美國債券市場應該反抗。美聯儲獨立性很重要
US bond markets should be in revolt. Fed independence matters
難度：進階
來源：The Guardian
The chair of the US Federal Reserve responded to news of a subpoena from the US Department of Justice with a statement that was extraordinary, necessary and stark. A criminal investigation into the Fed, and him personally, over the renovation of the central bank's headquarters is an attempt to bully officials into setting policy according to the president's whims, said the Fed chair.
美聯儲主席對司法部發出的傳票訊息做出了回應，發表了一份非同尋常、必要且直率的宣告。美聯儲主席表示，對美聯儲及其本人就央行總部翻修展開刑事調查，是試圖脅迫官員根據總統的意願制定政策。
On day one, financial markets took a ho-hum view of a scene that could come from a banana republic. The dollar weakened, but only slightly, and US treasuries suffered modest selling pressure. The sanguine reaction probably flows from a few factors: this affair could fizzle out, the Fed chair's term ends soon, and a whole Fed committee sets rates so the president can't impose his will overnight.
第一天，金融市場對可能來自香蕉共和國的場景反應平淡。美元走弱，但只是輕微，美國國債遭受了適度的拋售壓力。這種樂觀的反應可能源於幾個因素：這件事可能會不了了之，美聯儲主席的任期即將結束，而且整個美聯儲委員會設定利率，所以總統無法在一夜之間強加他的意願。
Yet the Fed chair is plainly right to sound the alarm because it is not hard to imagine how tensions could escalate, especially if the next debate on rates is more basic. This is a perilous moment for the US to mess with the principle that rate-setters under an independent system should be free of political pressure – and be seen to be so.
然而，美聯儲主席發出警告顯然是正確的，因為不難想象緊張局勢如何可能升級，特別是如果下一次關於利率的辯論更加基本的話。對於美國來說，這是一個危險的時刻，不應該破壞獨立制度下的利率制定者應該免受政治壓力——並且應該被視為如此——的原則。
The US is running an enormous fiscal deficit, and the data on unemployment and prices is giving mixed signals. While the headline growth numbers are still decent, momentum is slowing. A combination of hot inflation and more bets on the Fed's loss of independence would feed real rate concerns that could cause major dollar depreciation.
美國正在執行巨大的財政赤字，失業和價格資料給出了混合訊號。雖然總體增長數字仍然不錯，但勢頭正在放緩。通脹過熱和對美聯儲失去獨立性的更多押注相結合，將加劇實際利率擔憂，可能導致美元大幅貶值。
Any flight from US assets would only increase, via the bond markets, long-term borrowing costs for US businesses and consumers. Therein lies the self-defeating aspect of wrecking confidence in US monetary policymaking. A pre-emptive revolt in US bond markets would be useful at this point.
任何從美國資產的逃離只會透過債券市場增加美國企業和消費者的長期借貸成本。這就是破壞對美國貨幣政策制定信心的自相矛盾之處。此時，美國債券市場的先發制人式反抗將是有用的。
重點詞彙
- stark (adj.)：直率的，明顯的
- ho-hum (adj.)：平淡的，無趣的
- sanguine (adj.)：樂觀的，積極的
- fizzle out (phr.v.)：不了了之，逐漸消失
- perilous (adj.)：危險的，充滿風險的
- fiscal deficit (n.phr.)：財政赤字
- depreciation (n.)：貶值，折舊
- self-defeating (adj.)：自相矛盾的，自我挫敗的
- pre-emptive (adj.)：先發制人的，預防性的
- subpoena (n.)：傳票
- stark (adj.)：直率的，鮮明的
- bully into (phr.v.)：脅迫...做某事
- whim (n.)：一時衝動，突發奇想
- fizzle out (phr.v.)：逐漸消失，不了了之
- sound the alarm (phr.)：發出警報，敲響警鐘
- escalate (v.)：升級，惡化
- perilous (adj.)：危險的，險惡的
- fiscal deficit (n.phr.)：財政赤字
- mixed signals (n.phr.)：混合訊號，矛盾資訊
- flight from (n.phr.)：逃離，撤出
- self-defeating (adj.)：自相矛盾的，適得其反的
- pre-emptive (adj.)：先發制人的，預防性的