There's mention of Greenland being invaded by the United States. There's the situation in Iran. Trump has snatched Maduro from Venezuela. There's talk of China taking back

有人說格陵蘭被美國入侵，伊朗局勢、特朗普從委內瑞拉抓走 Maduro，還有中國要收回

Taiwan. What the hell is going on?

臺灣。到底怎麼回事？

>> Well, what you're seeing is the West becoming weaker and embolding our enemies and the final collapse of a shared myth that we were living in a

你看到的是西方變弱、敵人更大膽，以及我們曾相信的「我們活在一個」共同神話的最終崩潰：

structured world where everything is done according to the rules. That is now gone. And Trump is acting in recognition of that reality, saying we are not going

有規則、一切按規則來的結構化世界。那已經沒了。特朗普在認清這個現實下行動，說我們不再

to play by the fake rules anymore that no one else is playing by.

按假規則玩了，反正別人也沒在遵守。

Anyway, >> is there a risk with this strategy?

總之，這種策略有風險嗎？

>> Of course. And we can talk about the reasons for it. I think it's really important.

當然有。我們可以聊聊原因，我覺得很重要。

>> The floor is yours.

請說。

>> Constantine Kissen is one of the sharpest voices in political commentary right now.

Constantine Kisin 是當下政治評論裡最犀利的聲音之一。

>> He's here to unpack the current geopolitical landscape and what could be done to salvage the West before it's too late.

他來拆解當前地緣政治格局，以及西方在為時已晚之前能做什麼。

>> So, Russia invading Ukraine was not an accident. It was a consequence of the fact that Putin felt this was the moment to test the waters. Can we now do the

所以俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭不是意外，是普京覺得「是時候試水溫」的結果。我們現在能做

things we've always wanted to do?

我們一直想做的事嗎？

Because the West lost its focus and sense of purpose. So, for example, I don't know if you know this, Europe is 12% of the world's population,

因為西方失去了焦點和目標感。例如，歐洲佔世界人口 12%、

25% of the world's GDP, and 60% of the world's welfare spending. Germany destroyed its nuclear facilities, thereby making itself reliant on Russian gas. And in Britain, we've

世界 GDP 的 25%、世界福利支出的 60%。德國毀掉核設施，讓自己依賴俄羅斯天然氣。英國

destroyed our manufacturing, which is now produced elsewhere. and we've run down our armed forces because we have felt so safe and so comfortable because there's been no consequence. Well, the

毀掉了製造業，現在都在別處生產，還裁減軍隊，因為我們覺得太安全、太舒服、沒有後果。後果

consequences are here per person. We have less money today than we did 20 years ago. We have the highest tax burden in peace time history. We're

現在來了。我們現在比二十年前更窮，和平時期稅負史上最高。我們在

driving out the entrepreneurs and we've already seen a decline in our power in the world and our influence in the world. That's the big danger. But

趕走企業家，我們在世界上的權力和影響力已經下降。那是大危險。但

there is an opportunity to turn things around if we can make these big decisions. What are you hopeful?

如果我們能做出這些重大決定，還有機會扭轉。你有什麼希望？

>> Listen, my my team gave me a script that they asked me to read, but I'm just going to ask you um in the nicest way I

我團隊給了我一份稿子要我念，但我只想用最客氣的方式問你：

possibly can. Thank you first and foremost for choosing to subscribe to this channel. It is um it's been one of the most incredible crazy years of my

首先謝謝你選擇訂閱這個頻道。這是我人生中最瘋狂、最不可思議的一年之一，

life. I never could have imagined. I had so many dreams in my life, but this was not one of them. And the very fact that

我從沒想過。我人生有很多夢想，但這不在其中。你能

these conversations have resonated with you and you've given me so much feedback is something I will always be appreciative of. And I almost carry away

讓這些對談引起共鳴、給你這麼多回饋，我一直很感激，也幾乎背負著

a sort of burden of uh responsibility to pay you back. And the favor I would like to ask from you today is to subscribe to

一種要回報你的責任。今天想請你幫的忙是訂閱

the channel if you um would be so obliged. It's completely free to do that. Roughly about 47% of you that listen to this channel frequently

頻道，如果你願意。完全免費。常聽這個頻道的人裡大概有 47%

currently don't subscribe to this channel. So if you're one of those people, please come and join us. Hit the subscribe button. It's the single free

目前沒訂閱。如果你是其中之一，請加入我們，按訂閱。這是唯一免費

thing you can do to make this channel better. And every subscriber sort of pays into this show and allows us to do things bigger and better and to push

能讓這個頻道更好的事。每個訂閱者都在支持這個節目，讓我們能做更大更好的事、

ourselves even more. And I will not let you down if you hit the subscribe button. I promise you. And if I do, please do unsubscribe, but I promise I

更逼自己。按訂閱我不會讓你失望，我保證。如果我讓你了，請退訂，但我保證我

won't. Thank you, Constantine.

不會。謝謝，Constantine。

There is so much going on in the world right now that it is incredibly confusing to somebody like me who doesn't spend a lot of time thinking

世上發生太多事，對我這種不常想地緣政治或大局的人來說非常混亂。

about geopolitics or the bigger picture.

或更大圖景。

I'm very very heads downstand as I imagine a lot of people in my audience are. We kind of get on with our lives.

我很埋頭做事，我想很多觀眾也是。我們過自己的日子。

But every time we look up at the news, there's Trump has snatched Maduro from Venezuela. There's the war with Russia and Ukraine. There's something going on

但每次抬頭看新聞：特朗普從委內瑞拉抓走 Maduro、俄烏戰爭、

with Iran. There's mention of Greenland being invaded by the United States.

伊朗有事、有人說格陵蘭被美國入侵。

There's talk of China taking back Taiwan. I wanted to speak to you today to understand your perspective on the bigger picture here.

有人說中國要收回臺灣。今天想聽你對大局的看法。

>> What the hell is going on?

到底怎麼回事？

Well, what you're seeing is the the final collapse of what people have described as the postworld war II order, which then became the post Soviet

你看到的是人們所稱「二戰後秩序」——後來變成蘇聯解體後秩序——的最終崩潰。1945 年二戰結束、冷戰開始，

collapse order. So, if you think about 1945, World War II finishes and the Cold War begins. So, you go from World War II to two big major players in the world

從二戰變成世界上兩大玩家爭霸，一直持續到 1991 年蘇聯解體，然後變成單極世界，只有一個

competing for dominance. And that lasts until 1991 when the Soviet Union collapses at which point you get the uniolar world in which there's only one

霸權、只有一個國家在設定世界規則。西方在 1991 年失去焦點和目標感，

hedgeimonyy, only one country that's really setting the terms of what's happening in the world. The west lost its focus and its sense of purpose in

因為我們想：我們打敗了勁敵——共產主義、蘇聯、俄羅斯等等——然後我們有點不知道該做什麼，

1991 because we were like, well, we we defeated our great rival, communism, Soviet, Russia, etc. And then we kind of didn't really know what to do and we

鬆懈了。現在發生的是二戰以來我們賴以生存的整個框架正在快速瓦解。所以

took eye off the ball. And what's happening now is that entire framework that we have had since World War II is disintegrating very rapidly. This is why

鑑於近期事件和 Maduro 情況，你常聽到人談國際法。國際法——我不知道

you know in in light of recent events and the the Maduro situation you hear a lot of people talk about international law. International law was I don't know

你有沒有請過 Harari 上節目——他寫了《人類大歷史》，說我們活在世上的幾乎一切都是一種共同神話，法律、金錢、這些都是

if you if you ever had you will know Harrari on your show. I have yet to wrote the book book called Sapiens in which he talks about the fact that

我們之間的約定，讓不真實的東西變真實。

almost everything that we live in the world in in which we exist is a kind of shared myth that we have and laws and money and all these things. They are

金錢不是真的，那張紙在你口袋裡沒有價值，除了大家同意它是

agreements that we have between us to make things real that are not real.

錢。國際法其實也是那樣，但比那還弱。因為法律是什麼？法律要有

Money isn't real. That piece of paper has no value in your pocket really outside of the fact that other people have got together and agreed that it's

不僅當事人同意，歸根結底還要有武力、合法武力。對

money. Right. Well, international law really was that, but even weaker than that. Because if you think about what a law is, a law is something that has to

國際法來說，從來沒有什麼能執行這法律，除了世上最強的國家。所以中國若入侵臺灣，沒人會做什麼

be backed by not only the consent of the people who are involved, but also ultimately it's about the use of force, the legitimate use of force. Now, for

因為沒有更高權威有軍事能力去做什麼。所以我們曾相信的「我們活在

international law, there's never been anything that could enforce that law other than the most powerful country in the world, right? So if China invades Taiwan, no one's going to do anything

有規則、一切按規則來的結構化世界」——你可能聽過「規則為基礎的秩序」——那

about it because there is no overarching authority with the military to be able to do anything about it. And so that shared fiction that we had which we were

已經沒了。特朗普在認清這個現實下行動，他說：既然現在各人自掃門前雪，我要

living in a structured world in which everything is done according to the rules, the rules-based order. You might have heard that term being used. That is

做符合美國利益的事。例如，讓一個公然敵對、離美國很近、

now gone. And Trump is acting in recognition of that reality. and he's saying, well, given that it's sort of every man for himself now, I'm going to

亂到七百萬人逃難的國家領袖在那裡，符合我們利益嗎？

do what's in the interest of the United States. Is it in the interest of the United States, for example, to have an openly hostile leader of a country close

委內瑞拉。讓這個人跟俄羅斯、中國親近符合我們利益嗎？讓他在

to the US, which is so destabilized that 7 million people have fled as refugees?

Margarita 島上設真主黨訓練營符合我們利益嗎？這是在回到門羅主義：美國不允許外國在自家

>> Venezuela. Is it in our interest to have this person cozying up to Russia and China? Is it in our interest to allow him to have Hezbollah training camps on

後院插手。所以他現在在做的是說：這就是我們活著的世界，我要做對我國最有利的事。我覺得

the island of Margarita? Is it in our interest? It's going back to the Monroy doctrine, the idea that America does not allow foreign nations to meddle in its

你看到的就是這個。

backyard, so to speak. And so what he's doing now is going, "Well, look, this is the world we live in. I'm going to do what's best for my country." And I think

這種策略有風險嗎？

that's what you're seeing.

當然，每種策略都有風險，這種也有。這種策略無可避免有很大風險，我

>> Is there a risk with this strategy?

想正如我在書裡說的，西方變弱、讓敵人更大膽——我們已經這樣很久了——正在

>> Of course, there's a risk with every strategy. Of course, there's a risk with this strategy. There was a big risk inevitably with this strategy and I

創造一個我們敞開自己給其他勢力挑戰的環境。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭不是意外，不是意外，是

think you know as I talked about in my book the the west becoming weaker and emboldening our enemies which is what we have done for a long time now is

普京和領導團隊其他人覺得「是時候試水溫」的結果。我們現在能做我們一直想做的事嗎？

creating an environment where we are opening ourselves up to challenge from other forces. Russia invading Ukraine was not an accident. It was not an accident. It was a consequence of the

你覺得他們覺得能在拜登任內這麼做？

fact that Putin and other people in his leadership team felt this was the moment to test the waters. Can we now do the things we've always wanted to do

對。但我不會把它個人化到那個層級。太多人糾結於共和黨、民主黨、左、右、

>> and they felt they could do that under Biden in your view?

拜登、特朗普。這是幾十年來持續的過程，頂點先是烏克蘭被入侵，然後是十月七日。

>> Yes. But see, I wouldn't personalize it down to that level. I think far too many people get carried away with, you know, Republican, Democrat, left, right,

十月七日也不是意外。

Biden, Trump. It's an ongoing process that's been going on for decades. And the culmination of it was first the invasion of Ukraine, then October 7th.

伊朗支持的哈馬斯覺得那是他們行動的時刻，因為西方在道德、軍事和其他方面能

October 7th was not an accident either.

有力回應嗎？他們覺得能試。中國現在公開談收回臺灣又是同一個

Hamas backed by Iran felt that this was their moment to act because again is the West going to be able to respond morally, militarily, and in other ways

現象的症狀。所以風險在那裡，當然風險還有西方聯盟正在瓦解，我們可以聊原因。我

powerfully to that. They felt that they were able to test it. The fact that China now is openly talking about taking Taiwan is again another symptom of this

覺得這很重要，尤其我們在英國、在更廣的歐洲錄這集。

same thing. So the risk is there and of course the risk as well is that you know the the crumbling western alliance we can talk about the reasons for it. I

西方聯盟正在瓦解，那永遠是風險，對歐洲尤其大。我覺得

think it's really important to particularly we're recording this in Britain and and in Europe more broadly.

在我們深入細節、補幾句你剛說的之前：有多少

I think that's an important conversation. The western alliance is falling apart. Um and that is always going to be a risk. It's particularly big risk for Europe. I feel

和核武有關？

>> how much of this and before we go into the details and just catch up on a few of the things you said there. How much

因為我在想，這些強權都在對付沒有核武的國家。

of this is linked to nuclear weapons?

我總覺得美國若中國拿下臺灣不會介入，是因為中國有核武；美國有點怕俄羅斯也是因為他們有核武。所以世界是不是在分裂成有核國家——有核武的可以

Because I was thinking I I can't really All of these superpowers are going for countries that aren't armed with nuclear weapons.

為所欲為，因為他們一生氣就能毀掉地球？這其實一直如此，只是我們曾被

>> And it all it somewhat feels to me that the reason why the US wouldn't get involved if China took Taiwan is because they have nukes. And the reason why

規則為基礎的秩序框架約束。但那框架被拆了。所以我覺得西方和美國在內必須

the US is a little bit intimidated by Russia is because they have nukes. So is it really the world is splitting into nuclear powers and anyone with nukes can

承擔責任，因為阿富汗戰爭、尤其是伊拉克戰爭，完全損害了我們的道德可信度。你到處入侵、找藉口，怎麼能說俄羅斯不能入侵

do what the they want because they can basically wipe out planet Earth if they get angry. And that has always been the case except we've been constrained

烏克蘭？所以我們侵蝕了道德權威，也

by the framework of the rules-based order. But that got taken apart. And this is where I think the West and the United States including needs to take

侵蝕了軍事實力和我們對「不守規矩」者造成損害的能力。所以兩者都

responsibility because the the war in Afghanistan and Iraq even more so completely undermined our moral credibility. You know, how can you say, well, Russia isn't allowed to invade

在我有生之年看到這些，覺得太瘋狂了，三十三年來從沒這樣。我聽到美國總統

Ukraine if you go around invading countries on a whim, making up excuses and reasons to do that. So we have eroded our moral authority and we've

談綁架另一個總統、然後進去拿石油。

also eroded our military strength and the potential that we have to inflict damage on people who misbehave so to speak. So both of those things have come

然後你知道嗎？我們可能也拿下格陵蘭，把那邊那個大國也拿下來，儘管它屬於北約盟國

>> It seems so crazy to me that in my lifetime I'm I'm seeing cuz it's really never happened in the 33 years that I've been alive. I'm hearing a US president

丹麥。感覺有什麼根本變了。

talk about kidnapping another president and then going in and taking the oil.

我擔心這會立的先例：那我們是不是都可以開始拿我們想要的國家？

And then you know what? We might take Greenland as well. We might have that big country over there as well. Even though it belongs to a NATO ally in

權力平衡在 shift 時就會這樣。所以我一直說維持單極時刻、

Denmark, >> it it feels like something has fundamentally changed.

不讓西方削弱自己很重要，因為一有權力真空就會有權力

>> And I'm scared of the presidents this is going to set because do we then all just get to start taking countries we want?

鬥爭。墨西哥就是很好的例子：過去二十年墨西哥有巨大的毒品戰爭，

>> Well, this is what happens when there is a a a a shifting of the balance of power. This is why I always said maintaining the unipolar moment as it

因為不同毒梟在爭權。一旦你除掉一個毒梟頭目或出事，就是大屠殺。

was and not allowing the west to weaken itself was a really important thing because the moment you have a power vacuum, you always have a power

因為當中央權威、現有體制崩潰時就會這樣。你無可避免會進入更

struggle. Mexico is a very good example of this. If you look at what's been happening, there's been a a gigantic drug war in Mexico for the last 20 years

暴力、更不穩、更不可預測的境地。特朗普做的其實只是在反映多年來已經存在的現實，只是他反映在

because there are different cartels vying for power. And the moment you take out the leader of one cartel or something happens, there's a bloodbath.

美國外交政策上。他說：既然俄羅斯要做他們想做的、我們擋不住，中國要做

Because this is what happens when the central authority, the central power, the the current system breaks down. You inevitably end up in a much more

他們想做的、我們也擋不住，那我們就得做我們該做的，沒人擋得住我們。

violent, much more unstable, much more unpredictable place. And all Trump really is doing is reflecting the reality that has been already there for years, except he's reflecting in

那就是你現在活著的世界。順便說核武這點，你完全說對了。不充分支持烏克蘭——我們沒有——

American foreign policy. He's saying, "Well, look, if Russia is going to do what it wants to do, and we can't stop them, and if China is going to do what

我們支持得不夠、無法真正擊退俄羅斯的侵略，會無可避免導致很多小

they want to do, and we can't stop them, well, we've got to do what we've got to do, and no one's going to stop us." And

國追求核武，因為那是這世上唯一的安全保障。那對世界是核擴散的

that's the world you've ended up in. And by the way, just on the nuclear point, I think it's important to say you're 100% right. And this is one of the things

大危險，因為如果先例是：有核武的可以為所欲為、永遠不會被攻擊，

I've always said about not supporting Ukraine properly, which we haven't done.

沒核武的脆弱，那小國最理性的做法是什麼？那是大

we have not supported them enough to be able to actually fully repel the aggression from Russia is it would inevitably lead to lots of other small

危險。你剛說單極世界和多極世界，我在想會不會變成

countries pursuing nuclear weapons because it is the only guarantee of security in this world. it that is a huge danger for the world in terms of

有多少個核武國——大概九或十個——世界會不會分裂成這十個核武國，這十個

nuclear proliferation because if the precedent is like you say the people with nuclear weapons can do what they want and they can never be attacked and

核武國基本上可以為所欲為。

the people with no nuclear weapons are vulnerable and weak what would be the most rational thing for you to do if you're a smaller country that's the big

有核國家不一樣。我不覺得巴基斯坦會橫掃鄰國，至少因為鄰國也都有

danger >> cuz you know you were talking about a uniolar world and a multi-polar world but I wonder if the it's going to be how

核武。我覺得你主要說的是俄、中、美。我不覺得英國會再入侵法國——雖然那件事我顯然

many nuclear powers are there there's like nine or or 10 >> if the world is going to split into these 10 nuclear powers and these 10

贊成。但如果巴基斯坦決定拿下鄰國，沒人真的能動他們，因為經濟上、有一顆核武和

nuclear powers can basically do what they want.

有龐大核武庫不一樣。我覺得巴基斯坦行為相對受約束，但大國不是。順便說，收回法國是開玩笑。

>> Well, nuclear powers are different. I don't I don't see Pakistan likely to be rampaging through its neighbors, not at least cuz they're all they're all

我想說清楚。

nuclear powers themselves. Uh I think you're you're talking about Russia, China, and the US primarily. I don't see Britain, you know, reinvading France, although that's something obviously I'm

有九個核武國：美國、俄羅斯、英國、法國、中國、印度、巴基斯坦、北韓、以色列——雖然他們不承認。

in favor of. If Pakistan decided to take a neighboring country though, >> nobody can really come for them because >> uh economic >> having one nuke is not the same as

以色列對核武的立場很好笑。官方立場是：我們沒有核武，但如果以色列

having a gigantic nuclear arsenal. I think Pakistan is relatively constrained in its behavior, but the big superpowers are not. So, >> by the way, retaking France was a joke.

面臨被摧毀的風險，我們一定會用。

I just want to make that clear.

我們怎麼走到這一步？有哪些因素把我們帶到這個局面？你提到西方

>> And there's eight there's nine nuclear powers. United States, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Although I don't think they admit it.

聯盟瓦解等等。我們需要知道發生了什麼才會變成現在這種「各大國各自為政」的狀態？

>> Yeah. Israel's policy on nuclear weapons is very funny. Do you know what the official position is? We don't have nuclear weapons, but if the state of

部分我們已經聊了。所以特別是 91 年之後，西方失去的不只是目標感，還有

Israel is at risk of being destroyed, we will definitely use them.

危險感和風險感。我們變得很舒服。歐洲佔世界人口 12%、世界 GDP 的 25%、

>> So, how did we get here? What are what are the factors at play that brought us to this particular situation? You talked about the crumbling of the Western

世界福利支出的 60%。

Alliance and other things. What what do we need to know about what happened for us to get to this state where it seems like it's every big power for themsel?

如果你這樣做，就表示你太舒服、太懶了，失去了意識到自己活在危險世界的能力。

>> Well, partly we've already talked about it. So it's it's after 91 in particular the west loses its not only its sense of purpose but it loses its its sense of

這有點離題，但對這場對談是重要的補充：歐洲國家之所以推行

danger and sense of risk. So we get very comfortable. I don't know if you know this uh Europe is 12% of the world's population, 25% of the world's GDP and

世界福利支出的 60%。

60% of the world's welfare spending.

如果你這樣做，就表示你太舒服、太懶了，失去了意識到自己活在危險世界的能力。

>> So if you do that, that is a sign that you've got very comfortable. You've got very lazy. You have lost the ability to realize you live in a dangerous world.

這有點離題，但對這場對談是重要的補充：歐洲國家之所以推行

It's, you know, this is a bit of a sidetrack, but it is an important addendum to this conversation. This is why European countries have pursued

這有點離題，但對這場對談是重要的補充：歐洲國家之所以推行

economic suicide that we call net zero as vigorously as we have because we have felt so safe and so comfortable. we've engaged in all this luxury uh obsessions

我們所稱的「淨零」經濟自殺、還這麼積極，就是因為我們覺得太安全、太舒服，沉迷於各種奢侈與執念。