and see mode and that's what the market's pricing in.
我認為聯準會正確地處於觀望模式，這就是市場定價的。
So, you already mentioned the um DOJ investigation. That's obviously brought up renewed worries about Fed independence, but yet the market hasn't really reacted in a major way to it or
所以，你已經提到了 DOJ 調查。那顯然引發了對聯準會獨立性的新擔憂，但市場對此沒有以重大方式反應或
at least in a lasting way. What do you think it will take to get the market to believe that something, you know, has happened that puts the Fed's independence at risk?
至少沒有持久的方式。你認為需要什麼才能讓市場相信發生了什麼事情，你知道，讓聯準會的獨立性面臨風險？
>> That's right. I think it's important to remember that independence isn't a binary function, right? It's a across a continuum. Um and the market read last week once again rightly or wrongly was
那是對的。我認為重要的是要記住獨立性不是一個二元函數，對吧？它是一個連續體。而市場上週的解讀，再次不管對錯
that was an overstep. Uh and in fact that that almost cemented uh uh the the independence piece of it, right? You saw both sides of the aisle, you know, kind
是那是一個越界。而事實上那幾乎鞏固了獨立性的部分，對吧？你看到兩黨都，你知道，
of speak out against it. Uh and so the market interpreted that particular event as as a perverse positive in a way. Uh in part >> because you saw the push back. you you
反對它。所以市場把那個特定事件解讀為某種意義上的反向積極。部分原因是因為你看到了反擊。你
saw the push back um um and the markets interpreted that as saving independence, whatever that means. So um that's why the market didn't react.
看到了反擊，市場把那解讀為拯救了獨立性，不管那意味著什麼。所以那就是為什麼市場沒有反應。
>> We learned in December that the economy grew by a stronger than expected annual rate of 4.3%.
我們在十二月得知經濟以超出預期的 4.3% 年率增長。
And AI spending was a really big component of that. Um and it seems like it's going to continue to be a major driver of that. But how sustainable do
AI 支出是其中一個非常大的組成部分。似乎它將繼續成為一個主要驅動力。但你
you think that is over the long run?
認為那在長期內有多可持續？
>> I think it's sustainable for quite some time. And what I mean by quite some time uh the next uh you know 24 months. Um so
我認為它在相當長一段時間內是可持續的。我說的相當長一段時間是接下來的 24 個月。所以
if you look at uh the AI spend and the impact on GDP growth uh we accounted that AI spend to be about a third of the growth in the first half of last year
如果你看 AI 支出和對 GDP 增長的影響，我們計算 AI 支出在去年上半年約佔增長的三分之一
and about half uh uh in the second half of last year. Um and so this has been a a a clear driver of the economy. But the real question is will it drive productivity?
在去年下半年約佔一半。所以這一直是經濟的明確驅動力。但真正的問題是它會推動生產力嗎？
uh and we are seeing signs of uh improved productivity. I think that's in part why you're seeing the labor market being so anemic uh as you know corporates are really kind of thinking
我們正在看到生產力改善的跡象。我認為這部分是為什麼你看到勞動力市場如此疲軟，因為你知道公司真的在思考
through their labor profile in the face of you know AI.
面對 AI 他們的勞動力結構。
>> They don't want to hire a bunch in advance of these expected savings exactly later on. But couldn't we also have um you know the productivity gains never materialize and people realize oh
他們不想在這些預期的節省之前提前大量招聘。但我們不也可能生產力收益永遠不會實現，人們意識到哦
maybe we do have to go back to hiring >> you could I mean all these things are possible uh um >> I think it's a low probability quite
也許我們確實要回去招聘。你可以，我是說所有這些都有可能。我認為這是相當低的概率
honest uh the question is how big will the turn of productivity be will it be 50 basis points 100 basis points >> you know two basis points right so um
老實說，問題是生產力的回報會有多大，會是 50 個基點，100 個基點
>> uh but it matters you know getting to a different growth growth plane through productivity uh is crucial not only from a debt sustainability standpoint as you can kind of classically help grow your
你知道兩個基點對吧，所以。但這很重要，你知道，通過生產力達到不同的增長平臺對於不僅從債務可持續性的角度來說是至關重要的，因為你可以經典地幫助通過增長來
way out of the debt problem. Uh hope does spring internal um but it also just allows you know corporates to do better uh but the impact on labor um is very
擺脫債務問題。希望確實是永恆的，但它也只是讓公司做得更好，但對勞動力的影響是非常
much an open question. Mhm. Speaking of AI, you guys have um I think raised a fund related to investing in data centers. Um and obviously data centers are a huge you know investment um
開放的問題。說到 AI，你們有我認為與投資數據中心相關的基金。顯然數據中心是一個巨大的投資
opportunity. How does Pum think about investing in data centers and have you participated in any of the big recent financings?
機會。Pum 如何看待投資數據中心，你們有沒有參與最近的大型融資？
>> Yeah, so I think the first um thing to mention is there's just so much debt.
是的，我認為首先要提到的是有太多債務。
There's so much that has to be financed here over the next 24 months. It's it's eyepopping. Um, you know, the latest estimate is on the order of 5.3 trillion.
在接下來 24 個月內有太多需要融資的東西。這令人瞠目結舌。最新的估計是大約 5.3 兆美元。
>> Wow. >> Um, and that's debt that has to hit the marketplace for the most part. About 1 and a half trillion will be financed through free cash flow, the hyperscalers. So, it leaves,
哇。那是大部分必須進入市場的債務。大約 1.5 兆將通過超大規模公司的自由現金流融資。所以，剩下的，
>> you know, basically 4 trillion that has to hit the uh, you know, the bond market. So there's going to be this massive supply wave to finance.
你知道，基本上 4 兆必須進入債券市場。所以會有這個大規模的供應浪潮需要融資。
>> I think investors have to be quite careful here.
我認為投資者在這裡必須非常小心。
>> Um um and we are quite careful. The way we're thinking about it from an investment standpoint is through the construction financing side.
我們非常謹慎。我們從投資角度考慮的方式是通過建設融資方面。
>> Okay. >> Um ultimately it's just called a fancy construction loan. Uh uh uh but we like the collateral. We like the back stop >> and the collateral is the data center
好的。最終它只是被稱為高級建設貸款。但我們喜歡抵押品。我們喜歡後盾，而抵押品就是數據中心
itself. Collateral is the data center uh andor the leases.
本身。抵押品是數據中心或租賃。
>> Okay. >> Um and uh it's much shorter tenor in nature. Uh so you're not making this play for 10 years, 20 years, 30 years.
好的。而且它的期限要短得多。所以你不是在做這個 10 年、20 年、30 年的賭注。
What has really been eye popping and headscratching for me is in the investment grade corporate market that these hyperscalers have come to the market in unsecured way for long-term
真正令人瞠目結舌和困惑的是在投資級企業市場，這些超大規模公司以無擔保方式進入市場尋求長期
debt. Um and you know just given how much we don't know and I would submit that 40 years is a very long time.
債務。而且你知道，考慮到我們不知道的有多少，我會說 40 年是很長的時間。
>> So what are we talking about in terms of your preferred time horizon?
那麼我們談論的你偏好的時間範圍是什麼？
>> Well it's you know five years in in I say um um and you know the question is how involved will we be a year from now?
好吧是，你知道，五年內，問題是一年後我們會有多參與？
My guess is a lot less involved. So, we see this opportunity today, but I'm not convinced there'll be a massive opportunity 12, 24 months from now as it
我猜會少很多。所以，我們今天看到這個機會，但我不確信 12、24 個月後會有大規模的機會，因為
all has to be refinanced too, right? So, um that's the first thing. There's this massive refinancing that has to occur.
所有這些也必須再融資，對吧？所以，那是第一件事。有這個大規模的再融資必須發生。
Um and then the useful life of the chips and the racks themselves are an open question. Um, and it's really hard to get a return on invested capital when
然後晶片和機架本身的使用壽命是一個開放的問題。而且，當
you constantly have to, you know, reinvest in such an expensive way um in uh in the chip piece of it. So that's what worries me.
你不斷需要以如此昂貴的方式在晶片部分重新投資時，真的很難獲得投資資本的回報。所以那是我擔心的。
>> What is the biggest risk in your mind um on when you're looking at data center investments?
當你看數據中心投資時，你心目中最大的風險是什麼？
If you listen to the hyperscalers themselves, they believe that it's essentially a winner take all environment. As an investor, particularly as a bond investor, if you invest across, you know, the different hyperscalers, you're
如果你聽超大規模公司自己說，他們相信這基本上是一個贏者通吃的環境。作為投資者，特別是作為債券投資者，如果你投資
definitionally, if you take their words at face value, investing in six that are not going to make it, >> one winner and five losers or six or or however it is.
不同的超大規模公司，如果你接受他們的話，你在定義上投資了六個不會成功的，一個贏家和五個輸家或六個或不管是幾個。
>> Exactly. Right. So that is that is just the inherent problem uh from a debt investing side. Um that's why I think it's so important to have a good
正是如此。對。所以那就是從債務投資角度的固有問題。這就是為什麼我認為有良好的
structure to have good collateral to do whatever you can to mitigate that downside. Um but I see that as the biggest risk. uh just definitionally not everyone can win and the markets are
結構、好的抵押品、盡你所能來減輕那種下行風險是如此重要。但我把那看作是最大的風險。定義上不是每個人都能贏，而市場
feeding them all hoping for one. >> So um Pim last year merged its public fixed income and its private credit investing teams and I write a lot about private credit so I'm interested in
在餵養他們所有人希望一個人贏。所以 Pim 去年合併了它的公共固定收益和私人信貸投資團隊，我寫了很多關於私人信貸的文章，所以我對
this. You've said that, you know, you think the lines between public and private credit are blurring and that there's this sort of convergence happening, but what is like what does
這個很感興趣。你說過，你知道，你認為公共和私人信貸之間的界限正在模糊，有這種融合正在發生，但什麼是像什麼
that mean as an investor and what does that mean in terms of in practice in terms of how you allocate?
意味著作為投資者，這在實踐中在分配方面意味著什麼？
>> Yeah. So, I'm really excited about this.
是的。所以，我對這個非常興奮。
I I I've been working on this um almost exclusively for the past nine months and you know building out an investment process around public and privates. Um
過去九個月我幾乎專門在做這件事，你知道建立一個關於公共和私人的投資流程。
the way I think about it uh is in very simple terms. Um investors um who think about their asset allocation in a siloed way miss the relative value
我對它的思考方式是非常簡單的術語。以孤立方式思考資產配置的投資者會錯過相對價值
opportunities. And what I mean by that is if you know I'm a pension fund and and have a direct allocation into middle market direct lending >> that's making loans to mid-size
機會。我的意思是，如果你知道我是一個養老基金，直接配置在中等市場直接借貸，那是向中型
businesses. Yeah. I'm in that whether it's a good environment or a bad environment. Um that's my allocation >> because I've said this is going to be my allocation and I'm stuck.
企業提供貸款。是的。我在那裡，不管是好環境還是壞環境。那是我的配置，因為我說過這將是我的配置然後我就被困住了。
>> Yeah. >> Yeah. Um but if you have a manager who has capabilities in middle market direct lending um and real estate uh you know debt financing and public fixed income
是的。是的。但如果你有一個在中等市場直接借貸和房地產債務融資和公共固定收益方面都有能力的經理
uh then they can allocate uh uh for you so to speak and take advantage of those dislocations.
那他們可以為你分配，可以說，並利用那些錯位。
>> So does that just mean more dynamic investing?
那這只是意味著更動態的投資嗎？
>> It does. That's exactly what it means.
是的。那正是它的意思。
Uh and portfolio theory is simple in a way that you know the more levers that you have to pull um then the better ability to create alpha and that's what
而且投資組合理論在某種程度上很簡單，就是你知道你可以拉動的槓桿越多，創造 alpha 的能力就越好，這是
we endeavor to do. And so I look at the world uh changing not so much around this demarcation of public and private >> but around the continuum of liquidity. M
我們努力做的。所以我看待世界變化的方式不是圍繞公共和私人的這種劃分，而是圍繞流動性的連續體。
>> um and you know there's there's securities in public fixed income that are not necessarily liquid that are in the quoteunquote liquid bucket, >> right? Just because they're public.
而且你知道有公共固定收益中的證券不一定是流動的，卻在所謂的流動性桶中，對吧？只是因為它們是公開的。
>> Yeah. Uh and you know smaller high yield bonds or lever loans is a great example of that. Um and so I think investors will look at it across that liquidity
是的。而且你知道較小的高收益債券或槓桿貸款是一個很好的例子。所以我認為投資者會跨越那個流動性
continuum and this total portfolio approach uh lens more than just this demarcation madeup demarcation of this is public this is private this goes here that goes there and they should never
連續體和這種整體投資組合方法的視角，而不是只是這種虛構的公共是這個、私人是那個、這個放這裡、那個放那裡、它們永遠不應該
meet. So I I I see the world changing >> and some of the private credit players are trying to create more liquidity in the private markets as well.
相遇的劃分。所以我看到世界在變化，而且一些私人信貸玩家也在嘗試在私人市場創造更多流動性。
Absolutely. And I think that's just going to uh hasten the change. Um as a lot of investors moved into private credit the past, you know, five years because of the illquidity, right? Right.
絕對。而且我認為這只會加速變化。因為過去五年很多投資者進入私人信貸是因為非流動性，對吧？對。
It was, you know, >> I can get paid a premium for this illquidity, right?
這是，你知道，我可以為這種非流動性獲得溢價，對吧？
>> Yeah. The infinite sharp ratio, right? If if your security isn't marked, then there's no volatility and you know, you just have, you know, any return that you
是的。無限夏普比率，對吧？如果你的證券沒有被標記，那就沒有波動性，你知道，你只有，你知道，你有的任何回報
have is is a great sharp. Basically, >> with a public security, the it's priced minute by minute and you see the the price change and your, you know, your
都是很好的夏普。基本上，對於公開證券，它每分每秒都被定價，你看到價格變化，你的，你知道，你的
holdings could be worth a lot less at the end of the day. With a private security, it might you might go for months without a change.
持有量在一天結束時可能價值少很多。對於私人證券，你可能幾個月都沒有變化。
>> 100%. And >> and like I'm very influenced by my own career, which is going back uh uh when I was in the high yield bond market um and then the lever loan market
100%。而且我受到我自己職業生涯的很大影響，回溯到當我在高收益債券市場時，然後槓桿貸款市場
came about um and it was categorized the same exact way as private credit. It was um senior to cap structure uh it was better covenants uh and it had better
出現了，它被以與私人信貸完全相同的方式分類。它是資本結構的高級部分，它有更好的契約，它有更好的
sharp ratios because it wasn't marked nearly as much. Um, and what we saw happen over time is that the high yield bond market and the lever loan market
夏普比率因為它沒有被標記那麼多。而且，我們看到隨著時間推移發生的是高收益債券市場和槓桿貸款市場
essentially is the same market. Um, and investors conduct that relative value across loans um, and and bonds quite freely. So, we've seen this movie before. I think it's poised to happen
基本上是同一個市場。而且，投資者在貸款和債券之間相當自由地進行相對價值。所以，我們以前見過這部電影。我認為它即將再次發生
again. And loans weren't even securities. And that was more tricky than you thought it would be. Um so I think it's inevitable. And then last point is it's happening whether you like
。而且貸款甚至不是證券。而且那比你想的更棘手。所以我認為這是不可避免的。然後最後一點是它正在發生，不管你喜不喜歡
it or not. So in our portfolios uh we are being refinanced out of our public bonds into private securities and vice versa. And so it's it's it's a question of pace, not what if.
。所以在我們的投資組合中，我們正被從公共債券再融資到私人證券，反之亦然。所以這是一個節奏問題，不是如果的問題。
>> And the ability to be nimble and to be able to own all different kinds of things, I guess.
而且能夠靈活並且能夠擁有各種不同的東西，我想。
>> Absolutely. >> Yeah. We're going to take a quick break.
絕對。是的。我們要快速休息一下。
When we come back, we'll have one more question for Greg Peters of PIM.
回來後，我們還有一個問題要問 PIM 的 Greg Peters。
In 30 seconds or less, what's your biggest concern as an investor as you look out over the next 12 months?
在 30 秒或更短時間內，作為投資者，你在展望未來 12 個月時最大的擔憂是什麼？
>> My biggest concern over the next 12 months um is the overheating concern. Uh you know, we have a situation where, you know, GDP growth is picking up. We have
我未來 12 個月最大的擔憂是過熱的擔憂。你知道，我們有一個情況，GDP 增長正在加速。我們有
a tremendous amount of fiscal stimulus coming through. We have lower energy prices. We have a push towards deregulation.
大量的財政刺激正在通過。我們有較低的能源價格。我們有推動放鬆管制。
Uh you have the prospects of lower um interest rates as well, at least on the front end. Uh and that could push us um into this overheating higher inflationary environment. Um, and what
你有較低利率的前景，至少在短期端。而且那可能把我們推入這種過熱的高通脹環境。而且
worries me more than anything else is uh the uh upsurge in inflation as we saw that story play out before. Uh, and there's nowhere really to hide from that.
比其他任何事情更讓我擔心的是通脹的上升，因為我們以前見過那個故事。而且，那裡真的無處可躲。
>> Thanks so much. >> Thank you. I dare them to do this and not swing around on the chair. Like it's like make it casual. Don't Don't you dare move.
非常感謝。謝謝你。我挑戰他們做這個時不要在椅子上搖晃。就像讓它隨意一點。不許動。
>> I know a little bit. Stay absolutely still.
我知道有點。絕對不要動。
>> Okay. >> Don't use your hands. Don't talk with your hands.
好的。不要用手。不要用手說話。
點擊句子跳轉到對應位置
There's just so much debt. There's so much that has to be financed here over the next 24 months. It's it's eyepopping. Um, you know, the latest estimate is on the order of 5.3 trillion.
有太多債務了。在接下來 24 個月內有太多需要融資的東西。這令人瞠目結舌。最新的估計是大約 5.3 兆美元。
>> Wow. >> So, Miriam, >> yes. Tell us.
哇。那麼，Miriam，是的。告訴我們。
>> Another week, another week to take on >> uh here at WSJ's Take on the Week and >> it's a doozy earnings-wise. We're really in the meat of earning season and so
又一週，又一週的《華爾街日報》週報，這是財報季的關鍵時期。我們真的處於財報季的核心，所以
we've got reports from big names across a bunch of different industries. What's a report that you're looking forward to this week?
我們有來自一堆不同行業的大公司的報告。你這週期待的報告是什麼？
>> I'm looking at Chevron and Exxon um two of the oil majors because of what's been happening in Venezuela. Um, you know, the US has basically taken control of
我在看雪佛龍和埃克森，兩家石油巨頭，因為委內瑞拉發生的事情。你知道，美國基本上已經控制了
Venezuelan oil production and in theory at least, Chevron is the oil major that stands to benefit the most because it already has a presence in Venezuela and
委內瑞拉的石油生產，理論上至少，雪佛龍是最有可能受益的石油巨頭，因為它已經在委內瑞拉有業務，
it wants to have access to that oil. But Chevron has also said it's not ready to just go barreling in, no pun intended, to Venezuela because it needs a few
它想要獲得那些石油。但雪佛龍也表示它還沒準備好就這樣衝進委內瑞拉，無意雙關，因為它需要一些
assurances. First, one is that the government will be stable, which we're not quite to that point yet. And the other is that um oil prices will be high enough that it makes sense economically
保證。首先，一是政府要穩定，我們還沒完全到那一步。另一個是石油價格要高到在經濟上有意義
to invest there. >> Yeah. There seems to be this weird tension where the the point of it is to lower oil prices, right?
才在那裡投資。是的。似乎有這種奇怪的緊張關係，目的是降低油價，對吧？
>> Yeah. Trump has said $50 a barrel is where he wants oil to be, but Chevron's like, "Well, that's not high enough for to make it worth our while."
是的。川普說 50 美元一桶是他想要的油價，但雪佛龍說：「好吧，那還不夠高，不值得我們投入。」
>> Yeah. And I know that there's complexities in the pricing of oil. you know, a barrel here is not necessarily the same price as a barrel there, and it
是的。我知道石油定價有複雜性。你知道，這裡一桶不一定是那裡一桶的價格，這
has to do with the the types of of refining facilities that are in the US Gulf and things like that. But it just overall doesn't seem like Chevron is
與美國墨西哥灣的煉油設施類型等有關。但整體來說，雪佛龍似乎
super keen on this Venezuela opportunity at the moment. But I guess when they report earnings, maybe we'll hear more about maybe they'll give some outlines or just some updates or some some
目前對委內瑞拉機會不是很感興趣。但我想當他們報告財報時，也許我們會聽到更多，也許他們會給出一些大綱或一些更新或一些
economic kind of forecast. I think at the very least there will be analyst questions about it because it's a big, you know, potential factor for Chevron >> and it actually really plays into what
經濟預測。我想至少會有分析師問到這個問題，因為這是雪佛龍的一個重大潛在因素，而且這實際上真的與
has been going on with Chevron's stock and also Exxons over the past year.
雪佛龍股票過去一年的表現以及埃克森的表現有關。
Chevron has been in the process of acquiring Hess, which was a big tricky acquisition that kind of weighed on their stock for a while. They sort of underperformed uh Exxon last year um
雪佛龍正在收購 Hess，這是一個大型複雜的收購，曾經拖累他們的股票一段時間。他們某種程度上去年表現不如埃克森
>> by a lot. Yeah, >> by a lot. And one of the big rationes for acquiring Hess is they have a big opportunity for oil extraction in uh
很多。是的，很多。收購 Hess 的一大理由是他們在
Guyana, which is what Chevron has kind of been talking about as their big opportunity, not Venezuela. So, it will be interesting to see how they put, you know, how they might weigh those two
圭亞那有很大的石油開採機會，這是雪佛龍一直在談論的大機會，不是委內瑞拉。所以，看看他們如何權衡這兩個
different opportunities. Exxon, meanwhile, their stock actually did pretty well in 2025, better than Chevron, and that's because they've really been putting pedal to the metal and doing lots of extraction with some
不同的機會會很有趣。埃克森，同時，他們的股票在 2025 年表現相當好，比雪佛龍好，那是因為他們一直在加大力度，用一些
of their US assets like in the Peran basin. And so despite the fact that oil prices were falling over the course of 2025, Exxon was really producing more
美國資產如 Peran 盆地大量開採。所以儘管 2025 年油價下跌，埃克森真的產量更多
and therefore kind of making more money and their stock did well. and an Exxon executive came out and said basically, you know, what Chevron was Chevron was kind of thinking about Venezuela in and
因此賺了更多錢，他們的股票表現很好。而且埃克森高管出來說的基本上是，你知道，雪佛龍當時在考慮委內瑞拉的事情，
they said it out loud, which is basically, you know, we're not really interested in Venezuela unless we can get stability and pricing to make sense for us.
他們大聲說出來了，基本上是，你知道，我們對委內瑞拉不是很感興趣，除非我們能得到穩定和對我們有意義的定價。
>> Uh it should be a pretty interesting couple of earnings reports. Um but let's not, you know, lose sight of what we've all been talking about forever and ever
這應該會是相當有趣的幾份財報。但讓我們不要，你知道，忽視我們在市場和財報方面一直以來在談論的事情
and ever around here when it comes to markets and earnings, and that's the big tech companies. You've got uh the first couple of the mag seven stocks. We've got Meta and Microsoft reporting, but
那就是大型科技公司。你有前幾個 mag seven 股票。我們有 Meta 和 Microsoft 報告，但
also I want to point out Seagate. Seagate is a company that crushed the market last year. They are one of these memory makers. And so, of course, with
我還想指出 Seagate。Seagate 是一家去年碾壓市場的公司。他們是這些記憶體製造商之一。所以，當然，
all the computing need that comes with AI, not just the data centers and the storage, but also the memory that helps the chips and you know, keeps everything flowing. and Seagate. What's interesting
AI 帶來的所有計算需求，不僅是數據中心和存儲，還有幫助晶片的記憶體，你知道，保持一切流暢。Seagate。有趣的是
about them, Dan Gallagher, our colleague over at Herd on the Street, wrote that Seagate and other memory makers have really benefited from the fact that there's a limited amount of of memory.
關於他們，我們在 Herd on the Street 的同事 Dan Gallagher 寫道，Seagate 和其他記憶體製造商真的受益於記憶體數量有限。
And one reason that these companies have been doing so well is that they're not in any rush to make a lot more. They've been through boom and bust cycles.
這些公司做得這麼好的一個原因是他們不急於製造更多。他們經歷過繁榮和蕭條週期。
>> They kind of control the supply of memory.
他們某種程度上控制著記憶體的供應。
>> Yes. And so interesting. >> They're not interested in necessarily leaning in to like, oh, we're just going to make tons more of these things because they they know that there are
是的。所以有趣的是。他們對必然大量生產這些東西不感興趣，因為他們知道這些週期還有其他
other sides to these cycles. And it's funny because I always think of Seagate as like the little hard drives that you plug into the side of your like those,
方面。有趣的是，因為我總是把 Seagate 看作是你插在側面的小硬碟那些，
you know, little consumer products, but that's not what they do anymore, right?
你知道，小型消費產品，但那不是他們現在做的了，對吧？
>> Old news. Old news with with those companies. It's all about this like big industrial scale uh AI opportunity. And Seagate stock is already up 25% in 2026.
過時了。那些公司過時了。這都是關於大型工業規模的 AI 機會。而且 Seagate 股票在 2026 年已經上漲了 25%。
We're like barely halfway through January. So, that's a company that I think people will be really focused on.
我們才剛過一月的一半。所以，這是一家我認為人們會真正關注的公司。
>> But I want to talk about Meta because we one of our colleagues had a story about how they were downsizing. They were firing some people in their metaverse
但我想談談 Meta，因為我們有同事有一個故事說他們在縮減規模。他們在他們的元宇宙
unit. And you know, remember that's the virtual reality unit which they, you know, created to great fanfare not too long ago, a few years ago.
部門裁員。你知道，記住那是虛擬實境部門，他們，你知道，幾年前大張旗鼓地創建的。
>> The Oculus helmet, these different worlds, there was avatar version of Mark Zuckerberg, right?
Oculus 頭盔，這些不同的世界，有馬克祖克柏的虛擬版本，對吧？
>> The vision for that like never really came to pass. Like it never really became a big deal. And so it kind of makes me think, you know, now they've
對那個的願景從來沒有真正實現。它從來沒有真正成為大事。所以這讓我想，你知道，現在他們已經
shifted all that focus to AI and to building out data centers. But like what is the AI proposition for Meta? You know, they're not a search engine per
把所有注意力轉移到 AI 和建設數據中心。但 Meta 的 AI 主張是什麼？你知道，他們不是
se. They have these platforms. How will AI be integrated into these platforms?
搜索引擎。他們有這些平臺。AI 將如何整合到這些平臺中？
How will it help drive the bottom line for Meta? And I think that sort of remains to be seen. And you know, you could kind of see that in terms of how
它將如何幫助推動 Meta 的底線？我認為那仍有待觀察。而且你知道，你可以從
the stocks perform too. It's actually not done so well uh over the past year.
股票表現中看出。它過去一年表現其實不太好。
>> Before we move on, I want to point out that Microsoft is also reporting this upcoming week. Microsoft is also in this phase of are they going to be a big
在我們繼續之前，我想指出 Microsoft 也在這週報告。Microsoft 也處於他們會不會成為 AI 大
winner from AI? Are they not? They're also like Facebook spending sorry like Meta now Meta spending tons of money on their AI bets. But the conversation around Microsoft is a little bit
贏家的階段？是或否？他們也像 Facebook 抱歉像 Meta 現在在他們的 AI 賭注上花了大量的錢。但圍繞 Microsoft 的對話有點
different because their core business or their existing their past exciting business cloud computing is doing really really well these days and they're making tons and tons of money and that's
不同，因為他們的核心業務或他們現有的令人興奮的業務雲計算這些天做得非常非常好，他們賺了很多很多錢，這
giving them a lot more profit and resources to allow them to to continue to >> a nice cushion that and permission from investors to do more experimentation I guess
給了他們更多的利潤和資源，讓他們能夠繼續，一個好的緩衝，來自投資者的許可去做更多實驗我想
>> right so in this discussion of what software companies because really we're talking about software at the end of the day whether it's online or lives on your
對吧，所以在這個關於哪些軟體公司的討論中，因為說到底我們在談論的是軟體，無論是在線還是在你的
computer or in the cloud. Um, which of those will be hyperscalers, i.e.
電腦或雲端。哪些會成為超大規模公司，即
companies that are experiencing just like tremendous growth rates, you know, 50% 100% growth rates or are they >> powered by AI?
經歷巨大增長率的公司，你知道，50%、100% 的增長率，還是他們由 AI 驅動？
>> Powered by AI, or are they just going to be a company that's really good and profitable, but not quite growing at that level? And I think this will be a critical year.
由 AI 驅動，還是他們只是一家真的很好很盈利的公司，但增長率沒那麼高？我認為這將是關鍵的一年。
>> Uh, and and the the the first earnings report of the year will be really important for both Microsoft and Meta to kind of set the tone. And while we do
而且今年的第一份財報對 Microsoft 和 Meta 設定基調都非常重要。當我們確實
have all these big and important earnings reports, they could all be overshadowed again because, you know, this past week we had so much macro news that like nobody paid attention to
有所有這些大型重要的財報時，它們可能再次被蓋過，因為，你知道，過去一週我們有太多宏觀新聞，沒人注意
anything else. Um, you know, we had the World Economic Forum with uh where Trump made a speech. Um, and leading up to that, he had, you know, threatened to
其他任何事情。你知道，我們有世界經濟論壇，川普在那裡發表了演講。在那之前，他，你知道，威脅要
impose all of these tariffs on uh the European countries that were standing in his way when it came to Greenland. Trump wants the US to take over Greenland because it has, you know, important
對歐洲國家徵收所有這些關稅，因為它們阻礙他獲得格陵蘭。川普希望美國接管格陵蘭，因為它有，你知道，重要的
natural resources that he wants, you know, the US to have exclusive access to. And this was leading to a very uncomfortable situation with some of our biggest allies leading up to his speech
自然資源，他希望美國獨家獲得。這導致了在他在達沃斯演講之前與我們一些最大的盟友之間非常不舒服的局面。
at Davos. Um, but then all of a sudden on Wednesday, he said he was backing down on the tariffs.
但然後週三突然，他說他在關稅問題上退讓了。
>> We talked about this uh on the previous episode with Monica talking about policy and policy volatility and geopolitics and all of that. And we talked about is
我們在上一集和 Monica 談過這個，談政策和政策波動性和地緣政治等等。我們談到是
this the return of the sell America trade? Well, we saw that trade rear its head, right? And what is the sell America trade? Well, I guess I would
這是「賣出美國」交易的回歸嗎？好吧，我們看到那個交易出現了，對吧？什麼是「賣出美國」交易？好吧，我想我會
define it by selling US stocks, selling US bonds, buying gold, buying stocks or bonds in other countries.
定義它為賣出美國股票、賣出美國債券、買黃金、買其他國家的股票或債券。
>> We saw the return of that early in the week when it looked like, you know, Trump was about to essentially blow up NATO uh in order to get control of
我們在本週早些時候看到那種交易回歸，當時看起來川普即將基本上炸毀北約以獲得
Greenland. once it's was clear that he was looking for a deal, right? And obviously we'll see how these things play out. There's lots of twists and turns. You know, that backed off a
格陵蘭的控制權。一旦清楚他在尋找交易，對吧？顯然我們會看看這些事情如何發展。有很多曲折。你知道，那退了一
little bit. You also meanwhile had what was going on in the Japanese bond market where Japanese long-term bonds were plunging in value, yields were rising as what people were saying were kind of the
點。同時你也有日本債券市場發生的事情，日本長期債券價值暴跌，收益率上升，人們說這是
global bond vigilantes really looking at Japan's fiscal situation and saying we don't want to own Japanese debt for the long term. So that raises two interesting points and and really the
全球債券警惕者真的在看日本的財政狀況，說我們不想長期持有日本債務。這引出了兩個有趣的點，而
focus of them is the bond market, right?
它們的焦點是債券市場，對吧？
One is do people want to be long the prospects of the United States for the long-term future, right? Do do they want to fund all the things that we want to
一是人們是否想長期看好美國的前景，對吧？他們是否想為我們想要
spend on whether that's defense uh or otherwise? And also, are there bond vigilantes out there that are really activated about, you know, the long-term debts of the the biggest countries in
花的所有東西提供資金，無論是國防還是其他？而且，是否有債券警惕者真的在關注，你知道，世界上最大國家的長期債務
the world? I want to pause here for a second because when we talk about like the sell America trade and we talk about the importance of micro versus macro,
？我想在這裡暫停一下，因為當我們談論像「賣出美國」交易和我們談論微觀與宏觀的重要性時，
one thing that we on this show are trying to keep in mind is how individual investors might navigate these things.
這個節目我們試圖記住的一件事是個人投資者如何駕馭這些事情。
Do people make big picture decisions in their portfolio that do they switch between being overweight stocks or overweight bonds? Do they buy and sell individual stocks to express these
人們會在他們的投資組合中做出大局決定嗎？他們會在超配股票或超配債券之間切換嗎？他們會買賣個別股票來表達這些
views? Right? like if there's a tariff threat on a certain industry, pharmaceuticals, do they sell pharmaceutical companies and buy some other industry or are people really just sticking with their index funds and
觀點嗎？對吧？比如如果對某個行業有關稅威脅，製藥，他們會賣掉製藥公司並買其他行業嗎，還是人們真的只是堅持他們的指數基金和
maybe buying the index of another country? Right? We've talked a lot about people investing overseas. So, I would really like if people from our audience could come up with some questions or
也許買另一個國家的指數？對吧？我們談了很多關於人們在海外投資的事。所以，我真的想要如果我們觀眾中的人能提出一些問題或
talk to us about how they navigate these big macro situations. We want to hear from you.
和我們談談他們如何駕馭這些大宏觀情況。我們想聽到你的聲音。
>> Yeah, we want to hear from you. We we want to make this show relevant to the way that you invest and think about these things because, you know, we talk
是的，我們想聽到你的聲音。我們想讓這個節目與你投資和思考這些事情的方式相關，因為，你知道，我們
to big-time money managers and things like that who basically have to make moves sometimes, but but if you're, you know, an everyday investor, you don't have to do anything. You could just sit
和大型資金管理者等交談，他們基本上有時必須採取行動，但如果你，你知道，是一個普通投資者，你不必做任何事情。你可以只是坐
tight. You could express your views in any number of ways.
著不動。你可以用任何方式表達你的觀點。
>> And what we don't know is, are you buying individual stocks? Are you buying ETFs? Are you just kind of setting it and forgetting it and listening to our
我們不知道的是，你是否買個別股票？你是否買 ETF？你是否只是設定好然後忘記它，聽我們的
voices and saying, "hm, that's nice." Um, we'd love to know how you're putting this advice into action.
聲音然後說：「嗯，不錯。」我們很想知道你是如何把這些建議付諸行動的。
>> Yeah. So, if you're uh looking at this on, you know, YouTube, you can leave something in the comments, Spotify, other platforms. You can also send us an
是的。所以，如果你在，你知道，YouTube 上看這個，你可以在評論中留言，Spotify，其他平臺。你也可以給我們發
email, take on the week at wsj.com. And, you know, ask us questions, give us feedback about how we talk about these things, tell us how you think about
郵件，take on the week at wsj.com。而且，你知道，問我們問題，給我們反饋關於我們如何談論這些事情，告訴我們你如何
them. We really want to make your approach and the way you think about these investments a key part of the show and really have a try and have a
思考它們。我們真的想讓你的方法和你思考這些投資的方式成為節目的關鍵部分，真的嘗試進行一場
conversation going uh with with with the audience because that's we sit around all day talking about what would be relevant to people. Well, the best way
與觀眾的對話，因為那就是我們整天坐著討論什麼會與人們相關。好吧，最好的
to find out is to actually ask them. So, send us a note, drop a comment. We'd love to see it.
方法是真的去問他們。所以，給我們發消息，留下評論。我們很想看到。
>> We have um some pending Supreme Court decisions. We had hearings um this past week um from the Supreme Court about uh Lisa Cook uh the Fed governor who Trump
我們有一些待定的最高法院決定。上週我們有最高法院關於 Lisa Cook 的聽證會，川普想解僱的聯準會理事
is trying to fire and on whether he has the authority to do so and the justices seemed skeptical of his authority uh to do that. that you know that's a big
以及他是否有權這樣做，法官似乎對他的權力持懷疑態度。這是一個
question that will relate a lot to the question of Fed Federal Reserve independence >> which is a big part of that sell America sort of >> totally feeding into that um and could
大問題，將與聯準會獨立性的問題密切相關，這是「賣出美國」那種的重要部分。完全融入那個，可能
you know be showing up in the bond markets if people really get the sense that you know the Federal Reserve's independence is at risk and that is why
你知道在債券市場中表現出來，如果人們真的感覺到聯準會的獨立性面臨風險，這就是為什麼
we decided to speak with Greg Peters he's the co-CIO for public fixed income at PIM which is the asset management arm of insurance giant Credential Financial and he's kind of a bond expert.
我們決定與 Greg Peters 交談，他是 PIM 的公共固定收益聯合首席投資官，那是保險巨頭 Credential Financial 的資產管理部門，他是一位債券專家。
>> Yeah, I think this is an important conversation because those public markets which include, you know, corporate bonds, uh, government bonds, leverage loans for highly indebted companies, that's where I think a lot of
是的，我認為這是一場重要的對話，因為那些公共市場，包括，你知道，企業債券，政府債券，高負債公司的槓桿貸款，我認為那是很多
the action might really be this year. And it's not just what we were talking about with, you know, big picture about Fed independence. We're also talking about this AI financing wave. I think
今年真正行動可能發生的地方。這不僅僅是我們談論的，你知道，關於聯準會獨立性的大局。我們還在談論這個 AI 融資浪潮。我認為
that's a hugely important market for 2026. >> Definitely. But I just want to note before we hear that that we spoke with Greg before President Trump gave his
那是 2026 年一個非常重要的市場。肯定的。但我只想在我們聽到之前指出，我們在川普總統在達沃斯發表
speech in Davos and before he reversed the tariffs on Europe that he had threatened earlier. So some of this is from an earlier time.
演講之前以及他撤回之前威脅歐洲的關稅之前和 Greg 交談的。所以其中一些是來自更早的時候。
>> It's hard to line these things up.
很難把這些事情排列起來。
They're all they're all so fluid. Uh well, it's a great conversation and we're going to have that after the break.
它們都非常流動。嗯好吧，這是一場很棒的對話，廣告後我們將進行那個對話。
>> Welcome Greg and thanks so much for joining us.
歡迎 Greg，非常感謝你加入我們。
>> Thanks for having me. The next FOMC meeting is this coming week and market expectations are pretty heavily weighted toward no change. Do you agree with
感謝邀請。下次 FOMC 會議是下週，市場預期相當傾向於不變。你同意
that? Um, and if so, what do you think will be the thing that causes the Fed to ultimately make a change?
嗎？如果是，你認為是什麼會導致聯準會最終做出改變？
>> I do agree with that. Uh, that's been pre-baked and I think that was cemented even more given the news flow um around the DOJ investigation. Um, and
我同意。那已經預先定價了，我認為那甚至更鞏固了，考慮到 DOJ 調查的消息流。
>> and that's the DOJ investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
那是 DOJ 對聯準會主席 Jerome Powell 的調查。
>> Yes. and the Fed broadly. Yes. So, um you know, I think that um rightly or wrongly uh the market, you know, priced out any scoch of um of cut uh based on
是的。以及更廣泛的聯準會。是的。所以，你知道，我認為不管對錯，市場，你知道，根據那個定價出了任何降息的可能性
that. That's how the market interpreted it. Uh whether that's right or wrong, I don't know. Uh but just put that on the side. I know it's really hard to do
那就是市場的解讀。這是對是錯，我不知道。但把那放在一邊。我知道那很難做到
that, but uh the data itself um doesn't really support um any cut at this point in time, right? you have uh uh you know growth that's actually quite robust. Uh
但數據本身目前並不真的支持任何降息，對吧？你有增長實際上相當強勁。
you have inflation at least per the latest reading uh you know coming down.
你有通脹，至少根據最新讀數，你知道在下降。
Um and um you know I think the Fed rightfully uh is in wait and see mode and that's what the market's pricing in.
我認為聯準會正確地處於觀望模式，這就是市場定價的。
So, you already mentioned the um DOJ investigation. That's obviously brought up renewed worries about Fed independence, but yet the market hasn't really reacted in a major way to it or
所以，你已經提到了 DOJ 調查。那顯然引發了對聯準會獨立性的新擔憂，但市場對此沒有以重大方式反應或
at least in a lasting way. What do you think it will take to get the market to believe that something, you know, has happened that puts the Fed's independence at risk?
至少沒有持久的方式。你認為需要什麼才能讓市場相信發生了什麼事情，你知道，讓聯準會的獨立性面臨風險？
>> That's right. I think it's important to remember that independence isn't a binary function, right? It's a across a continuum. Um and the market read last week once again rightly or wrongly was
那是對的。我認為重要的是要記住獨立性不是一個二元函數，對吧？它是一個連續體。而市場上週的解讀，再次不管對錯
that was an overstep. Uh and in fact that that almost cemented uh uh the the independence piece of it, right? You saw both sides of the aisle, you know, kind
是那是一個越界。而事實上那幾乎鞏固了獨立性的部分，對吧？你看到兩黨都，你知道，
of speak out against it. Uh and so the market interpreted that particular event as as a perverse positive in a way. Uh in part >> because you saw the push back. you you
反對它。所以市場把那個特定事件解讀為某種意義上的反向積極。部分原因是因為你看到了反擊。你
saw the push back um um and the markets interpreted that as saving independence, whatever that means. So um that's why the market didn't react.
看到了反擊，市場把那解讀為拯救了獨立性，不管那意味著什麼。所以那就是為什麼市場沒有反應。
>> We learned in December that the economy grew by a stronger than expected annual rate of 4.3%.
我們在十二月得知經濟以超出預期的 4.3% 年率增長。
And AI spending was a really big component of that. Um and it seems like it's going to continue to be a major driver of that. But how sustainable do
AI 支出是其中一個非常大的組成部分。似乎它將繼續成為一個主要驅動力。但你
you think that is over the long run?
認為那在長期內有多可持續？
>> I think it's sustainable for quite some time. And what I mean by quite some time uh the next uh you know 24 months. Um so
我認為它在相當長一段時間內是可持續的。我說的相當長一段時間是接下來的 24 個月。所以
if you look at uh the AI spend and the impact on GDP growth uh we accounted that AI spend to be about a third of the growth in the first half of last year
如果你看 AI 支出和對 GDP 增長的影響，我們計算 AI 支出在去年上半年約佔增長的三分之一
and about half uh uh in the second half of last year. Um and so this has been a a a clear driver of the economy. But the real question is will it drive productivity?
在去年下半年約佔一半。所以這一直是經濟的明確驅動力。但真正的問題是它會推動生產力嗎？
uh and we are seeing signs of uh improved productivity. I think that's in part why you're seeing the labor market being so anemic uh as you know corporates are really kind of thinking
我們正在看到生產力改善的跡象。我認為這部分是為什麼你看到勞動力市場如此疲軟，因為你知道公司真的在思考
through their labor profile in the face of you know AI.
面對 AI 他們的勞動力結構。
>> They don't want to hire a bunch in advance of these expected savings exactly later on. But couldn't we also have um you know the productivity gains never materialize and people realize oh
他們不想在這些預期的節省之前提前大量招聘。但我們不也可能生產力收益永遠不會實現，人們意識到哦
maybe we do have to go back to hiring >> you could I mean all these things are possible uh um >> I think it's a low probability quite
也許我們確實要回去招聘。你可以，我是說所有這些都有可能。我認為這是相當低的概率
honest uh the question is how big will the turn of productivity be will it be 50 basis points 100 basis points >> you know two basis points right so um
老實說，問題是生產力的回報會有多大，會是 50 個基點，100 個基點
>> uh but it matters you know getting to a different growth growth plane through productivity uh is crucial not only from a debt sustainability standpoint as you can kind of classically help grow your
你知道兩個基點對吧，所以。但這很重要，你知道，通過生產力達到不同的增長平臺對於不僅從債務可持續性的角度來說是至關重要的，因為你可以經典地幫助通過增長來
way out of the debt problem. Uh hope does spring internal um but it also just allows you know corporates to do better uh but the impact on labor um is very
擺脫債務問題。希望確實是永恆的，但它也只是讓公司做得更好，但對勞動力的影響是非常
much an open question. Mhm. Speaking of AI, you guys have um I think raised a fund related to investing in data centers. Um and obviously data centers are a huge you know investment um
開放的問題。說到 AI，你們有我認為與投資數據中心相關的基金。顯然數據中心是一個巨大的投資
opportunity. How does Pum think about investing in data centers and have you participated in any of the big recent financings?
機會。Pum 如何看待投資數據中心，你們有沒有參與最近的大型融資？
>> Yeah, so I think the first um thing to mention is there's just so much debt.
是的，我認為首先要提到的是有太多債務。
There's so much that has to be financed here over the next 24 months. It's it's eyepopping. Um, you know, the latest estimate is on the order of 5.3 trillion.
在接下來 24 個月內有太多需要融資的東西。這令人瞠目結舌。最新的估計是大約 5.3 兆美元。
>> Wow. >> Um, and that's debt that has to hit the marketplace for the most part. About 1 and a half trillion will be financed through free cash flow, the hyperscalers. So, it leaves,
哇。那是大部分必須進入市場的債務。大約 1.5 兆將通過超大規模公司的自由現金流融資。所以，剩下的，
>> you know, basically 4 trillion that has to hit the uh, you know, the bond market. So there's going to be this massive supply wave to finance.
你知道，基本上 4 兆必須進入債券市場。所以會有這個大規模的供應浪潮需要融資。
>> I think investors have to be quite careful here.
我認為投資者在這裡必須非常小心。
>> Um um and we are quite careful. The way we're thinking about it from an investment standpoint is through the construction financing side.
我們非常謹慎。我們從投資角度考慮的方式是通過建設融資方面。
>> Okay. >> Um ultimately it's just called a fancy construction loan. Uh uh uh but we like the collateral. We like the back stop >> and the collateral is the data center
好的。最終它只是被稱為高級建設貸款。但我們喜歡抵押品。我們喜歡後盾，而抵押品就是數據中心
itself. Collateral is the data center uh andor the leases.
本身。抵押品是數據中心或租賃。
>> Okay. >> Um and uh it's much shorter tenor in nature. Uh so you're not making this play for 10 years, 20 years, 30 years.
好的。而且它的期限要短得多。所以你不是在做這個 10 年、20 年、30 年的賭注。
What has really been eye popping and headscratching for me is in the investment grade corporate market that these hyperscalers have come to the market in unsecured way for long-term
真正令人瞠目結舌和困惑的是在投資級企業市場，這些超大規模公司以無擔保方式進入市場尋求長期
debt. Um and you know just given how much we don't know and I would submit that 40 years is a very long time.
債務。而且你知道，考慮到我們不知道的有多少，我會說 40 年是很長的時間。
>> So what are we talking about in terms of your preferred time horizon?
那麼我們談論的你偏好的時間範圍是什麼？
>> Well it's you know five years in in I say um um and you know the question is how involved will we be a year from now?
好吧是，你知道，五年內，問題是一年後我們會有多參與？
My guess is a lot less involved. So, we see this opportunity today, but I'm not convinced there'll be a massive opportunity 12, 24 months from now as it
我猜會少很多。所以，我們今天看到這個機會，但我不確信 12、24 個月後會有大規模的機會，因為
all has to be refinanced too, right? So, um that's the first thing. There's this massive refinancing that has to occur.
所有這些也必須再融資，對吧？所以，那是第一件事。有這個大規模的再融資必須發生。
Um and then the useful life of the chips and the racks themselves are an open question. Um, and it's really hard to get a return on invested capital when
然後晶片和機架本身的使用壽命是一個開放的問題。而且，當
you constantly have to, you know, reinvest in such an expensive way um in uh in the chip piece of it. So that's what worries me.
你不斷需要以如此昂貴的方式在晶片部分重新投資時，真的很難獲得投資資本的回報。所以那是我擔心的。
>> What is the biggest risk in your mind um on when you're looking at data center investments?
當你看數據中心投資時，你心目中最大的風險是什麼？
If you listen to the hyperscalers themselves, they believe that it's essentially a winner take all environment. As an investor, particularly as a bond investor, if you invest across, you know, the different hyperscalers, you're
如果你聽超大規模公司自己說，他們相信這基本上是一個贏者通吃的環境。作為投資者，特別是作為債券投資者，如果你投資
definitionally, if you take their words at face value, investing in six that are not going to make it, >> one winner and five losers or six or or however it is.
不同的超大規模公司，如果你接受他們的話，你在定義上投資了六個不會成功的，一個贏家和五個輸家或六個或不管是幾個。
>> Exactly. Right. So that is that is just the inherent problem uh from a debt investing side. Um that's why I think it's so important to have a good
正是如此。對。所以那就是從債務投資角度的固有問題。這就是為什麼我認為有良好的
structure to have good collateral to do whatever you can to mitigate that downside. Um but I see that as the biggest risk. uh just definitionally not everyone can win and the markets are
結構、好的抵押品、盡你所能來減輕那種下行風險是如此重要。但我把那看作是最大的風險。定義上不是每個人都能贏，而市場
feeding them all hoping for one. >> So um Pim last year merged its public fixed income and its private credit investing teams and I write a lot about private credit so I'm interested in
在餵養他們所有人希望一個人贏。所以 Pim 去年合併了它的公共固定收益和私人信貸投資團隊，我寫了很多關於私人信貸的文章，所以我對
this. You've said that, you know, you think the lines between public and private credit are blurring and that there's this sort of convergence happening, but what is like what does
這個很感興趣。你說過，你知道，你認為公共和私人信貸之間的界限正在模糊，有這種融合正在發生，但什麼是像什麼
that mean as an investor and what does that mean in terms of in practice in terms of how you allocate?
意味著作為投資者，這在實踐中在分配方面意味著什麼？
>> Yeah. So, I'm really excited about this.
是的。所以，我對這個非常興奮。
I I I've been working on this um almost exclusively for the past nine months and you know building out an investment process around public and privates. Um
過去九個月我幾乎專門在做這件事，你知道建立一個關於公共和私人的投資流程。
the way I think about it uh is in very simple terms. Um investors um who think about their asset allocation in a siloed way miss the relative value
我對它的思考方式是非常簡單的術語。以孤立方式思考資產配置的投資者會錯過相對價值
opportunities. And what I mean by that is if you know I'm a pension fund and and have a direct allocation into middle market direct lending >> that's making loans to mid-size
機會。我的意思是，如果你知道我是一個養老基金，直接配置在中等市場直接借貸，那是向中型
businesses. Yeah. I'm in that whether it's a good environment or a bad environment. Um that's my allocation >> because I've said this is going to be my allocation and I'm stuck.
企業提供貸款。是的。我在那裡，不管是好環境還是壞環境。那是我的配置，因為我說過這將是我的配置然後我就被困住了。
>> Yeah. >> Yeah. Um but if you have a manager who has capabilities in middle market direct lending um and real estate uh you know debt financing and public fixed income
是的。是的。但如果你有一個在中等市場直接借貸和房地產債務融資和公共固定收益方面都有能力的經理
uh then they can allocate uh uh for you so to speak and take advantage of those dislocations.
那他們可以為你分配，可以說，並利用那些錯位。
>> So does that just mean more dynamic investing?
那這只是意味著更動態的投資嗎？
>> It does. That's exactly what it means.
是的。那正是它的意思。
Uh and portfolio theory is simple in a way that you know the more levers that you have to pull um then the better ability to create alpha and that's what
而且投資組合理論在某種程度上很簡單，就是你知道你可以拉動的槓桿越多，創造 alpha 的能力就越好，這是
we endeavor to do. And so I look at the world uh changing not so much around this demarcation of public and private >> but around the continuum of liquidity. M
我們努力做的。所以我看待世界變化的方式不是圍繞公共和私人的這種劃分，而是圍繞流動性的連續體。
>> um and you know there's there's securities in public fixed income that are not necessarily liquid that are in the quoteunquote liquid bucket, >> right? Just because they're public.
而且你知道有公共固定收益中的證券不一定是流動的，卻在所謂的流動性桶中，對吧？只是因為它們是公開的。
>> Yeah. Uh and you know smaller high yield bonds or lever loans is a great example of that. Um and so I think investors will look at it across that liquidity
是的。而且你知道較小的高收益債券或槓桿貸款是一個很好的例子。所以我認為投資者會跨越那個流動性
continuum and this total portfolio approach uh lens more than just this demarcation madeup demarcation of this is public this is private this goes here that goes there and they should never
連續體和這種整體投資組合方法的視角，而不是只是這種虛構的公共是這個、私人是那個、這個放這裡、那個放那裡、它們永遠不應該
meet. So I I I see the world changing >> and some of the private credit players are trying to create more liquidity in the private markets as well.
相遇的劃分。所以我看到世界在變化，而且一些私人信貸玩家也在嘗試在私人市場創造更多流動性。
Absolutely. And I think that's just going to uh hasten the change. Um as a lot of investors moved into private credit the past, you know, five years because of the illquidity, right? Right.
絕對。而且我認為這只會加速變化。因為過去五年很多投資者進入私人信貸是因為非流動性，對吧？對。
It was, you know, >> I can get paid a premium for this illquidity, right?
這是，你知道，我可以為這種非流動性獲得溢價，對吧？
>> Yeah. The infinite sharp ratio, right? If if your security isn't marked, then there's no volatility and you know, you just have, you know, any return that you
是的。無限夏普比率，對吧？如果你的證券沒有被標記，那就沒有波動性，你知道，你只有，你知道，你有的任何回報
have is is a great sharp. Basically, >> with a public security, the it's priced minute by minute and you see the the price change and your, you know, your
都是很好的夏普。基本上，對於公開證券，它每分每秒都被定價，你看到價格變化，你的，你知道，你的
holdings could be worth a lot less at the end of the day. With a private security, it might you might go for months without a change.
持有量在一天結束時可能價值少很多。對於私人證券，你可能幾個月都沒有變化。
>> 100%. And >> and like I'm very influenced by my own career, which is going back uh uh when I was in the high yield bond market um and then the lever loan market
100%。而且我受到我自己職業生涯的很大影響，回溯到當我在高收益債券市場時，然後槓桿貸款市場
came about um and it was categorized the same exact way as private credit. It was um senior to cap structure uh it was better covenants uh and it had better
出現了，它被以與私人信貸完全相同的方式分類。它是資本結構的高級部分，它有更好的契約，它有更好的
sharp ratios because it wasn't marked nearly as much. Um, and what we saw happen over time is that the high yield bond market and the lever loan market
夏普比率因為它沒有被標記那麼多。而且，我們看到隨著時間推移發生的是高收益債券市場和槓桿貸款市場
essentially is the same market. Um, and investors conduct that relative value across loans um, and and bonds quite freely. So, we've seen this movie before. I think it's poised to happen
基本上是同一個市場。而且，投資者在貸款和債券之間相當自由地進行相對價值。所以，我們以前見過這部電影。我認為它即將再次發生
again. And loans weren't even securities. And that was more tricky than you thought it would be. Um so I think it's inevitable. And then last point is it's happening whether you like
。而且貸款甚至不是證券。而且那比你想的更棘手。所以我認為這是不可避免的。然後最後一點是它正在發生，不管你喜不喜歡
it or not. So in our portfolios uh we are being refinanced out of our public bonds into private securities and vice versa. And so it's it's it's a question of pace, not what if.
。所以在我們的投資組合中，我們正被從公共債券再融資到私人證券，反之亦然。所以這是一個節奏問題，不是如果的問題。
>> And the ability to be nimble and to be able to own all different kinds of things, I guess.
而且能夠靈活並且能夠擁有各種不同的東西，我想。
>> Absolutely. >> Yeah. We're going to take a quick break.
絕對。是的。我們要快速休息一下。
When we come back, we'll have one more question for Greg Peters of PIM.
回來後，我們還有一個問題要問 PIM 的 Greg Peters。
In 30 seconds or less, what's your biggest concern as an investor as you look out over the next 12 months?
在 30 秒或更短時間內，作為投資者，你在展望未來 12 個月時最大的擔憂是什麼？
>> My biggest concern over the next 12 months um is the overheating concern. Uh you know, we have a situation where, you know, GDP growth is picking up. We have
我未來 12 個月最大的擔憂是過熱的擔憂。你知道，我們有一個情況，GDP 增長正在加速。我們有
a tremendous amount of fiscal stimulus coming through. We have lower energy prices. We have a push towards deregulation.
大量的財政刺激正在通過。我們有較低的能源價格。我們有推動放鬆管制。
Uh you have the prospects of lower um interest rates as well, at least on the front end. Uh and that could push us um into this overheating higher inflationary environment. Um, and what
你有較低利率的前景，至少在短期端。而且那可能把我們推入這種過熱的高通脹環境。而且
worries me more than anything else is uh the uh upsurge in inflation as we saw that story play out before. Uh, and there's nowhere really to hide from that.
比其他任何事情更讓我擔心的是通脹的上升，因為我們以前見過那個故事。而且，那裡真的無處可躲。
>> Thanks so much. >> Thank you. I dare them to do this and not swing around on the chair. Like it's like make it casual. Don't Don't you dare move.
非常感謝。謝謝你。我挑戰他們做這個時不要在椅子上搖晃。就像讓它隨意一點。不許動。
>> I know a little bit. Stay absolutely still.
我知道有點。絕對不要動。
>> Okay. >> Don't use your hands. Don't talk with your hands.
好的。不要用手。不要用手說話。