特朗普試圖影響美聯儲可能引發1970年代式通脹和全球反彈
Trump's attempts to influence Fed risk 1970s-style inflation and global backlash
難度：進階
來源：The Guardian
Economists have warned that attempts to influence the US Federal Reserve could risk plunging America into a period of 1970s-style inflation and trigger a global backlash in financial markets. After the US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the current Fed chair, investors said efforts by the White House to pressure the US central bank to cut interest rates would put the world economy at risk.
經濟學家警告說，試圖影響美聯儲的做法可能導致美國陷入 1970 年代式的通脹期，並引發金融市場的全球反彈。在美國司法部對現任美聯儲主席展開刑事調查後，投資者表示，白宮向美國央行施壓要求降息的做法將使世界經濟面臨風險。
Analysts drew parallels with the 1970s when US inflation soared after the then president pressured the then Fed chair to ease monetary policy to help smooth his election campaign. If the Fed pursues an ultra-accommodative monetary policy despite higher inflation, the result could resemble the 1970s in a worst-case risk scenario.
分析人士將其與 1970 年代相提並論，當時時任總統向時任美聯儲主席施壓要求放鬆貨幣政策以幫助其競選活動順利進行，之後美國通脹飆升。如果美聯儲不顧通脹上升而追求超寬鬆的貨幣政策，在最壞的情況下，結果可能類似於 1970 年代。
Moreover, if the Fed acts on politics rather than data, foreign investors could pull back on financing the US debt and seek new safe havens. The US dollar fell on Monday, while gold prices hit a fresh record high as investors scrambled to buy safe-haven assets.
此外，如果美聯儲根據政治而非資料行事，外國投資者可能會撤回對美國債務的融資，並尋求新的避風港。週一美元下跌，而黃金價格創下歷史新高，因為投資者爭相購買避險資產。
The Fed chair labelled the threat of a criminal indictment as a pretext by the administration to pressure the central bank in its interest-rate setting decisions. He insisted the legal threat was not about his testimony or congressional oversight, but about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.
美聯儲主席將刑事起訴的威脅稱為政府向央行施壓以影響其利率決策的藉口。他堅稱法律威脅不是關於他的證詞或國會監督，而是關於美聯儲是否能夠繼續基於證據和經濟條件設定利率，或者貨幣政策是否會被政治壓力或恐嚇所左右。
Central bank independence is seen by investors as critical for keeping inflation under control because it allows officials to focus on setting policy to tackle underlying pressures. However, attempts at political interference have been rising after the surge in inflation following the pandemic and as advanced economies struggle for growth.
投資者認為央行獨立性對於控制通脹至關重要，因為它允許官員專注於制定政策以應對潛在壓力。然而，在大流行後通脹激增以及發達經濟體增長困難的情況下，政治幹預的企圖一直在增加。
US inflation has fallen back from a peak of more than 9% in 2022, allowing the Fed to cut borrowing costs. However, if interest rates are reduced too quickly, there is a real danger inflation will jump out of the box again and really damage people on low incomes. If dollar inflation cannot be controlled, and many prices worldwide are set in dollar terms, the inability to control inflation will affect the entire global economy.
美國通脹已從 2022 年超過 9% 的峰值回落，使美聯儲能夠降低借貸成本。然而，如果利率降得太快，通脹再次失控的真正危險將真正傷害低收入人群。如果美元通脹無法控制，而全球許多價格都以美元計價，那麼無法控制通脹將影響整個全球經濟。
重點詞彙
- plunge into (phr.v.)：陷入，突然進入
- draw parallels (phr.v.)：與...相提並論，類比
- ultra-accommodative (adj.)：超寬鬆的（貨幣政策）
- pull back (phr.v.)：撤回，減少參與
- safe haven (n.phr.)：避風港，安全港
- scramble (v.)：爭搶，匆忙行動
- pretext (n.)：藉口，託詞
- underlying (adj.)：潛在的，根本的
- jump out of the box (phr.v.)：失控，失去控制
- meddle (v.)：幹預，干涉
- autonomy (n.)：自主權
- undermine (v.)：削弱，破壞
- spiral (v.)：螺旋式上升/下降
- erode (v.)：侵蝕，逐漸削弱
- confidence (n.)：信心
- backlash (n.)：強烈反對
- spillover (n.)：溢位效應
- at stake (phr.)：處於危險中
- credibility (n.)：可信度